זהב / דולר אמריקאימעודכן 2350-2600-3300-5000: DRAFT 6-1
Introduction - This is the last series for GOLD's rally. The bulls in their hubris have offended the GOLD gods which demand that 2100-2110 be tested on or before 03/28 ahead of Good Friday. This also means the true support trend line since 1983 will be tested. This is DRAFT 6-1 because if bulls fail to defend this line and move higher to 2340 AHEAD OF MAY 1ST NFP, IT WILL BE OVER.
Details - Will add in time.
Details - Will add in time.
הערה
03/22, 12:57 PM ET - NOTES 1) in DRAFT 5 last night, I projected 2 routes gray and blue
2) it seemed at 2180 this morning that bulls chose blue
3) however, it was obvious by 10:30 AM that bulls may not show up this afternoon
4) I said hour ago that there were NO SIGNS that they will show up
5) by this time there ARE SIGNS they will not
6) that means 2155 maybe even 2150 gets hit this afternoon
7) in their hubris and clamor for 2350 and higher...
8) the bulls have angered the GOLD gods
9) which now demand 2100-2110 AND THE TRUE SUPPORT SINCE 1983 be tested
10) either by coincidence or by designs of the devine or the banks needing to get out of their shorts...
11) their happen minimum-intensity of event driven news next week
12) how so?
הערה
a) full moon on Monday 03/25 for those who careb) next week.. no ADP, no NFP, no FOMC, no CPI, no PPI
c) since 03/29 is good Friday
d) the stars have been aligned with classical TA and BFS trend engine..
e) to spot that 2100-2110 low on THURSDAY 03/28
הערה
f) hold on, that channel is off...g) meaning low should be 2105-2115
הערה
1:34 PM UH OH... watch out for 2149a) having tagged 2157 by now, the selling is in a tight spiral down
b) this means odds of taking out 2152 is very high
c) this also means gold may close NY AT THE LOW
d and CONTINUE SELLING IN THE AFTERMARKET
e) earlier I saw that the limit was 2149
f) that my hit, which push max pain to 2145
הערה
2:06 PM 2160.xx bulls trying for dead cat bounce to prevent collapse to 45הערה
2:34 62.70 bulls prevented collapse to 45 for nowa) but they need to hold above 63
b) they are drifting down now
c) if they do not hold flat for next 85 minutes...
b) bears will get to 45 any way, before NY opens on Monday
הערה
2:55 PM bears still pushing for a close at the low under 56a) trying to make a point of it I guess
b) but unless something changes soon
c) close at the low and then down more in after market
d) that trend still in place as I type
e) have a good weekend
הערה
3:32 PM Bulls got the message and held 63 a) not sure if that's good enough to change anything
b) but it will delay reach and break of 2145
c) and until it breaks, there is no breaks
d) maybe, just maybe, the GOLD gods changed their mind
e) and now favor a route to DRAFT 5's reversal
f) raw odds however, vehemently disagree with that assertion
g) at least for now...
הערה
2:41 PM ETa) it would seem we have a last second change of mind
b) we will see...
c) yes we will
הערה
2:42 what will it take for us to know...a) that the GOLD gods now favor the bulls, and a way back to DRAFT 5?
b) there two targets bulls NEED TO hit in the next 77 minutes of trading
c) 2172 and 2180
d) they of course mean different things
e) but they have a small window to pull it off, with so little time left
f) can they do it??
הערה
4:57 PM 2165.xx after rejection at 67a) what does that mean?
b) the GOLD gods while angered at the bulls for hubris...
c) nevertheless recognize the bulls' reasons for behaving so - for lack of a better word - bullishly
d) they have withheld final judgment on this DRAFT 5 vs DRAFT 6
e) but the bears only have a 4.5 day window until Good Friday
f) this means the longer that decision is withheld (by sideways price action) ...
g) the less likely of a break of today's 2157 low
h) and the stronger the odds of hard swinging back up like DRAFT 5...
i) so be careful Monday which ever way you are
הערה
WRAP UP:הערה
a) in chart above: if gray route happens, it will play out like DRAFT 5b) same idea, different rhythm
c) probably mirror image hi-lo switch but same ending in June
d) if not, the dates and the support levels say DRAFT 6 should hit
e) in either case, that's the 2 ways you get to JUNE
f) in the strange outcome that support in chart at top fails at 2100
g) that's an annoying problem I don't want to deal with
h) but the weak price action in AG has me wondering
i) bc AG only made its 8 year low on 02/13 when gold hit 1983
j) that's really late for the bull story if we only have 20-22 months left
k) that there covers it all until 6/12
l) have a good one
הערה
OBSERVATION:1) the weekly bar is ugly too
2) it's hard to argue with
3) every time the wick is that long...
4) next week has been terrible
5) so in that sense, I doubt it turns back up
הערה
6) just watch those two trend lines in chart above7) if it doesn't break, then it doesn't break
הערה
3/22, 11:57 PM ET, FINAL THOUGHTS UNTIL JUNE FOMC:הערה
3/23, 9:08 AM ET, I understand it now...1. after checking for inverse of ratios more thoroughly, I get how it can go to 2110
2. but that would still favored no spike down vs spike down 2:1 or even 3:1
3. but the reasoning is simply this: will these two lines break or not, that seems to be the difference maker
הערה
הערה
4. for chart above, just wait to see if they break or not5. it's one of those strange things that price insist on doing and it only breaks pattern...
6. ... if it breaks pattern
הערה
9:57 AM, I'm going to make a 6-2 to cover all of ita) this thing looks like it wants to make giant triangle
b) on the smaller scale it does this a lot with this pattern
c) but you don't ever get to triangles this big but it looks JUST LIKE IT'
d) especially if it checks to 2125-2100 etc... it's like perfect triangle pattern
e) with a swing of 250+ pts breaking 2350 on 4/10
f) remember when we did 2150 by 03/08 and it eventually took THE UNLIKELY ROUTE??
g) this is the perfect unlikely route, except that on a fractal basis... it's perfect
h) whatever, I'll post it soon
הערה
THIS POST HAS ENDED, I WAS ON 6-2: 
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