Pumps shut off, sideways setup textbook Wyckoff, dumps commence
מעודכן
Coordinated, perfectly timed whale bids dragged us up the nonstop incline from 7750-9480, not giving bears a chance to breathe or pause at all. But the pumps went quiet after we got near to the major downline overhead, and we didn't *quite* kiss it. No doubt, market inertia (and emboldened bulls) will try to reach for that line a second time - but for right now, we're in the pumpwhales distribution zone.
What should have been powerful rebound and consolidation waves up to 9200 turned out weak and ran out of steam *without even reaching the lowest 0.618 fib* (but forming the UT nicely above the range).
Pumping bids on Bitmex and Binance futures showed up one last time earlier today as we were driven up to 9K on a forced incline --- convincing many bulls that we were back on the road straight to 10K from here.
Instead, we got a high-volume dump at 9K out of seeming nowhere - contrasting all the tepid ranging sideways action so far. And it's only the first, there will be more as we enter the final Wyckoff phase (LPSY).
First we need to fall out of this white parallel channel, then the rising bull floor below makes for a good first target at 8350.
Depending on how much despair (and trapped longs) is unleashed, we could punch through that line, so additional TP2 and TP3 are on the fibs. But the larger bull trend is *still intact* even if this last vertical pump is mostly retraced. only a full breakdown of that lower bull line will result in more dumps. I'm expecting bullish hopes to pull us up from 8350, so taking most of the profit at TP1
What should have been powerful rebound and consolidation waves up to 9200 turned out weak and ran out of steam *without even reaching the lowest 0.618 fib* (but forming the UT nicely above the range).
Pumping bids on Bitmex and Binance futures showed up one last time earlier today as we were driven up to 9K on a forced incline --- convincing many bulls that we were back on the road straight to 10K from here.
Instead, we got a high-volume dump at 9K out of seeming nowhere - contrasting all the tepid ranging sideways action so far. And it's only the first, there will be more as we enter the final Wyckoff phase (LPSY).
First we need to fall out of this white parallel channel, then the rising bull floor below makes for a good first target at 8350.
Depending on how much despair (and trapped longs) is unleashed, we could punch through that line, so additional TP2 and TP3 are on the fibs. But the larger bull trend is *still intact* even if this last vertical pump is mostly retraced. only a full breakdown of that lower bull line will result in more dumps. I'm expecting bullish hopes to pull us up from 8350, so taking most of the profit at TP1
הערה
NOTE -- CME Futures have been closed since $8845 (spot market doesn't like straying far, I've noticed). I would expect the LPSY dumps to complete before futures open in 24 hours, leaving a very, very heavy volume signal for Futures holders to kickoff selling. We'll probably be rebounding up from the white channel bottom at that time, and futures selloff will provide the thrust to break us down to TP1.עסקה פעילה
it begins, just after the 1H, 4H, 12H, daily candles all print green (thanks to whales propping up price right up to the end). This fattens the bids on the orderbooks, lessens slippage. Dumping has begun עסקה פעילה
Welp, called it too soon. that dump was first distribution test, we just launched to make the UTAD (not always present in Wyckoff, but clearly is here). This, folks, is why I don't use high-leverage or max margin. Gotta be able to sit on shorts for a while until price returns without getting anywhere near liquidated. Doesn't feel good to be 35x-100x right now on the wrong sideThis means the bearish Gartley is back in play, and the timeline for Wyckoff just gets pushed out later.
הערה
(max overhead on this channel would be 9230)עסקה פעילה
will be wonderfully ironic if this plays out, and my "textbook" titled Wyckoff actually included the shakeout UTAD after all 😂We've got 19hours to CME futures opening back down at $8840, and this bearish Gartley demands we resolve *down* -- so that looks like a path right back into the range to meet up with futures closing price.
THEN -- we get to have this argument about Moon vs. Distribution all over again 😉
הערה
note above: truth was spoken by the volume. Second big move was in the green, higher than the last. Therefore, still bull.הערה
I just found an old pitchfork I had drawn a day ago hidden on my chart 😂 now that UTAD scenario is strongly confirmed, time to publish Take 2 of this scenario...עסקה פעילה
PROJECTIONS UPDATED ON NEXT CHART:
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