BTCUSD ~ Post-capitulation resolution & analysis
מעודכן
So we all got a kick in the teeth, and a big reminder: these assets are still manipulated by super economic interests (such as the Chinese govt, wall street, banks...)
We also got a firm reminder that crypto markets always need to cleanse themselves of DEGENS and SHITCOINS. (Like DOGE and all the SHIBA AKI INU MOBI KIKU BISU MOON MOON! degen nonsense)
Capitulation events like this are CAUSED BY degens, shitcoins, and too much "moonboi" sentiment.
The sooner we can cleanse them out, put them down to $0 where they belong, the better.
This happens every bull cycle: tons of shitcoins and junk flood the market.....when the bullrun is over, these shitcoins will all disappear.
Happens every single time.
But lets also realize: We saw amazing growth since the start of the year, and 5 full months of parabolic activity comes at the cost of major FUD, manipulation, and dumps like this.
The important thing to understand however, is ***WHY***
Why? Because the big money interests want to make more money by manipulating the market, causing retailers to FUD and sell, so they can buy back again cheaper.
Which is what they are doing right now....we are in an accumulation phase for big money to buy big orders OTC.
We saw massive amounts of big money sell offs, massive media FUD, we even saw the Chinese govt "re-announce" their legislation from 2013 just to throw more fuel on the FUD-FIRE (despite the "news" being 8 years old...).
It all came while these same people and entities were selling their coins, after which they caused the market to crash, and then the exact same people are buying up coins at market lows all over again.
Who loses money in these cycles? Anyone who sells, loses money.
Did I sell a single crypto?
Not a single one.
I measure my wealth in BTC, so why would I ever sell it for fiat?
So -- what are the markets doing now?
Right now I think we will see another bit of sideways movement in this area. We could break above and form another sideways channel, but we will be going relatively sideways for days, weeks, or even months.
I think that by end of June we should start to see some movement. Could be earlier, but I dont think it will be much later.
We are still in a bull market, and this capitulation still showing incredibly strength:
1) BTC put in a price floor of $3800 in March 2020. 14 months later in May 2021 BTC put in a price floor of
29K which is 9X permanent value locked in 14 months. Bullish enough?
2) You will never be able to buy BTC again below this price. (Is it possible the elites will try another FUD campaign to dump price lower? Yes....is it likely to work? No...)
3) Banks and institutions are continuing to pile in, but are keeping the "news" quiet now so they can accumulate quietly without moving the price up. Most of this trading is also being done OTC so it doesnt directly affect price at all (it has no direct price effect on market order books because its bought directly from miners and suppliers = OTC = over the counter trades)
4) On-chain analysis shows that we are actually seeing new-comers to crypto with bigger than usual wallet sizes, dumping their coins at a loss. Who is buying? Mostly retailers who are not as new to the markets. This is actually an incredibly good sign, because it means individual people are not selling and are actually buying; while newbies are being manipulated by FUD and are losing their money (selling at loss). Remember: institutions and big money are buying OTC so you dont see their buys on the exchanges, and they dont move the price up.
5) There has been a net DECREASE to whale wallet #'s. Which is normal when price dips, but the decrease is bigger than the dip is, which means allot of people that bought recently and cant handle the volatility are FUD-selling at a loss, or just taking profits if they still have a little bit of profit left.
Looking forward, I'm trying to find as much dry-powder as I can to buy more over the next few weeks before we resume bullrun.
We have at minimum til the end of this year for this bullrun to complete; possibly even longer into 2022 Q1 or Q2 - but I am very conservative.
As always I'll be selling 10% of my cryptos between october-january where I feel we are starting to see ATH's again, and as always, i'll never sell the top because thats just impossible to do.
I only sell a maximum of 20% of my cryptos at ATH bullrun cycles and then I just save it in stablecoins until bear market lows.
Meanwhile, stablecoins and cryptos will generate 8% to 50% APY yield, for a year or so until I start buying again...
I might actually be taking a break from crypto markets for a few weeks. Enjoy the summer. Travel a bit now that restrictions are lifting. Put in my buy orders and come back in a month or two.
I really dont want to miss buying opportunity right now, but hopefully my orders will fill even if I'm not watching it daily/weekly.
If I do, see you back in July/August!
My conservative goals this bullrun for BTC is still above 100k. I've moved my sell TPs a bit lower because of this capitulation, but only from 150k to 135k or so.
These are my most conservative numbers, and my higher TP's still go up above 200k for BTC by the end of this bullrun. Those TPs may or may not be reached, but I'd be happy either way and consider this a super successful bullrun.
Timeline estimates are between october to january when we see our final market TOPs.
As stated, our next bear market bottom should still be above 20k level and I am highly optimistic that we will never see BTC below 30k again after this bull run is over.
So - I am buying right now.....I just wish I had more powder to buy with!
We also got a firm reminder that crypto markets always need to cleanse themselves of DEGENS and SHITCOINS. (Like DOGE and all the SHIBA AKI INU MOBI KIKU BISU MOON MOON! degen nonsense)
Capitulation events like this are CAUSED BY degens, shitcoins, and too much "moonboi" sentiment.
The sooner we can cleanse them out, put them down to $0 where they belong, the better.
