Asian Paints Elliot Wave based Analysis - 1+ YR View

13 ביולי

This script after making a LTH of 3590 in Jan 2022 has been in correction phase in pattern of ABC WAVES (blue color). Currently it is in last phase i.e C which is supposed to be in the form of 12345 pattern (green color). Within this wave C waves 1,2,3 seems to be over and we are in wave 4.
If the stock keep following the Elliott wave theory then
1. As low of wave C which is yet to be formed with wave 5 need to be below 2560 (wave B low).
2. Length of wave 3 has been 752 points so wave 5 can not be greater than 750 in length.
3. If we consider 2550 will be the low of wave C then wave 4 must not go beyond 2550+750=3300.

(on smaller timeframe the stock is making rounding bottom pattern, a daily close above 3340 will activate the target of 3300 so it seems Asian paints most likely should can go up to 3300)

So as long as current wave 4 does not go beyond ~3300 area and comes down one more time to cross below 2560 then Elliott wave theory will be intact.

4. The lowest possible point of wave 5 will depend on actual high of wave 4. Number of points left to touch 3300 must be deducted from 2560 to calculate maximum possible low of wave 5. For example if it reverses from 3250, it means 50 points spared to touch 3300 then wave 5 can go up to 2510 (2560-50).

With above analysis it seems the stock will not break LTH of 3590 until start of 2025. After wave C is finished following all the rules then this stock should start another Elliot wave bull cycle.

Overall bullish till stock reaches in the range of 3250-3300, and from there bearish with target up to 2550. The bearish trade depends on price action around 3300 area.

* It is not a trade advise but technical analysis shared based on my understanding of patterns and personal experiences, please take any trade with applying your analysis and at your own risk.

23 ביולי

הערה

Stock is back into triangle, means no trading zone, holding 2875 on closing basis is important. Overall tone seems to be weak.

26 ביולי

הערה

Still within the triangle but now looking better as it survived the poor results, above trendline it can go up to 3050 and hourly close above 3060 can take it wards 3280-90

31 ביולי

עסקה פעילה

Finally a solid monthly close: with this close the targets are 3120, 3220, 3320, and 3390. To me the stock is overall bearish from Long Term View (as explained at the beginning) so it can turn back sharply from any of these points so trailing stop loss is important.
Also I made mistake in calculating length of wave 3 which is not 750 but 910+ so that means wave 4 can go up to 3400 but must not go beyond wave 2 end point ~3420.
Once wave 4 is formed then we can speculate possible end point for wave 5.

7 באוג׳

הערה

3148 has come since the call given. 3120 is crossed multiple times but could not closed above it on any single day, once it closes above 3120-3150 range then it will shift to next 100 points range. Holding strong during correction i nifty but it might remains sideways for few more days before it shift upwards but holding above 3050 on closing basis is important.
2995 can be the stop loss if it was purchased below 2900, one can book partial profit too at the current levels.

8 באוג׳

הערה

close below 300o can dent the run so 2995 must the the stop loss.

27 באוג׳

הערה

So far all going well as per waves drawn and 3200 has been achieved already, 3320 will be on radar once close above 3220 is made.

4 בספט׳

הערה

Finally closed above 3200 has taken place with high of 3258 so 50 more points to go and then between 3300 and 3400 can be the profit booking area.

10 בספט׳

הערה

Bingo : 3300 also achieved, now the stock is in range where stop loss is important because it is possible that 3400 won't be broken and we can see another final correction in asian paints as explained before it closes above LTH of 3590. So time to be cautious.

But if price moved above 3430 then the theory will get invalidated and we will have to see price action.
Stop loss can be placed below 10Daily EMA.

11 בספט׳

הערה

3380 also reached, tomorrow is important, as long as previous swing high of 3420 is not broken we can see the last leg of downside move else we will have to look for closing above 3600. With that we can target for 5000

14 בספט׳

עסקה סגורה: היעד הושג

The stock has reached the target of ~3400(3392) which was mentioned in July 31 comment with correction in in the analysis. So far 3400 is protected and is important to follow the next prediction on downside.

18 בספט׳

הערה

a low of 3250 made today, almost 150 points correction

25 בספט׳

הערה

Another low of 3207 made today, This confirms the weakness is getting stronger and 3420 is protected. If the stock becomes bearish on daily and weekly then we might see 2560 as predicted....

3 באוק׳

הערה

Another low 3149, so far the prediction is going correct, first 3420 was not broken and now the stock has given almost 250 points correction from the swing high.
Current situation has led to increase the crude oil prices i.e. lower margins for paint making companies like Asian Paints.
Let's see if it goes to 2560 level as predicted :)

14 באוק׳

הערה

BINGO ! 3017 is the new. So far both first the upside move which was predicted to go 3400 (3392 was the swing high - see Jul 31 comment) and now the downside move has given almost 375 points of run for which I gave alerts on Sep 11 when it was at high near 3400.

24 באוק׳

הערה

Bingo : from the high ~3400 fall of 400 points already done, let's see if it moves down another 400 points as per predictions.

5 בנוב׳

הערה

The stock has now come to the level where I initiated buying for wave#4 and now in the form of wave 5 it has come to the level 2886 so far.
320 more points on downside needed to complete the waves..... will it happen? let's keep an eye

12 בנוב׳

הערה

Finally the downside target of 2550 is also met..... Though the stocks has broken 2500 so now it seems doubtful if it can be bought here. It need to form a base....