BCH-Cycle Wave 3-The Great Wave-Part 1 עבור BITFINEX:BCHUSD מאת FibMarketWatch

$BITFINEX:BCHUSDhas completed Cycle Wave 2 and is beginning Cycle Wave 3 now!

Wow, finally the correction is over! I have been tracking the Waves since the all-time high in December 2017. It has been pretty exhausting and was a LONG process. The good news is that we will rally from here till at least July 2019. Thanks for all the questions and for supporting the idea.

Third waves are wonders to behold! Prices will typically take off in a powerful fashion, and the more you delay joining in the direction of the move, the farther it will go away. Stop loss orders will all get executed and push the prices more and more. Even fundamental news will get interpreted to suit the move (i.e. even if the news was bad, the market will somehow interpret it to mean the worst is over!) During an uptrend, any trader who tries to pick a top and sell for a brief correction will soon find himself stopped out.

Now, the important part...we need to profit from the sub-waves while on the way up to the terminal of Cycle Wave 3. So, this idea will track the sub-waves to find profitable trading opportunities.

Analysis Method: Fibonacci + Wave Theory

Cycle Wave 3 Target: $6,743.30+
Fib Ext. 1 & 2 = 1.618
(1yr+)

Primary Wave 3 Target: $708-$1432
Fib Ext. 1 & 2 = 1.618
(30-90 days)

Review:

Last Idea: BCH - Fibonacci/Wave Analysis-Leading Diagonal Apex

Cycle Wave Sequence
-Wave 1: +347.02%
-Wave 3: +899.29%
-Wave 5: +382.22%
- 133 Days

Cycle Correction Sequence
-A Wave: 5 Waves (Pink) (-84.87%)
-B Wave: 3 Waves (+197.89%)
-C Wave: 5 Waves (Orange) (-77.95%)

Cycle Wave Sequence Price Increase: 2,290.84%
- $215.00/$4,104.30
- 133 Days

Cycle Wave 2 Price Decrease= 90.06%
- $4,104.30/$407.90
- 273 Days

Fibonacci Time Extension: Cycle Wave 1

Primary Wave Sequence

Primary Wave
Wave 1 = 10.01%
Wave 2 = -9.00%
Wave 3 = 24.98%
Wave 4 = -16.67%
Wave 5 = 39.27%

Primary Correction Sequence
A = -28.62%
B = +12.87%
C = -14.83%

Primary Wave Fib Time

Primary Wave Fib Extension:

Primary Wave Fib Spirals:

The Failed Wave

I thought that the correction was over and a new wave sequence was forming but instead I miss counted the ABC Correction as a Flat (3-3-5) instead of a ZigZag (5-3-5) Correction. This is why my handle is The HUMBLE Watcher. Yes, I can miss count Waves but generally I'm very close to the exact wave count.

Review:

Cycle Wave 1 & 2

Monthly:

Weekly:

Daily:

Currently, we are finishing a ABC Correction. Waves A and B are complete and Wave C is underway. Wave C needs 5 Sub-Waves to complete.

This idea series is to track the 3rd Cycle Wave and profit from the sub-waves.

Will update.

-AB

הערה

Lower Degree Wave 1 Retrace was approx. 23.6%.

Lower Degree Wave 1 Extended

= Higher Degree Extend

הערה

Added: Fib Time Ext. on Higher and Lower Wave 1

הערה

Massive move incoming...

הערה

Wave C needs 5 Sub-Waves to be complete

הערה

Think I count 5 Sub-Waves...

הערה

Wave C Complete.

הערה

Now we should see a sharp move higher...

הערה

Spirals can be a great timing and target mechanism...

הערה

Above: The Complete ABC correction

הערה

Check the indicators for confirmation...

הערה

FYI: Spirals are distorted since indicators are shown

הערה

Favorite MACD setting: 21, 33, 18

Shows less false signals than 12, 26, 9

הערה

Indicators all look good.

Ultimate Oscillator momentum trending higher

EMA Wave indicating a Positive Convergence

MACD is about to crossover

Elder Force shows a Divergence

הערה

Wave C = Wave 1

הערה

Russian Nesting Doll Effect

If you do not know what Russian Nesting Dolls are please Google "Russian Nesting Dolls".

