According to the latest updated news, on the world market, the gold price today (July 21) plunged, hitting a 3-week low.
Specifically, the price of gold for August delivery on the Comex exchange fell $13, or 1%, to $1,319.3 an ounce, the lowest since June 28, according to FaceSet data. And the price of gold today on the Kitco floor is standing at 1,313.40 USD/ounce. Last session, the world gold price still increased and reached the highest level in nearly a week.
Analysts predict the possibility that the US Federal Reserve (FED) may raise interest rates later this year, speculators are taking profits after gold had a good session in early July. Meanwhile, on Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global growth forecast for the next two years, largely due to post-Brexit uncertainties.
Specifically, the price of gold for August delivery on the Comex exchange fell $13, or 1%, to $1,319.3 an ounce, the lowest since June 28, according to FaceSet data. And the price of gold today on the Kitco floor is standing at 1,313.40 USD/ounce. Last session, the world gold price still increased and reached the highest level in nearly a week.
Analysts predict the possibility that the US Federal Reserve (FED) may raise interest rates later this year, speculators are taking profits after gold had a good session in early July. Meanwhile, on Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global growth forecast for the next two years, largely due to post-Brexit uncertainties.
הערה:
Barnabas Gan, an analyst at OCBC Bank, thinks there is still room for a rate hike in the US. Gold, the precious metal that has rallied 25% this year, is quite sensitive to rate hikes, a development that increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.
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In addition, the recovery of USD also has an impact on the direction of gold. Earlier this morning, the US Dollar Index, which measures the volatility of the greenback, rose 0.51% to near 101, taking away gold's appeal to buyers of other currencies.
הערה:
World gold fell slightly before newly released US data showed that the labor market witnessed an uptrend. Specifically, the number of workers filing for unemployment benefits for the first time continued to decrease. The Labor Department said weekly jobless claims fell 9,000 to 228,000, down from last week's unverified estimate of 237,000. Economists expect jobless claims to rise to 239,000.
הערה:
The most active August 2023 gold contract fell $8.70 per ounce (or 0.44%) to 1972.10 dollars. The rally in the dollar has impacted the direction of gold prices. Accordingly, the US Dollar Index, which measures the volatility of the greenback, increased by 0.56% to 100,545 points.
הערה:
According to CME data
Price retest 1951. From there it will break the top, and go up strongly
Price retest 1951. From there it will break the top, and go up strongly
הערה:
Precious metals were also under pressure as the dollar rose. Recorded at 9:20 am on July 21, the US Dollar Index measures the volatility of the greenback with 6 key currencies at 100,495 points.
הערה:
Despite the drop in prices, precious metals are still at a two-month high. Many analysts believe that gold receives support when the market expects next week will be the last interest rate hike of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) of the monetary tightening cycle.
הערה:
For now, the market seems secure with a 25 basis point gain at next week's policy meeting. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, there is a 99.8% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed's policymaking body.
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Economists expect jobless claims to rise to 239,000.
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Expectations of a pause have hurt the dollar in recent weeks, while benefiting the gold market, as the interest rate outlook weakens.
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Many analysts say that gold is gaining in price as the market expects next week to be the last rate hike of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) of the monetary tightening cycle.
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Some forecasters say that this could be the beginning of a rally to $2,000/ounce of the precious metal
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However, gold is forecasted to be difficult to break through in the context of China's slow economic growth.
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In the second quarter of 2023, China recorded GDP growth of 6.3%, lower than the expectation of 6.9%.
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China's economic slowdown may lead to a decline in the country's demand for gold.
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In addition, the rise of the US stock market also reduced the cash flow into gold. Gold is very sensitive to a rise in US interest rates, as it increases the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal.
הערה:
Positive information from the labor market made investors return to take profit in gold. They believe that, when interest rates increase, the dollar will strengthen, making the opportunity cost of holding gold increase.
הערה:
Jim Wyckoff, market analyst, predicts that gold prices could rise to $2,000 an ounce if the Fed stops its rate-raising cycle after another hike this month.
הערה:
Technically, the bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Price is in a 3 week old uptrend on the daily bar chart.
הערה:
The bears' next near-term downside downside objective is to push futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $1,900.6 an ounce.
הערה:
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve said the manufacturing sector remains in trouble. The outlook for production and business in July is not very positive. The gold market did not have a strong reaction to this disappointing economic data.
הערה:
The labor market recovered strongly as the number of workers applying for unemployment benefits for the first time continued to decline. The number of weekly jobless claims fell by 9,000 to 228,000, the Labor Department said.
