Will gold break a new high on February 14

14 בפבר׳

Analysis of the latest gold market trends:
Analysis of gold news: Gold was trading at $2,938 per ounce in European trading on Friday, close to the record high of $2,942.68 set on Tuesday, and is expected to record gains for the seventh consecutive week. This rise not only reflects the increase in safe-haven demand, but is also consistent with the trend of global central banks increasing their gold holdings. Gold prices rose 2.4% this week, and the cumulative increase so far this year has reached 12%. The market generally believes that U.S. President Trump has announced plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on U.S. imported goods, exacerbating global trade concerns. In addition, U.S. inflation data showed that core PCE will decline. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.89%, recording its lowest closing price in nearly two months. U.S. bond yields also fell nearly 2% from their high in nearly three weeks, providing upward momentum for gold prices. During the day, we will pay attention to the monthly rate of US retail sales in January, the monthly rate of US import price index in January, the monthly rate of US industrial output in January, and the monthly rate of US commercial inventory in December. According to the data and trends released this week, and the overall market expectations that are favorable to gold prices, the US market is likely to be bullish. In this way, intraday operations are still bullish.

In addition to paying attention to Trump's policies, the market is also closely watching the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, because lower interest rates are usually good for gold because they do not generate interest income. Inflation data exceeded expectations, but core indicators were mild. The increase in the US producer price index (PPI) in January was higher than expected, but some core data of the personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE), which the Federal Reserve pays more attention to, were relatively mild. The market expects that if the PCE data is lower than expected, the Federal Reserve may maintain a dovish stance. The market is closely watching the PCE data released on February 28 to assess the possible policy path of the Federal Reserve. If the data is soft, the Federal Reserve may tend to cut interest rates in advance, thereby further boosting gold prices. "Investors are paying attention to the direction of the Fed's policy, and the lower interest rate environment will support the continued rise of gold. The gold market is currently supported by multiple factors, including trade policy uncertainty, inflation concerns, central bank holdings and the Fed's expectation of rate cuts. In the short term, market volatility is still large, but if Trump's policies increase economic uncertainty, gold may accelerate its rise and challenge the key psychological level of $3,000 per ounce. In terms of geopolitical situation, Trump has stated that Russia and Ukraine will participate in all peace talks together, and Netanyahu denied previous media reports that all parties agreed to continue to implement the ceasefire agreement. The war risk aversion situation is mixed, but in the current environment, the geopolitical situation risk is a thing of the past. Whether to negotiate or not, and The impact of non-reconciliation on the gold market has been ignored. If the fire continues, the gold price will gain more bullish momentum. If the fire is stopped, the gold price will not fall.

Gold technical analysis: From the perspective of daily technical analysis, the gold market has been ups and downs this week. On Tuesday, the gold price fell sharply after a surge, and finally closed with a negative line. This adjustment trend has attracted widespread attention in the market, and many investors have speculated whether the strong rise in gold is about to end. However, on Wednesday, the gold price fell first and then rose, showing strong resistance to decline and resilience. Immediately on Thursday, the gold price continued to rise and closed with a positive line, which fully demonstrated that the current gold market as a whole still maintains a strong trend. In terms of support and resistance level analysis, Below, we first need to focus on the support strength around $2,920.

This position is the high point of the oscillation range during the rise of the Asian and European sessions yesterday. According to the top and bottom conversion principle in technical analysis, the support role of this point is particularly critical when it falls back. Secondly, the support level of $2,908 should not be ignored. This is the low point when the US market fell back yesterday. In terms of upper resistance, first pay attention to the previous high of around $2,942-2,943. If the gold price continues to maintain a strong upward trend and successfully breaks through this resistance level, the next resistance level may be seen around $2,957. This position is the current resistance position of the rising channel formed byhigh and low points since the weekly line started the upward trend at the end of June 2024. On the whole, In terms of short-term gold operation ideas today, our team of professional and senior gold analysts recommends going long on pullbacks, supplemented by shorting on rebounds.

From the 4-hour analysis chart, today's support below is around 2910-2908, and the pressure above is around 2940-2945. The short-term bullish strong dividing line is around 2895-2900. The daily level stabilizes above this position and continues to follow the trend and buy at low levels. Shorting can only enter the market at key points.

Gold operation strategy:

1. Buy gold when it falls back to 2906-2913, and cover long positions when it falls back to 2885-90. Stop loss 2879, target 2936-2940; continue to hold after breaking!

15 בפבר׳

עסקה פעילה

Analysis of gold market trends next week:
Analysis of gold news: On Friday (February 14), gold prices fell sharply due to profit-taking, but are still expected to rise for the seventh consecutive week. Spot gold fell 1.53% to $2,882.23 per ounce, but the cumulative increase this week is still nearly 0.8%. On Tuesday, gold prices hit a record high of $2,942.70 per ounce. The sharp decline in U.S. retail sales in January put pressure on the dollar, but gold prices plummeted by about 1.5% on Friday and fell below $2,900 per ounce as traders took profits before the weekend. Data released on Friday showed that U.S. retail sales in January contracted by 0.9% month-on-month, far worse than the expected -0.1%. Gold prices fell sharply despite falling U.S. bond yields. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell 5 basis points to 4.48%. U.S. real yields, which are inversely correlated with gold prices, fell 4 basis points to 2.041%. Despite a sharp correction on Friday, gold prices still rose for the seventh consecutive week this week, mainly because U.S. President Trump promoted the "reciprocal tariff" policy, which triggered market concerns about the global trade war and further promoted safe-haven buying.

