Gold price analysis October 9

9 באוק׳ 2024

Fundamental Analysis
Gold prices fell sharply on Tuesday following a strong US jobs report and news reports that Hezbollah backed calls for a ceasefire in the conflict between it and Israel. As a result, hints of a possible de-escalation of the Middle East conflict opened the door for traders to take profits. XAU/USD traded at $2,615, down more than 1%.

This prompted a sell-off in XAU/USD, which fell more than $35 to an intraday low of $2,604 before buyers took it to the current spot price. Additionally, rising US Treasury yields weighed on the non-yielding metal. The benchmark US 10-year yield remained unchanged above 4%, but has risen more than six basis points this week following last Friday's September Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report.

Against this backdrop, interest rate traders have adjusted their expectations for the next move by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Most Fed speakers have been gradual in their tone toward easing monetary policy. However, some, like St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, only expect one more cut by year-end after backing a 50 bps cut in September.

Technical Analysis
The Asian session range that we are paying attention to is around 2603 and 2627. The bottom support zone that the US session touched last night is also known as session support. The resistance zone is a breakout retest zone that the market respects. The upper range converges with the 34 EMA for a good trading plan in the Asian session. In the US session, the price range is wider with the price zone of interest around 2592 and the resistance of 2648 is considered a key price zone to hold the price from long declines.