AMAZING opportunity in GOLD. Price target 6000usd (3/3)
מעודכן
This is publication 3 out of 3.
Please give my idea a like if you found it useful.
Chart 1:
Chart 2:
History might not always repeat itself, but it often rhymes. The similarities between these charts are astonishing. The chart on the left shows us how the gold price was setting up before the parabolic bull run in the end of the 1970s. Check out the charts above for a closer look.
Gold is nearing the end of its long consolidation period. Gold is ridiculously undervalued at this price. With strong fundamental support, this Cup and handle pattern will launch the price of Gold into the sky.
Okay, so we have a buy setup here, but where did I get my price target from?
Why do I say 6000usd as ultimate target? Well, honestly, predicting the top is going to be very difficult. Maybe we go above 6k, or maybe we top out a little below. If we compare the fib levels to the parabolic bull run in the end of the 1970s, we can see that it wicked above the 4.236 fib level. Going to the 2.618 fib level at 5400, and even wicking above - up to the psychological level at 6000usd, is not unrealistic technically speaking. I would not be surprised if we even overshoot the 3.618 fib.
We also have a variety of different correlations that supports a big growth for Gold , like the gold to monetary base ratio.
I don't have the time right now to go in depth about all the fundamental factors in play here, but here are some pointers:
- Negative real interest rates
- Gold is a tier 1 asset - store of value
- Massive currency creation
---------> inflation inevitable, -> currency crisis
we can already see signs of inflation - commodity prices are soaring
As soon as money velocity speeds up again - inflation will accelerate
-Uncertain times and political instability -> People tend to put their money in a safe asset ( Gold = Safe haven) when times are uncertain
-More retail investors in the financial markets - we have seen a massive surge in retail investors and traders the past couple of years - people are becoming more informed about how the financial systems work. When crypto cools down, and all the new retail investors who thought crypto would be the best inflation hedge realise that they should diversify into other, less speculative, assets - such as Gold and other precious metals, we will gain a lot of momentum.
Please give my idea a like if you found it useful.
Chart 1:
Chart 2:
History might not always repeat itself, but it often rhymes. The similarities between these charts are astonishing. The chart on the left shows us how the gold price was setting up before the parabolic bull run in the end of the 1970s. Check out the charts above for a closer look.
Gold is nearing the end of its long consolidation period. Gold is ridiculously undervalued at this price. With strong fundamental support, this Cup and handle pattern will launch the price of Gold into the sky.
Okay, so we have a buy setup here, but where did I get my price target from?
Why do I say 6000usd as ultimate target? Well, honestly, predicting the top is going to be very difficult. Maybe we go above 6k, or maybe we top out a little below. If we compare the fib levels to the parabolic bull run in the end of the 1970s, we can see that it wicked above the 4.236 fib level. Going to the 2.618 fib level at 5400, and even wicking above - up to the psychological level at 6000usd, is not unrealistic technically speaking. I would not be surprised if we even overshoot the 3.618 fib.
We also have a variety of different correlations that supports a big growth for Gold , like the gold to monetary base ratio.
I don't have the time right now to go in depth about all the fundamental factors in play here, but here are some pointers:
- Negative real interest rates
- Gold is a tier 1 asset - store of value
- Massive currency creation
---------> inflation inevitable, -> currency crisis
we can already see signs of inflation - commodity prices are soaring
As soon as money velocity speeds up again - inflation will accelerate
-Uncertain times and political instability -> People tend to put their money in a safe asset ( Gold = Safe haven) when times are uncertain
-More retail investors in the financial markets - we have seen a massive surge in retail investors and traders the past couple of years - people are becoming more informed about how the financial systems work. When crypto cools down, and all the new retail investors who thought crypto would be the best inflation hedge realise that they should diversify into other, less speculative, assets - such as Gold and other precious metals, we will gain a lot of momentum.
הערה
If you want to know what I think happens in the near-term, you can take a look at the two charts I have tagged in the beginning. That is the most likely scenario in the near/medium term, IMO.I also believe it is possible we have a quick drop down towards 1500 level, so keep this in mind (be careful with leverage trading). If this happens, it will be an incredible opportunity to buy. This would probably result in a slingshot, where we get a lot of momentum and finally start to enter the parabolic phase in this supercycle.
Gold is already getting a lot of hate at the moment, but a drop like this would make everyone talk about "the death of gold", and how "bitcoin has taken its spot".
When an asset is getting a lot of hate, and no one wants it, that is when you should buy it. Remember the crypto winter that followed the 2017 bull run? Everyone was saying that crypto was dead and its glory days was in the past. Crypto was relatively new back then (and it still is), especially in the mainstream, so no one can really blame you for believing the crypto pessimists. Contrary to Bitcoin, Gold actually has a long history that proves its value. This is not the first time Gold has gotten a lot of hate. In the early 2000s, people thought you were crazy for buying Gold. We have a saying in my country that is often used by people in times like these - "That train has already left the station" - which basically means that youve missed your chance, and it won't present itself again. People have been saying things along those lines about gold MANY times. This is not the first time Gold has been deemed as "dead", and even though people with this belief have been proven wrong by history every time, there are still people going around telling this belief of theirs with extreme confidence - as if it is a fact.
Im rambling now, but anyways - my point is: You should not be shaken out by the FUD. Get educated, and stand by your belief. Gold is not dead yet, so why get out of a trade when the fun hasn't really started? Be greedy when others are fearful, and build your position before Gold becomes popular again.
Not financial advice of course. Do your own research, so that you can draw your own conclusions.
I might publish some charts on shorter time frames later.
הערה
Above you can see some potential routes for the silver price movement that I have drawn based on previous bull-runs and fib levels.
I just did it for fun, and I dont expect the price movement to follow it accurately. Silver is very manipulated, so I am not going to pretend that I can predict medium and long paths accurately. It is just to give you an idea of how it is possible for Silver to move. For price movement in Silver I usually use analyze gold, and then try to figure out how that would affect silver price.
The description is more important than the chart itself, and explains some reasons why I see more potential in silver than in Gold. Silver shares most of the fundamental factors with Gold, as to why we expect a bull-run, but silver also has other factors that makes silver even more bullish than gold in my opinion.
כתב ויתור
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