Technical analysis of gold: The gold market experienced a significant decline on Friday night, and the technical form showed a double top structure, which is usually regarded as a reversal signal, indicating that the market may enter a period of adjustment. From the perspective of technical indicators, the MACD indicator currently forms a dead cross at a high level, and the momentum column gradually shrinks, indicating that the market's upward momentum is weakening and the risk of decline is accumulating. At the same time, MA5 (5-day moving average) has crossed MA10 (10-day moving average), forming a dead cross signal of the short-term moving average, further confirming the market's adjustment needs. These technical signals all point to the possibility that gold may continue to pull back in the short term.

The 4-hour chart of gold rebounded yesterday at the 2940 line and then closed lower under pressure, pulling the moving average indicator to turn around, and the 4-hour chart rose slowly and fell quickly. The rise is a continuous rise of small broken Yang lines, and the big fall is a big Yin line with a small Yang line rebound correction and then a big Yin line down. The rise for five days and the fall for one day have lost nearly half of the rising space. At the same time, the 4-hour chart lost the middle track and weakened. The pressure of the middle track of the Bollinger Bands has also begun to move down to the 2900 line, and the hourly chart is flat. The short-term idea is still to fluctuate and fall, but the rhythm is slightly slower. Friday's scary data was bullish for gold prices. Gold rose slightly to 2933 and then fell all the way. The main reason was the weekend closing, which was caused by profit-making selling of long orders at high levels. It once fell below 2900 and gave a low of 2877 during the session, and finally closed at 2882.

After this high-level diving trend, the trend for next week is already clear. After the long sell-off, we can still find support positions at low levels to arrange long orders next week. From the hourly chart, gold price hit a new high of 2942 this week, and after the pullback at the end of last week, it has gone through two waves of pullbacks. 2865 below is a support reference, so you can open a long position above this position next Monday to look bullish; as for the suppression above, you can pay attention to the four-hour Bollinger band middle track 2908 and the starting and falling point 2930 at the end of the week. Taken together, in terms of short-term operation ideas for gold next week, our professional and senior gold analyst team recommends mainly shorting on rebounds, supplemented by longing on lows. The upper short-term focus will be on the 2903-2908 first-line resistance, and the lower short-term will focus on the 2865-2860 first-line support.

Gold operation strategy:

1. When gold rebounds, go short at the 2903-2908 line, stop loss at 2915, and target the 2880 line; continue to hold if the position is broken! Look down to 2860

16 בפבר׳

עסקה סגורה: היעד הושג

Gold's pullback has not changed the upward trend! Can it break through the new high next week?

The gold market has experienced significant price fluctuations this week. Despite the pullback, the overall upward trend remains unchanged. After hitting a record high of $2,942.70/oz, spot gold prices saw profit-taking and technical adjustments, but still recorded a nearly 0.8% increase this week. Market sentiment is complicated, but multiple factors still support the safe-haven demand for gold.

Market review this week:
Record highs and pullbacks: Spot gold hit a record high of $2,942.70/oz on Tuesday, and then pulled back due to profit-taking and technical pressure. Despite the pullback, gold is still on track for a seventh straight weekly gain.

Fundamental support:

Trump's tariff remarks: Trump's request to study reciprocal tariff measures has exacerbated global trade tensions, pushing up inflation expectations and risk aversion.

Weak US economic data: January retail sales data hit the largest drop in nearly two years, triggering market concerns about slowing US economic growth.

Weaker US dollar: The weak US dollar further supported gold prices.

Technical analysis: Gold prices failed to break through the record high, forming a potential double-top pattern, and short-term adjustment signals are obvious. However, the overall upward trend remains unchanged, and the technical support level is around $2,850/ounce.

Market outlook for next week:
Fundamental factors:

Trade policy: Trump's reciprocal tariff policy will continue to affect market sentiment and push up the safe-haven demand for gold.

US economic data: Weak retail sales data may exacerbate market concerns about economic slowdown and further support gold.

Fed policy: Despite inflationary pressure, the Fed may maintain the current interest rate policy, and gold prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level.

Technical outlook: If gold prices can remain above $2,880/ounce, there is still a possibility of breaking through the record high in the short term. If it falls below $2,850/ounce, it may trigger a further correction, but the downside is limited.

Market focus:

US economic data: Especially the subsequent impact of retail sales.

Fed meeting minutes: The market will pay attention to the Fed's response to the economic slowdown.

Global trade situation: The Trump administration's policy moves will continue to affect market sentiment.

Summary:
Although the gold market faces profit-taking and technical adjustment pressure in the short term, the long-term upward trend remains unchanged. Factors such as trade tensions, inflation expectations, a weak dollar and a slowing US economy will continue to support the safe-haven demand for gold. The market is expected to remain volatile next week, and investors should pay close attention to changes in economic data and policy trends. The medium- and long-term prospects for gold remain optimistic, and short-term volatility may intensify, but the overall upward trend remains unchanged.