$BTC Updated

25 בספט׳

BTC Update

Fade the range nearly complete ✅, preparing for a breakout, I'm long

So, last series of updates, we've called out the bottom early in August, pretty much on the day that it happened, but emphasized that the market still wasn't ready to break out yet. Instead, we wanted to see a fade-the-range setup play out. We called out the mid 50's POI to be the higher low and sure enough, that is exactly what we're seeing. We used that POI to buy spot and those positions are comfy once again, where we got away with buying the range low for the fourth time in a row now.

And now that the fade the range is nearly finished and reaches resistance into our promised eventuality of our big Astro Block magnet zone, the question rises if this will reject again. And personally, I think it's time to be careful with staying stuck in a mindset of trading the range, which has worked for 6 months now. Because we know the market likes to catch you on those times.

So according to the post I made yesterday, I do indeed believe the highly accurate data we presented and we indeed break out. And if BTC does, it rarely likes to give many opportunities to get long, so I entered partially here and will add if the zone lower is given.

Price action

So indeed, nice move off our daily POI we had in mind for a few weeks as the higher low bottom. Price pushed cleanly back into the range from the low, leaving a CME gap and weekly open underneath, a large one by the aggressive nature of the move off the low. Clean break back inside the range and a back test as well as clean respect of the midrange, confirming the validity of our range and our analysis. I would typically expect range mid to retest before breaking out (the H6 zone), but because #bitcoin likes to not give too many chances, it's from experience important to not put too much weight on it IMO. As being too patient results in missing out which is also detrimental for your performance ('patient' setups are more likely to run to your SL).

For targets I like firstly the cluster above and our long promised Astro Block, but I'm going to leave runners and TP less aggressive as I am indeed expecting a big breakout.

Order flow

Most important is the spot leading market and absence of perps CVD showing takers are driving the market which is healthy. We did see a high spike in OI whilst shorts were being liquidated which means there are a fair few late longs in the system here but they are already exiting. So certainly some support for a shallow pullback here into the H6, but again not too much weight on it because OI is not excessive. It's perfectly possible to have another push up, then the high push in OI above ATH's and then the quick pullback to rinse it, before continuation. So a pullback isn't necessary, but healthy and would not surprise me.

TPO

Still waiting on our overall TPO naked POC's to be tapped above and we have a trend set of taking upside POC's which is always likely to continue as we know. Shallow POC's are always possible to be taken out so again the one at 60k would be the worst case IMO.

Order book

Order books show the market is set to range, nothing out of the ordinary since it's Monday. But walls below are clearly thicker and our chaotic stacks we typically like to see as they're more genuine and less likely spoofs. If they choose to be filled, that's again the shallow pullback scenario before higher, also showing itself in the order books.

Plan

So, plan leads to expecting a shallow pullback but not putting too much weight on it. So decided to fill longs partially at this very price we are right now of 62.2k and adding if we tap the H6 zone. The idea is to hold for longer as my thesis has been very clear on how I expect us to actually break out for the first time in 6 months. A tough call to make and as far as I'm aware, I was one of the few to make it, as well as calling the August bottom and 54k higher low as there was a lot of fear out there I'm sure you all remember. Things look a lot different now but it doesn't mean I am afraid now that people are catching on as the positioning isn't happening in ways that suggest exhaustion, rather late longs, flush, repeat on the backbone of a strong spot bid into clean price action and timing that makes perfect sense.

If I am all wrong on this and the market rolls over and we lose 54k, I don't think that is good news, as that means the range breaks to the downside by our thesis, for a sustained move down. So my backup play is indeed to not only get out of longs then, but also enter breakdown shorts as the market is clearly set for a big move down.

Don't think that is likely though due to all our analysis posted prior. But I like backup plans to not be fully caught by surprise. But know that I have been on the thesis of an August bottom and nothing has changed, and I am indeed positioned for that, in a way to both not miss out on the move, have extra maneuverability for a shallow pullback, but not get surprised on the low chance #BTC fails as it's very typical to get frozen out during times of a long range ending.