National Bank on GTA Real Estate Resale Market
The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) data for the resale market in Nov showed the most "favourable to sellers" market on record, notes National Bank's Daren King. Although seasonally adjusted sales fell by 2.5% from October to November after a strong rebound in the last two months, the inventory of properties for sale fell 5.2% compared with the previous month, to its lowest level ever recorded. These market conditions are extreme since the current stock of properties for sale is not sufficient to cover the number of transactions made during the month. And that is despite a 21.1% jump in new listings. The current backdrop will certainly put upward pressure on prices in the next few months. However, with mortgage interest rates on the rise, we would expect demand to cool in 2022.
On a year-over-year basis, sales were up 3.3% compared with Nov 2020 and are at their highest level for this time of year on record. Since the beginning of 2021, sales were up cumulatively 32% versus the same period in 2020 and at the highest for that period of the year on record. With only one month remaining in 2021, this year will have been the most vigorous for the Toronto residential market in history, breaking the record observed in 2016 before the imposition of macro-prudential measures to calm the market, King said.