I have 2 scenarios that may play out:
1st scenario (pictured) is that we are currently in a wave 2 correction (in blue w/ question mark), and wave 3 should follow sometime next week, or after earnings, and will bring price action to new high.
2nd scenario is that wave 5 has completed with the last 5 wave count (in pink) and a 4th wave correction in a larger degree will bring price action back down towards 73-75.
I am leaning towards the 1st scenario as price action made a new high after the last 5 wave count, which means this current downward movement cannot be a wave 3 as it would violate wave 1's price action. This makes me believe we are currently seeing an expanded flat as wave b surpassed the previous high and wave c broke out of the short term support.
I will be holding through earnings.
1st scenario (pictured) is that we are currently in a wave 2 correction (in blue w/ question mark), and wave 3 should follow sometime next week, or after earnings, and will bring price action to new high.
2nd scenario is that wave 5 has completed with the last 5 wave count (in pink) and a 4th wave correction in a larger degree will bring price action back down towards 73-75.
I am leaning towards the 1st scenario as price action made a new high after the last 5 wave count, which means this current downward movement cannot be a wave 3 as it would violate wave 1's price action. This makes me believe we are currently seeing an expanded flat as wave b surpassed the previous high and wave c broke out of the short term support.
I will be holding through earnings.
הערה:
If the current structure is an expanded flat, then using fib ratio analysis gives us a target for wave (c) of 85.40.
הערה:
So far so good. Excellent entry at 88-89 on the break of what might have been wave (c). The low at 87.24 could be used as a stop because if this is a new impulse wave to the upside, then corrective waves cannot violate it without canceling the wave count.
הערה:
Here is the alternative wave count. I am uncomfortable with this count because waves (1) and (4), within the circle, are not symmetrical. Rather, the former wave count simply looks better, which makes me believe we saw a corrective expanded flat as a wave ii, instead of a wave (5) and (a). Also, if there is a failure in price action, this latest low would likely not be wave (a), but rather, wave (1) of a new impulse wave to the downside that would end in wave A (green).
הערה:
Ready for earnings