Otherwise you will have no idea what I am talking about...

הערה

Above: Wave C = Wave 1

הערה

Purple = Wave 1 Sequence
Yellow = Wave C Sequence

הערה

The only Wave Sequence that is allowed to violate Elliot's Wave Rules

הערה

Wave 3 violated Wave 1 Price Area

הערה

Excuse me: Wave 4 violated Wave 1 Price Area

הערה

Better View of Sequence

הערה

Sub Wave Count: ABC Correction

הערה

Sub-Wave Count for Primary Wave

הערה

Added:
Fib Ext. = Wave 1 (0) - Wave 1 (T) - Wave C = Wave 3 Levels
Fib Ext. = Sub-Wave 1 (0) - Sub-Wave 1 (T) - Sub-Wave 2 (T) = Sub-Wave 3 Levels
Fib Ext. = Sub-Wave 1 (0) - Sub-Wave 3 (T) - Sub-Wave 4 (T) = Sub-Wave 5 Levels
Fib Spiral = Wave 1 (1-0) = Target Wave 3
Fib Spiral = Wave 1 (T) - Wave C (T) = Timeline Wave 3 to begin

הערה

Changed Spiral Color
Added Time Range

הערה

(0) = Point Zero or Beginning of Wave/Sub-Wave
(T) = Terminal Wave Point or End of Wave/Sub-Wave
(x) = Sub-Wave (1,2,3,4,5)

הערה

After C Wave Finished the price-action has done a sets of 5-3-5.

Complex Correction.

הערה

We are right at the APEX!

הערה

Broke the Leading Diagonal...

הערה

Once that dam (Leading Diagonal) is broken the price-Action should be racing higher...

הערה

Added Fib Extension: S1 & S2 = S3 Key Levels

הערה

Vindication

הערה

Analysis Proven.

Confirmed Correction is OVER!

הערה

Yup...

Lovin it.

This will take awhile to cool down...

הערה

ZigZag Correction Anticipated

הערה

If Wave A comes down in 5 Sub-Waves

הערה

Wave C could be a good trade...

הערה

Wave C happening now...

Fib Ext. Wave A & Wave B = Wave C Levels

הערה

$507-$520. Possible Trade Level.

הערה

Wave 3 is extending

הערה

Wave 3 significantly passed 1.618 Fibonacci Extension Level from Wave 1 & 2.

הערה

Note: Sub-Wave 3 extended

הערה

ZigZag Correction

הערה

Higher Wave

הערה

Wave Sequence so far...

הערה

Fib Spiral Theory -

Wave 1 Spiral = Wave 3 Terminal = Check

הערה

Finding levels where the 5th Wave/Higher 1st Degree could end.

הערה

$556 looks interesting
$520 looks interesting

הערה

This could be a Wave Sequence.

Wave 1 - 5.85%
Wave 3 -12.40%
Wave 5 - 6.42%

Or

Wave 5 could trend near equality to Wave 3

הערה

I’m more inclinded to Wave 5 extending...

הערה

Current Sub-Wave Count

הערה

Might have a ZigZag Correction here...

הערה

Sold @ 483.03

הערה

STOP Hit 484.99

הערה

If the 5th Wave did not extend...the correction would have been at the $484 level.

Now, $520-$566 are the next levels to watch for...

הערה

Added Fib Spiral: Wave 4

הערה

1.618 Breached

Still extending

הערה

Still going...

הערה

$590 is the next level...

הערה

Fib Ext: 0-3-4 = 5th Key Levels

Passing 1.618

הערה

Lower Extension Trigger Added

הערה

Lower=Blue
Higher=Green

הערה

Correction looks to be inbound...

הערה

Yellow box = Wave Sequence

הערה

Sell: $546.00
Buy: $480.00

Watch for Extensions

הערה

Yellow Box Sequence:

1 - 6.4%
2 - 16.4%
3 - 6.5%

הערה

$590 next stop

הערה

I think we MAY have hit exhaustion with the First Wave Sequence.

הערה

Stopped out again...

Passed Extension line

הערה

Ignore Stop Sell...forgot to remove

הערה

$613-$671 Levels to watch.

הערה

BCH is looking to take off again...

