AUDUSD - 4 Hrs consolidation, Swing buy signal possible soon
Please keep in mind this trade idea is against the major trend, and is really a counter trend long trade.
Therefor use tighter stops!
Daily: Quick and straight bearish move after the horizontal break at 0,9225. The move now seem to be stopped by the key support at 0,8660. Price crossed back above Tenkan Sen, Slow Stoch bullish wave, MACD buy signal. Looks like this cross is ready for a correction and a minimum retest to Kijun Sen. Tgt level is 0,9000, which is the upper key level now. (also Senkou B, the 52 days avg is there).
4 Hrs: Price hanging around the 100 WMA, trades in the Kumo. We also have a medium strong Tenkan/Kijun cross. The Kumo is thin, ADX is low, all Ichimoku lines are flat, so short term this is rather a consolidation, no real trend until it breaks out of the range, at least until Price holds above the 4 Hrs Kijun Sen.
Strategy: either you wait for a close above 0,8810, with DMI-ADX bullish confirmation, or you try to buy here or bit lower, the most important thing is to use tight stops. I prefer to buy 0,5 unit now, and size it up to 2 units when it breaks out and starts trending on the 4 Hrs chart.
However looking at the daily chart if I have to chose, I'd give 60/40 probability for the break on the top side.
Therefor use tighter stops!
Daily: Quick and straight bearish move after the horizontal break at 0,9225. The move now seem to be stopped by the key support at 0,8660. Price crossed back above Tenkan Sen, Slow Stoch bullish wave, MACD buy signal. Looks like this cross is ready for a correction and a minimum retest to Kijun Sen. Tgt level is 0,9000, which is the upper key level now. (also Senkou B, the 52 days avg is there).
4 Hrs: Price hanging around the 100 WMA, trades in the Kumo. We also have a medium strong Tenkan/Kijun cross. The Kumo is thin, ADX is low, all Ichimoku lines are flat, so short term this is rather a consolidation, no real trend until it breaks out of the range, at least until Price holds above the 4 Hrs Kijun Sen.
Strategy: either you wait for a close above 0,8810, with DMI-ADX bullish confirmation, or you try to buy here or bit lower, the most important thing is to use tight stops. I prefer to buy 0,5 unit now, and size it up to 2 units when it breaks out and starts trending on the 4 Hrs chart.
However looking at the daily chart if I have to chose, I'd give 60/40 probability for the break on the top side.
