Michez rule by Pascal Michaillat and Emmanuel Saez

לפני 21 שעותRef: https://pascalmichaillat.org/16/

Economists Pascal Michaillat and Emmanuel Saez have created a two-sided Sahm rule-based indicator[26] (which the Financial Times named the 'Michez rule'[27]), using both the unemployment rate and also the vacancy rate for jobs. The economists noted that their modified indicator functioned for recessions going back to the year 1930,[28] while Sahm's worked only back to the 1950s. Another notable difference: The 'Michez rule' is usually triggered earlier than the Sahm rule as it detects recessions on average 1.4 months after they have started.[29]

לפני 17 שעות

הערות שחרור

Since Pascal Michaillat updated the paper on September 17, 2024, and made slight adjustments to the formulas, a new version has been released to synchronize the values. You can select the paper version under "Official Paper Update Date" on settings.

לפני 3 שעות

הערות שחרור

Correcting data calculation errors for non-"monthly" cycles.