𝐋𝐨𝐧𝐠-𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐦 𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐲𝐬𝐢𝐬 𝐉𝐚𝐧-𝟐𝟕 (Weekly TF)
𝐒𝐜𝐫𝐢𝐩𝐭: Avancoen (𝑨𝑽𝑵)
Considering the price action, and price 40.5 as the bottom of larger wave and start of wave , there are two major scenarios for a 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑔𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑤𝑎𝑣𝑒.
𝐀 - 𝐋𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐝𝐢𝐚𝐠𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐬𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐨 𝟏: (𝐁𝐥𝐚𝐜𝐤 𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬)
1- The wave movement does not seems to be
impulsive, rather more looks like diagonal since
wave 3 in wave (1) of major wave is only 1:1
which is characteristic of non-impulsive wave 3.
2- Secondly the 𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑣𝑒 4 trespassing
61.8% also indicates diagonal characteristic.
3- In a diagonal case the wave 4 can retrace beyond the border of wave 1 top and can extend down to 88% (~47 price).
4- In diagonals 𝑤𝑎𝑣𝑒 5 𝑚𝑎𝑦 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑏𝑒 𝑒𝑥𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑑,
hence the 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑒𝑡𝑠 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑤𝑎𝑣𝑒 5 could be
61.8% or 78.6% i.e. (69.35 𝑜𝑟 75.65, 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑙𝑦).
𝐁- 𝐋𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐝𝐢𝐚𝐠𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐬𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐨 𝟐: (𝐑𝐞𝐝 𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬)
1- Since the length of 𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑟𝑑 𝑖𝑚𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑠𝑒 𝑤𝑎𝑣𝑒 is only 1:1 which is characteristic of 𝑤𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝐶,
therefore the possibility of wave 3 in wave (1) of wave can be ignored.
2- The possibility of wave C formation can also be supported if the current corrective wave can
retrace 𝑏𝑒𝑦𝑜𝑛𝑑 61.8% 𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑠𝑢𝑏𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑦.
3- In this scenario the top of wave C is considered as wave 1 top of wave (1) of wave .
4- the correction will be of wave 2, and 𝑤𝑎𝑣𝑒 2 has the chances 𝑡𝑜 𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑎𝑠 𝑚𝑢𝑐ℎ 𝑎𝑠 88.2%).
5- Thus the downtrend bottom value could be 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑛 41-43.
𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐜𝐥𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬:
The price action suggests that the 𝑑𝑜𝑤𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑑 𝑚𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑖𝑠 𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑜𝑛𝑔𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑔 and the 𝑠𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑜 𝐵 𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑘𝑠 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒, which means that we can see a retracement all the way down to 47-49 𝒊𝒏 𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒘𝒆𝒆𝒌𝒔.
This also suggests that 𝐀𝐕𝐍 may be 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐚 𝐠𝐨𝐨𝐝 𝐜𝐡𝐨𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐮𝐥𝐬𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 but could be a 𝑠𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑛𝑛𝑒𝑙 𝑏𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔.
𝐍𝐨𝐭𝐞: 𝑴𝒐𝒗𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒃𝒆𝒍𝒐𝒘 40.6 𝒊𝒏𝒗𝒂𝒍𝒊𝒅𝒂𝒕𝒆 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒘𝒉𝒐𝒍𝒆 𝒔𝒄𝒆𝒏𝒂𝒓𝒊𝒐 (𝑩𝒐𝒕𝒉 𝑨 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑩).
𝐒𝐜𝐫𝐢𝐩𝐭: Avancoen (𝑨𝑽𝑵)
Considering the price action, and price 40.5 as the bottom of larger wave and start of wave , there are two major scenarios for a 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑔𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑤𝑎𝑣𝑒.
𝐀 - 𝐋𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐝𝐢𝐚𝐠𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐬𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐨 𝟏: (𝐁𝐥𝐚𝐜𝐤 𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬)
1- The wave movement does not seems to be
impulsive, rather more looks like diagonal since
wave 3 in wave (1) of major wave is only 1:1
which is characteristic of non-impulsive wave 3.
2- Secondly the 𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑣𝑒 4 trespassing
61.8% also indicates diagonal characteristic.
3- In a diagonal case the wave 4 can retrace beyond the border of wave 1 top and can extend down to 88% (~47 price).
4- In diagonals 𝑤𝑎𝑣𝑒 5 𝑚𝑎𝑦 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑏𝑒 𝑒𝑥𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑑,
hence the 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑒𝑡𝑠 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑤𝑎𝑣𝑒 5 could be
61.8% or 78.6% i.e. (69.35 𝑜𝑟 75.65, 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑙𝑦).
𝐁- 𝐋𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐝𝐢𝐚𝐠𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐬𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐨 𝟐: (𝐑𝐞𝐝 𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬)
1- Since the length of 𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑟𝑑 𝑖𝑚𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑠𝑒 𝑤𝑎𝑣𝑒 is only 1:1 which is characteristic of 𝑤𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝐶,
therefore the possibility of wave 3 in wave (1) of wave can be ignored.
2- The possibility of wave C formation can also be supported if the current corrective wave can
retrace 𝑏𝑒𝑦𝑜𝑛𝑑 61.8% 𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑠𝑢𝑏𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑦.
3- In this scenario the top of wave C is considered as wave 1 top of wave (1) of wave .
4- the correction will be of wave 2, and 𝑤𝑎𝑣𝑒 2 has the chances 𝑡𝑜 𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑎𝑠 𝑚𝑢𝑐ℎ 𝑎𝑠 88.2%).
5- Thus the downtrend bottom value could be 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑛 41-43.
𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐜𝐥𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬:
The price action suggests that the 𝑑𝑜𝑤𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑑 𝑚𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑖𝑠 𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑜𝑛𝑔𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑔 and the 𝑠𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑜 𝐵 𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑘𝑠 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒, which means that we can see a retracement all the way down to 47-49 𝒊𝒏 𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒘𝒆𝒆𝒌𝒔.
This also suggests that 𝐀𝐕𝐍 may be 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐚 𝐠𝐨𝐨𝐝 𝐜𝐡𝐨𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐮𝐥𝐬𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 but could be a 𝑠𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑛𝑛𝑒𝑙 𝑏𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔.
𝐍𝐨𝐭𝐞: 𝑴𝒐𝒗𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒃𝒆𝒍𝒐𝒘 40.6 𝒊𝒏𝒗𝒂𝒍𝒊𝒅𝒂𝒕𝒆 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒘𝒉𝒐𝒍𝒆 𝒔𝒄𝒆𝒏𝒂𝒓𝒊𝒐 (𝑩𝒐𝒕𝒉 𝑨 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑩).