BTC - Bubble Hyperwave - Take 3
Third Analysis of a potential BTC Bubble Hyperwave formation. See linked charts for related hyperwave analyses on The Dow Jones and Amazon.
2 Mirrored Gann Fans (blue dotted lines) were placed with the origin at $1,000 in March 2017 and the centre at $20,000 in December 2017.
Orange vertical lines indicate the beginning of 2019, 2020 and 2021.
Purple horizontal lines are key price levels.
Purple numbers and corresponding solid lines are Elliot Wave (EW) counts.
The purple bar pattern is from bitcoin during March 2017 to May 2018.
The lowest trend line (blue dashed) is the phase 2 hyperwave trend. Traditionally, when this line is broken down on a weekly closing basis, the probability of a hyperwave reverts to 0%. However, hyperwaves have occurred in the past following phase line breakdowns.
I believe that the recent drop is a bear trap triggered by market manipulation. My theory is that price was artificially supported at 5800 to allow for a market drop and rebound at the end of the 2018 - a valuable opportunity for market manipulators to enter at a low price before strong growth.
I estimated the phase 3 trend line (purple dashed) from the angle of the central Gann line (alternating purple and blue dashed). This was placed at the most recent weekly closing price and predicts a breakout over $20,000 in mid 2019.
I have placed EW 3 at $150,000 at the end of 2019. The timing of this peak was derived from the end of phase 5 in my Dow Jones hyperwave prediction. The price point was derived from the intersection of the Gann Fann and the local big even price level.
EW 4 was placed at approximately $50,000 in mid 2020. This corresponds with the timing of the Dow Jones phase 6 bounce, as well as the intersection of the Gann fan, the phase 3 trend line, and the big even price level.
I cannot yet predict the timing or extent of EW 5 (phase 4 of the hyperwave). However, I believe that it will reach into the millions by 2030.
2 Mirrored Gann Fans (blue dotted lines) were placed with the origin at $1,000 in March 2017 and the centre at $20,000 in December 2017.
Orange vertical lines indicate the beginning of 2019, 2020 and 2021.
Purple horizontal lines are key price levels.
Purple numbers and corresponding solid lines are Elliot Wave (EW) counts.
The purple bar pattern is from bitcoin during March 2017 to May 2018.
The lowest trend line (blue dashed) is the phase 2 hyperwave trend. Traditionally, when this line is broken down on a weekly closing basis, the probability of a hyperwave reverts to 0%. However, hyperwaves have occurred in the past following phase line breakdowns.
I believe that the recent drop is a bear trap triggered by market manipulation. My theory is that price was artificially supported at 5800 to allow for a market drop and rebound at the end of the 2018 - a valuable opportunity for market manipulators to enter at a low price before strong growth.
I estimated the phase 3 trend line (purple dashed) from the angle of the central Gann line (alternating purple and blue dashed). This was placed at the most recent weekly closing price and predicts a breakout over $20,000 in mid 2019.
I have placed EW 3 at $150,000 at the end of 2019. The timing of this peak was derived from the end of phase 5 in my Dow Jones hyperwave prediction. The price point was derived from the intersection of the Gann Fann and the local big even price level.
EW 4 was placed at approximately $50,000 in mid 2020. This corresponds with the timing of the Dow Jones phase 6 bounce, as well as the intersection of the Gann fan, the phase 3 trend line, and the big even price level.
I cannot yet predict the timing or extent of EW 5 (phase 4 of the hyperwave). However, I believe that it will reach into the millions by 2030.
הערה
Below is a summary of the two fundamental factors at play in this prediction:1. An economic depression is about to begin.
There is a very high probability that the global economy is about to enter a depression as severe as the Great Depression of 1929. Evidence for this is as follows:
- The Dow Jones, Netflix, Amazon and the German Stock Index have completed the first 4 phases of a hyperwave, and all have broken the fourth phase trend line. This is an extremely rare formation that occurs during bubbles, and provides an almost certain forecast of a complete correction to the level before the wave began. This means a 95% loss over the next decade.
- This waveform occurred during the roaring 20s and the great depression, which was a direct result of the long term debt cycle. The long term debt cycle lasts for 75-100 years, it has been 90 years since the great depression.
- When the market data from the Dow Jones during the roaring 20s and great depression is plotted over the Dow Jones during the current hyperwave, it predicts the correction to complete by 2030. This would be 45 years from trough to trough, which is one Kondratiev cycle.
2. Bitcoin will act as the global hedge against all fiat currencies in an event known as a "Flight to Safety" - resulting in an inverse correlation between the collapsing economy and the bitcoin boom.
- The depression will cause a currency crisis due to the loss of confidence in the economy and the banking system. As the strength of the global reserve currency (USD) falls, the US government will be unable to pay its $21 Trillion debt, and will be forced to print money in an attempt to prevent sovereign default. This will exacerbate the problem by increasing inflation, leading to hyperinflation and demonetisation. This will redefine all fiat currencies from a secure asset, to a risk asset.
- Simultaneously, Bitcoin will be redefined from a risk asset to a secure asset. This is because bitcoin is a limited supply currency which cannot be inflated, it is not controlled by the failing banking system or the government, and it is globally accessible by any individual.
- Gold and Silver are no longer in as high demand from industrial applications, and this demand will decrease as the economy contracts. They have traditionally acted as hedges in these situations, but will likely be outcompeted by the superior alternative - bitcoin.
הערה
Potential manipulation to hold a false floor and overshoot the correction during the bear trap:הערה
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