XRPUSD: Flare-Holiday Trade Setup

Buy XRPUSD when price is in green box, sell when price reaches pink box, and set stoploss close to corresponding price of red line.

Max possible loss: 10%
Min possible profit: 43%

Why this setup?

• Price will likely pump between now and 12 Dec because of the Flare network air drop, and we should expect for a massive distribution to ensue.
  
• Price possibly completed a Wave 1 (leading diagonal) and a Wave 2, and, as part of Wave 3, price has begun a lesser degree wave 1 that is similar in structure to the primary Wave 1.
  
• Price broke above a possible triangle and might pullback to confirm.
  

Note:Typically, a Wave 2 will not form as a triangle, and some traders accept this to be a rule. Therefore, I chose not to depict the EW count. However, I have setup the Fibonacci levels based on the corresponding start and end of the suggested leading diagonal Wave 1 and set my sell target to be where I think the suggested lesser degree wave 1 will likely end.

הערה:

Forgot to finish explaining the chart. The first sell target corresponds to Thanksgiving and the possible 43% profit. For those who choose to hold or buy in again, the second target corresponds to the Flare network air drop. After these targets have approached and we see how price actually played out, I might provide an update to indicate a third target that will likely correspond to Christmas/New Years timeframe.

הערה:

If you’re worried that price won’t drop and that you’ve missed your chance to buy in, I suggest you relax.

On lower timeframes the RSI looks bullish, but that is not the case on higher timeframes. Trust the higher timeframes.

Also, I think we are seeing a bull trap play out. Arguably, price looks to have broken above one or two pennants on lower timeframes. But, the volume does not support those breakouts. Again, focus on higher timeframes for this trade. Typically, I use 4hr and higher, but I opted to use 3hr for this one.

1hr timeframe chart showing the possible bull trap I mentioned. I’ll start to consider to buy at a higher price than the buy price area in main chart if price closes above the price I’ve indicated in this 1hr chart.

הערה:

Alright, price now has my attention. Going to keep a closer eye on it over the next 1-3 hour. If necessary, I am going to buy and target the same sell area that is in main chart.

הערה:

Volume will play a big part of what I choose to do.

הערה:

Decent volume on lower TFs that immediately resulted in XRP being back in Overbought area. Want to see higher volume on higher TFs.

הערה:

Edit: Reposting previous update bc image looked skewed to me, possibly bc I’m on mobile.

Depending on how price and Stoch look if and when price reaches previous peak, I might buy in on a pullback. Nice increase in volume on lower TFs, but too overbought and the forming structure currently looks bearish to me.

הערה:

I’m glad that I avoided buying in when it went above .272. I think it will likely drop closer to target buy area.

הערה:

I think this BART could drop as low as .27, possibly even to my original target buy zone. But no guarantee.

הערה:

Sold some. Looks a bit like a wave 5 / lead into distribution structure.

הערה:

Here’s what I mean. Not precise because I threw this together quickly.

הערה:

Target was reached. Sold a bunch but keeping some in.

הערה:

Not too bad!

הערה:

Time to buy!