AUDUSD : further downside is expected
AUD has lost its value against USD along with other major currencies this year.
The downward break out of a long-term trend line is not a good sign for bulls and suggest a potential trend change.
The decline since early this year's high seems like a developing impulsive move with (1)-(2)-1-2-.. sequence.
If the wave label on the chart is correct, the next move will be wave 5 of wave (3).
A couple of target points from Fibonacci relationships:
(1) wave 5 = wave 1: 0.7361
(2) wave (3) = 1.618 x wave (1):0.7307
(3) wave 5 = 0.618 x wave 1 ~ 3: 0.7293
Maybe we are heading to about 0.73 as (2) and (3) are quite close.
If the price will go above wave 1, 0.7672, the current wave count should be changed.
The downward break out of a long-term trend line is not a good sign for bulls and suggest a potential trend change.
The decline since early this year's high seems like a developing impulsive move with (1)-(2)-1-2-.. sequence.
If the wave label on the chart is correct, the next move will be wave 5 of wave (3).
A couple of target points from Fibonacci relationships:
(1) wave 5 = wave 1: 0.7361
(2) wave (3) = 1.618 x wave (1):0.7307
(3) wave 5 = 0.618 x wave 1 ~ 3: 0.7293
Maybe we are heading to about 0.73 as (2) and (3) are quite close.
If the price will go above wave 1, 0.7672, the current wave count should be changed.
Either wave 4 goes as a triangle, or the entire bearish argument should be revised.
Updated chart will be posted once the wave structure gets clearer.