This happens every bull cycle: tons of shitcoins and junk flood the market.....when the bullrun is over, these shitcoins will all disappear.
Happens every single time.
But lets also realize: We saw amazing growth since the start of the year, and 5 full months of parabolic activity comes at the cost of major FUD, manipulation, and dumps like this.
The important thing to understand however, is ***WHY***
Why? Because the big money interests want to make more money by manipulating the market, causing retailers to FUD and sell, so they can buy back again cheaper.
Which is what they are doing right now....we are in an accumulation phase for big money to buy big orders OTC.
We saw massive amounts of big money sell offs, massive media FUD, we even saw the Chinese govt "re-announce" their legislation from 2013 just to throw more fuel on the FUD-FIRE (despite the "news" being 8 years old...).
It all came while these same people and entities were selling their coins, after which they caused the market to crash, and then the exact same people are buying up coins at market lows all over again.
Who loses money in these cycles? Anyone who sells, loses money.
Did I sell a single crypto?
Not a single one.
I measure my wealth in BTC, so why would I ever sell it for fiat?
So -- what are the markets doing now?
Right now I think we will see another bit of sideways movement in this area. We could break above and form another sideways channel, but we will be going relatively sideways for days, weeks, or even months.
I think that by end of June we should start to see some movement. Could be earlier, but I dont think it will be much later.
We are still in a bull market, and this capitulation still showing incredibly strength:
1) BTC put in a price floor of $3800 in March 2020. 14 months later in May 2021 BTC put in a price floor of
29K which is 9X permanent value locked in 14 months. Bullish enough?2) You will never be able to buy BTC again below this price. (Is it possible the elites will try another FUD campaign to dump price lower? Yes....is it likely to work? No...)
3) Banks and institutions are continuing to pile in, but are keeping the "news" quiet now so they can accumulate quietly without moving the price up. Most of this trading is also being done OTC so it doesnt directly affect price at all (it has no direct price effect on market order books because its bought directly from miners and suppliers = OTC = over the counter trades)
4) On-chain analysis shows that we are actually seeing new-comers to crypto with bigger than usual wallet sizes, dumping their coins at a loss. Who is buying? Mostly retailers who are not as new to the markets. This is actually an incredibly good sign, because it means individual people are not selling and are actually buying; while newbies are being manipulated by FUD and are losing their money (selling at loss). Remember: institutions and big money are buying OTC so you dont see their buys on the exchanges, and they dont move the price up.
5) There has been a net DECREASE to whale wallet #'s. Which is normal when price dips, but the decrease is bigger than the dip is, which means allot of people that bought recently and cant handle the volatility are FUD-selling at a loss, or just taking profits if they still have a little bit of profit left.
Looking forward, I'm trying to find as much dry-powder as I can to buy more over the next few weeks before we resume bullrun.
We have at minimum til the end of this year for this bullrun to complete; possibly even longer into 2022 Q1 or Q2 - but I am very conservative.
As always I'll be selling 10% of my cryptos between october-january where I feel we are starting to see ATH's again, and as always, i'll never sell the top because thats just impossible to do.
I only sell a maximum of 20% of my cryptos at ATH bullrun cycles and then I just save it in stablecoins until bear market lows.
Meanwhile, stablecoins and cryptos will generate 8% to 50% APY yield, for a year or so until I start buying again...
I might actually be taking a break from crypto markets for a few weeks. Enjoy the summer. Travel a bit now that restrictions are lifting. Put in my buy orders and come back in a month or two.
I really dont want to miss buying opportunity right now, but hopefully my orders will fill even if I'm not watching it daily/weekly.
If I do, see you back in July/August!
My conservative goals this bullrun for BTC is still above 100k. I've moved my sell TPs a bit lower because of this capitulation, but only from 150k to 135k or so.
These are my most conservative numbers, and my higher TP's still go up above 200k for BTC by the end of this bullrun. Those TPs may or may not be reached, but I'd be happy either way and consider this a super successful bullrun.
Timeline estimates are between october to january when we see our final market TOPs.
As stated, our next bear market bottom should still be above 20k level and I am highly optimistic that we will never see BTC below 30k again after this bull run is over.
So - I am buying right now.....I just wish I had more powder to buy with!
הערה
one thing to note: BTC has still not regained the 200D EMA (dark green EMA line)this is typically a big "sell, bear market" signal to traditional traders (who dont understand crypto markets that well).
so, we do still need to get above that EMA, soon.
the funny thing is that almost all other cryptos in the top-50 have already regained the 200D EMA and most of them have even regained the 100D and 50D EMAs.
sooooo.....its strange.....
either way, this means 1 thing for certain: BTC is underpriced right now. buying below 200D EMA is a gift. go get it. im buying more btc than anything else right now because of this indicator alone....(normally i buy about 10:1 ratio of alts:btc in bull markets, but right now im buying about 2:1 alts:btc ratio)
the 35800 zone for BTC is also the fib level, so expect a bounce, even if we do head down to the range low ~33k area.
הערה
see my latest BTC post, we are about to see if we go up or down, in the next 4h candle.we break above and go to 47.5k
or we break below and go to 33k
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