MQP PRESENTS - GOLD 8 YEAR BEAR PART 1
HEADER - U.S. COVID-19 excess deaths shifted the 2020-2023 demographics curve for 40-45 year old population (as well as everyone older) while Jerome Powell deftly avoided FED mistake of 1970's. This macro situation is happening with regressions indicating next move to 1840 will happen by mid July and 1750 by mid October.
SUMMARY - Move to 1840 by mid-July should eliminate bull outcome. Move to 1750 in September-October window will mark the start of 8-year gold bear market to end in 2031.
DETAILS - I expect first 8 bear boxes to hit. If and when it does, we will continue from there.
SUMMARY - Move to 1840 by mid-July should eliminate bull outcome. Move to 1750 in September-October window will mark the start of 8-year gold bear market to end in 2031.
DETAILS - I expect first 8 bear boxes to hit. If and when it does, we will continue from there.
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NOTES 1 - BULL OUTCOMEהערה
a) for chart above:b) I HAVE done work on that outcome
c) God knows I have spent 7+years trying to find route up
d) this time I have enough conviction in my understanding of fundamentals to say bear outcome is going to happen
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e) for both gold and silver f) I the meantime there's also this:
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7/05, 11:51 PM UPDATE1) for chart above:
2) it looks like price is setting up for that box
3) but current odds on 9-, 18-, and 36-day regressive trend say lower low still favored
4) however, floor for July is now 1854 and slowly climbing
5) ceiling is 1973 and very slowly falling
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6) meanwhile, my diligence in fundamentals has progressed while its value has regressed7) that means that I reached a higher grasp of fundamentals
8) but that higher understanding has placed he coming September decision in gold markets FIRMLY IN A GRAY AREA
9) my intuition (which has had a dismal record in these spots), say bear still favored
10) trend engines overall still firmly in bull camp
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11) so all this implies nothing meaningful likely until after Jackson Hole, so late Augustהערה
SUNDAY JULY 9TH, 11:07 PM ET, 1924.xx1) everything under 48 days is forming a vertical spike up to 1968-ish
2) when?
3) today, Monday, Tuesday
4) maybe even Wednesday
5) CPI and PPI are due this week 8:30 AM ET Wed & Thurs respectively
6) what does this all mean?
7) I really don't know
8) we are PAST the point of spiking down
9) why we are not at 1970 yet is very strange
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TUESDAY JULY 11TH, BINARY MAPPING1) the lack of strong bullish price action up to this point (defined as 1965-1975 by now...
2) is just a bit strange considering what long and medium term prices suggest
3) so in order to have some clarity, here is an almost completed binary map
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4. so what now?5. nothing worth trading until September
6. see where the red hilight zone end Sep-Oct window?
7. the reason this binary map is not completed...
8. is bc the spike up in theory should hit 2140
9. the bull route looks really aggressive
10. should know more by late August
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JULY 11TH, BINARY MAPPING BULL UPDATE:a) for chart above
b) it should be like that
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c) continuing...d) so bull route says 2080 BEFORE JACKSON HOLE IN LATE AUGUST
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JULY 11TH, COILING MOMENTUM BULL SCENARIOa) for chart above:
b) on the short time frames within 4-5 days out, this is THE TECHNICAL FAVORITE
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c) if we consider only a week out, so by end of next Monday, the favorite would be a vertical to 2040-2050 d) this would have to start by Wed or Thurs, finishing Friday if early or Monday if late
e) this implies that the reason we're not at 1970 now, is bc price wants higher BUT A BIT LATER
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f) to sum this up, it's 7/11 2PM ET, we are 1932g) a minor inflection point is in the forecast the next 6 days
h) if gold intends to maintain bull position, we should be 2045 by end of next Monday, 7/17
i) if gold intends to break down, we should be 1870 by end of next Tuesday 7/18
j) nothing else until then
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k) except for this:l) for chart above, there's what that looks like on 45 min bars
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JULY 11TH, 4:00 PM ET, looks like the bear is dead. Here is next week's price action:
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a) for chart above:b) that's the favorite for ALL TRENDS COMBINED, especially next 5 days
c) meanwhile, our bear route is dead but not buried yet
d) so this post has ended
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.