GOLD ANALYSIS|MARKET MAKERS DEAL|THREE SCENARIOS EXPLAINED

17 ביוני 2020

Hello friends,
To begin with, Gold is clearly in the uptrend on monthly, weekly and daily timeframes. Therefore shorts work with smaller probability. Just keep that in mind.

The asset is near a very important level of 1800 and the area around it, so some accumulation before a breakout attempt is expected. We are currently trading in a range , which is crossed by a diagonal support line.

I am convinced that the 1800 level will be tested sooner than later, so It might be so that the diagonal support stands and we see the red resistance breakout and then we might go long after pullback.This is a scenario when there is no volumes left to collect on these levels, and market makers will push the market higher, speeding up the events. That is scenario 1(black arrows)

However, this would be too easy, and the alternative scenario(blue arrows) is that the diagonal support gets broken and the range trading continues for some time.
This scenario is easy to trade, with the key question being: which way does the range go in the end. Well, the answer is that trading is probabilistic so we cant know, and therefore we will trade the range until a breakout either way. If the range breaks out higher, then the long scenario is valid again.
By the way, ranges are the ideal money making setups for market makers, which is more obvious in stocks, but remains valid for other assets too. Ride small waves, spook retail traders and collect the stops.

Scenario 3, is a breakout lower, and a short after a pullback. Gold market makers need liquidity and should they get a chance, read, if the buying is sloppy, they will push the mkt below the level, to collect retail traders stops and ride a way down to collect the volume. There, the market will accumulate strength to finally test the 1800 level/area.

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