TILT - Timed Index of Liquidity Trends

The Timed Index of Liquidity Trends (TILT) is a tracking tool for high-market cap, high-volatility assets like Bitcoin (BTCUSD), the S&P 500 (SPY), the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Gold. Liquidity drives markets; understanding when liquidity is expanding or contracting can help traders anticipate major market swings with greater confidence.

TILT’s M2 Calculation

TILT is based on a global M2 money supply proxy, which aggregates liquidity conditions from major economies. Since TradingView does not provide direct M2 data for all regions, the indicator uses market-based proxies instead:

🇺🇸 United States – S&P 500 Index (SPX)
🇨🇦 Canada – TSX Composite Index (TSX)
🇪🇺 Eurozone – EUR/USD Exchange Rate (EURUSD)
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – GBP/USD Exchange Rate (GBPUSD)
🇷🇺 Russia – Moscow Exchange Index (MOEX)
🇨🇳 China – China 50 Index (CN50USD)
🇯🇵 Japan – Nikkei 225 Index (JPN225)
🇦🇺 Australia – Gold (XAUUSD) as a liquidity proxy
🇮🇳 India – Nifty 50 Index (NIFTY)
🇰🇷 South Korea – KOSPI Index (KOSPI)
🇧🇷 Brazil – Bovespa Index (IBOV)
🇿🇦 South Africa – USD/ZAR Exchange Rate (USDZAR)

By summing these liquidity proxies, TILT provides a comprehensive view of global M2 conditions, allowing traders to see when money supply is expanding (bullish liquidity conditions) or contracting (bearish liquidity conditions).

How to Use TILT for Trading High-Volatility Assets

TILT is not a traditional price indicator. It is a macro tool designed to show whether liquidity is flowing into or out of the financial system. Assets like Bitcoin, QQQ, and Gold tend to perform well when liquidity is expanding and decline when liquidity is contracting.

₿ Bitcoin (BTCUSD) – The Ultimate Liquidity Sponge

Bitcoin thrives on excess liquidity because it is still a speculative asset with no central authority.

· Liquidity Expanding → BTC tends to rise, as speculative capital flows in.
· Liquidity Contracting → BTC struggles or enters a bear market as leverage dries up.

Example Use Case: If TILT turns green (expanding liquidity) and BTC is near a technical support zone, it may indicate a buying opportunity before the next rally.

📊 S&P 500 (SPY) & Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) – Growth & Risk Appetite

These indices are heavily influenced by liquidity conditions because they represent growth stocks and corporate credit access.

· SPY (🇺🇸) → Moves based on global liquidity, particularly Fed policy & M2 expansion.
· QQQ (🇺🇸) → Even more sensitive than SPY due to high exposure to tech stocks.

Example Use Case: If TILT shows liquidity expansion, QQQ often leads SPY higher, providing early signals for market-wide risk-on behavior.

🥇 Gold – Liquidity & Inflation Hedge

Gold is a monetary asset, meaning it benefits from liquidity expansion and inflation fears.

· Liquidity Expanding → Gold can rally as real yields decline.
· Liquidity Contracting → Gold struggles, especially if real yields rise.

Example Use Case: If TILT turns red (liquidity contracting) and bond yields are rising, gold could enter a bearish phase.

⏱️ Timing Market Swings with the Offset Function

The offset function in TILT allows traders to shift liquidity data forward or backward in time to find the best correlation with price action. However, the offset is not fixed and should be re-evaluated periodically to ensure it remains optimized as a leading indicator. Liquidity cycles and market conditions change over time, meaning an offset that worked well in one period may need adjustment in another.

🤔 Why Use an Offset?

Liquidity moves markets with a lag – The effect of M2 expansion/contraction takes time to show up in risk assets.

Finding the right lag helps confirm liquidity-driven price moves – This is crucial for Bitcoin, QQQ, and Gold, which react differently to liquidity shifts.

Since liquidity conditions evolve, the offset should be adjusted from time to time to maintain predictive accuracy.

👋 How to Fit the Offset Using Vertical Reference Lines

The best way to optimize the offset is by testing historical liquidity cycles and using vertical reference lines (and/or the Date Range tool) to align liquidity trends with major price swings.

Step 1: Plot TILT and the asset you’re analyzing (e.g., BTCUSD) on the same chart.
Step 2: Add vertical lines on significant price reversals (major tops & bottoms).
Step 3: Adjust TILT’s offset forward or backward to see if liquidity trends lead or lag those reversals.
Step 4: Periodically revisit the offset setting to ensure it still aligns well with current market conditions.

Example: If BTC topped 10 bars after TILT turned red, you might set the offset to +10 to better align liquidity changes with price action. If, over time, BTC begins reacting faster or slower to liquidity shifts, the offset should be updated accordingly.

💡 Advanced Tips for TILT Users

· Combine TILT With Sentiment Indicators Like the Fear & Greed Index
· Low Fear & Expanding Liquidity → Strong buy signal for BTC & risk assets
· High Greed & Contracting Liquidity → Caution: Market topping signal
· Use With Volume & On-Chain Metrics for BTC
· Rising TILT + Increasing BTC Volume → Confirms strong accumulation
· TILT Falling + Weak BTC Volume → Potential distribution & market risk
· Watch for Divergences

If BTC makes a new high but TILT is falling, it could indicate a liquidity-driven market top.

If BTC makes a new low but TILT is rising, it could indicate a bottom forming.

Conclusion: TILT = The Macro Liquidity Key for Volatile Assets

TILT is an effective tool for timing market swings in Bitcoin, QQQ, SPY, and Gold, as these assets are highly sensitive to liquidity cycles.

· Tracks global M2 trends using liquidity proxies from major economies
· Helps confirm major tops & bottoms in risk assets
· Offset function allows precise timing of liquidity-driven market moves
· Offset should be reviewed periodically to maintain optimal accuracy
· Pairs well with sentiment tools like the Fear & Greed Index for crypto

By using TILT correctly, traders can anticipate major market turns and position ahead of liquidity-driven moves.