Lower Gold Price might indicate on more up move for Stockmarkets
מעודכן
Gold might be one indiactor to get an idea about the further direction of global stockmarkets. A falling gold price XAUUSD might indicates that "fear" is slowing down.
I am publishing this idea to follow up if "fear" might disappear in the next 10-20 trading days.
הערה
Keep an eye also on the 30 YTThe weekly chart indicates an interesting pattern. I will discuss XAUUSD and 30 YT here to follow up if this might be positiv for the stockmarkets for one more leg "up" - vice versa to close long positions.
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עסקה פעילה
Long 30 YT, Short Yield 30Y T930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.r96.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_1ad934d7f0eb2ad1f46768b2a4489c5d.png
Short XAUUSD
930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.r96.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_ea414d141bcf61ff35e7f1fdfe719339.png
Some words about this all:
If ever you have an (up) trend, the support for Stockmarkets (or any Market) is "roatating". Maybe a rally starts with shortcovering, than fundamentals changes and finally buyers come in - the reasons why a stockmarket is going up are changing.
Do you remember February 11th, 2.23 pm? A rumor about "freeze" in oil production turned the overall stockmarket arround. The following weeks and month the SPY followed directely CL.
What i guess now is that falling interest rates and falling XAUUSD might trigger the algos an will push the stockmarket again higher - even a lot of sentiment indicators flagging that this move is come to an end soon.
The view is short term only from --> my perspective. I am usually looking for long trends and trades only. 30YT and XAUUSD is "short trem based" (from my perspective). The outlook ist 10-20 trading days or at least one or two month for this bias.
But i am definitely expecting tailwind both from 30Yt and XAUUSD to push stockmarkets a final leg higher until end of this year and will follow up this issue day by day now.
עסקה פעילה
Watch Gold to accellerate the downtrend momentum in the next trading days:930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.r96.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_8569c825a8566771208aab51d49fcb88.png
הערה
.Gold misses today to recover. The rally failed. Watch Monday for more downside Momentum.
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עסקה פעילה
Gold settles lower as U.S. markets await 20,000 DowCommodities (Dec 21, 2016 03:46PM ET)
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nvesting.com - Gold prices strained mightily to settle higher, but closed lower for the day as the greenback retreated from a 14-year record.
Gold for February delivery, GCG7, -0.03% , ended down 40 cents, a decrease of less than 0.1%, at $1,133.20 per troy ounce.
The bad news follows yesterday's disappointing outcome when the precious metal endured another decline, a 0.8% loss.
Gold’s price remains weak as the DJIA plods along, attempting to reach the coveted milestone of 20,000.
The market closed at a record on Tuesday, and the new highs for equities are lessening the appetite for the precious metal, which is viewed as a safe haven.
Source:
investing.com/news/commodities-news/gold-settles-lower-as-u.s.-markets-await-20,000-dow-449271
הערה
Gold flirts with 11-month lows after positive U.S. dataCommodities14 minutes ago (Dec 22, 2016 09:00AM ET)
Investing.com - Gold prices fell towards last week's 11-month lows on Thursday, after data showed that the U.S. economy grew faster than initially estimated in the third quarter, notching its best performance in two years.
Gold for February delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange dipped $3.00, or 0.25%, to $1,130.15 a troy ounce by 9:00AM ET (14:00GMT). Prices of the yellow metal sank to $1,124.30 last week, a level not seen since February 2.
The Commerce Department said the U.S. economy grew 3.5% in the three months ended September 30, up from a previous estimate of 3.2% and improving from growth of 1.4% in the second quarter.
Source: investing.com/news/commodities-news/gold-flirts-with-11-month-lows-after-positive-u.s.-data-449420
הערה
XAUUSD: set up for another leg down:930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.r96.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_79d628b8ecf7400f465d3fc5f50fcd5e.png
הערה
For me this is a perfect analysis about what will might comes next. Retail Investors Sentiment for Stockmarkets are now up to 100 (!) % negativ and allmost 90 % positiv for Gold. In this numbers the further direction of Gold in my opinion might can be read.
הערה
This analysis above in my opinion is alomst perfect.You will find the author here:
tradingview.com/u/amanpaulbhogal/
הערה
Amans Idea again and i think he will be right. Stockmarkets showing set ups now for another strong move to the upside. If ever this might occur gold might fall sharply. 
Thx to my friends Aman, Pasha and James to follow up this idea.
הערה
If ever there might be any link between Gold and Stockmarkets than gold might be a "fear" indikator. The Cboe Intraday Put Call Ratio is rising as well indicating that stockmarkets might start a new leg to the upside. Gold might drop sharply nd quick to 1.000 US-Dollar.90efcf5696fb6d91896e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_e702ea00029945351f432d27aa9a25a6.png
הערה
Today´s fear Indicators (Stockmarkets):Vix: invst.ly/33foo
Cboe Intra-day Put/Call Ratio: 1,12
הערה
Gold is breaking now the last uptrend wich i suppose was a coutertrend rally.invst.ly/33ors
invst.ly/33ost
I am watching Gold as an indikator (fear) to forecast the next upmove for stockmarkets. For me it looks like starting by today this might happen now.
הערה
I follow gold as "fear" indicator. There is one more fear indicator showing that "fear" is going to leave the markets followed by optimism. Almost no one is expectig this right now.
הערה
Jan. 25 2017Gold is falling now for the second day in a row to set the biggest loss (22 USD) since gold rebounded on December 23rd. Same time the DJIA today is crossing 20.000 for the first time.
invst.ly/352gj
הערה
MAR 02 2017: Gold rose much more as expected January indicating ongoing fears. Same time stockmarkets rising to multi year highs or all time highs. Gold is a huge miss in my analysis. If ever prices might go lower again it would indicate that i underestimate "fears" - but same time i would indicate as well that stockmarkets might go much higher than widely expected.הערה
MAR 08 2017: The next election in Netherlands in 7 days from now is showing deteriorating polls for the Dutch far right party. Fears about something like a break up of the European Union had been well over done. Gold is reacting to this now by a sharp down trend since 8 trading days.הערה
MAR 09 2017: There are lot of reasons why gold is falling day by day now. But this new downtrend starts same day opinion polls in Europe starts to rule out that far right parties might win the next both elections and might break up the European Union and the EURO. If ever Gold is still a fear indicator than the huge run to the upside is showing that fears had been high in the last 8 weeks - and much higher than i expected.הערה
Comment: MAR 22 2017: Gold hits 3-week peak as investors ditch equities on Trump worriesQuote: Gold climbed to a three-week high on Wednesday as the dollar fell to near six-week lows and bond yields sank on uncertainty over the economic policies of President Donald Trump. Spot gold rose 0.45 percent to $1,250.15 per ounce.
The lack of a concrete policy from the Trump administration is increasing gold's attraction as a safe-haven investment, analysts and traders said. Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/21/gold-prices-hold-firm-as-equities-slide-on-trump-policy-worries.html
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