הערה

Fib Spiral Target: $720

הערה

Not going to put on another trade until 100% certain we are at the Terminal 5th/Higher 1st.

I suspect that will be around $720.

הערה

Correction Now:

הערה

Target $508 - $498

הערה

Added:
Fib Spiral : Wave 3 (T) - Wave A (T)
Fib Spiral : Wave 3 (T) - Sub-Wave 3 (T)
Regression Trend: Wave 1 (0) to Wave 3 (T)
Channel Line: Wave 1 (0) to Wave 2 (T)
Wave 1 = 15.72%
Wave 3 = 30.41%

Wave C = -11.44% Estimate

הערה

Watch $530 level...

If $530 Fails...watch $480-$485

הערה

STOP-BUY triggered $547

הערה

4.52% Gain

הערה

STOP-SELL $550

הערה

Still Sold @ $550

Stop-Limit Buy @ $475

הערה

1st Wave Sequence Complete
2nd Wave Correction Now...

הערה

The most common retrace for Wave 2 is Fibonacci Level .618.

הערה

Wave 1 only retraced .382

STOP-BUY triggered $553.

הערה

590 Key Level I have been talking about for awhile...

הערה

STOP-BUY turns into STOP-SELL but a little higher to cover exchange fees...

הערה

Looks like a Wave Sequence to me...

הערה

Good Trade opportunity possible...

הערה

Looking to test $566...

הערה

Always watch for extensions and have a STOP-BUY on ALWAYS! If you are trading the Waves!

הערה

Let's find the 5th Extension levels...

הערה

Above: Key 5th Levels

הערה

Let's see if a Wave will trend near equality...

הערה

Wave 1 & 5 are currently trending toward equality...

הערה

It's either Correction or Snap higher...

הערה

Inclined to correction...

הערה

Added Fib Time Extension to Correction Sub-Wave Sequence
Added Fib Time Extension to Sub-Wave Sequence

הערה

Ignore STOP.
Chart is just price-action update.

הערה

Still extending...

הערה

$720 area still looks to be a Terminal point.

הערה

Correction Now.

Unsure if it is the Higher Degree Correction

הערה

Stop Sell Triggered @ 620

הערה

The way it sold off makes me think it is the higher degree

הערה

Review

הערה

$660 next level...

הערה

STOP SELL triggered @ 628.90

הערה

Having trouble here with the Fibonacci Level .5...
Fib Ext. (0-3-4)

הערה

604 is Sub-Wave 1 Terminal for the 5th Wave Sequence

הערה

If 598 fails look to the lower terminal sub-waves

563 Sub-Wave Terminal

הערה

Sub-Wave Sequence held...

STOP-BUY triggered @ 613

הערה

Watch 624 and 630...

הערה

Wave A complete

הערה

620 is failing...

הערה

Higher Degree Correction?

הערה

The main trade we have been waiting for?

הערה

STOP-LIMIT BUY @ 556

הערה

Excuse above.

הערה

Watch the Blue Levels for the retracement...

הערה

Green Spiral is Wave 2 Retrace Target

הערה

Wave 1 & 5 trended to equality.

הערה

Primary Wave Sequence

הערה

Retrace to $475-$480 likely

הערה

Fib Time Ext. Sub-Wave 1 = Time Frame of Higher Wave

הערה

STOP-LIMIT BUY @ $480

הערה

Buy Zone: $488-$476-$459

הערה

Lowered Buy to @ $465.

This will be a fast move...

הערה

Primary Wave Sequence Hit 1.236 Level of Fib Extension of higher Wave 1 & 2

הערה

Staying course to buy @ $465.

Bottom is probably $455-$465.

הערה

Action update: Stay the course

הערה

Quick Drop Imminent...

הערה

Time Estimate to Begin Primary Wave 3

הערה

Buy still @ $465

הערה

Action update:

הערה

Action update:

הערה

Action update:

הערה

Action update:

Watch $480 level...

Buy still @ 465

הערה

Trade Executed @ 465.00

הערה

Great Trade: Sold @ $617 / Bought @ $465 = +152

הערה

Coinbase's bottom was exactly $465.00

הערה

Correction ending soon...

הערה

Part 1 is coming to an end...

New idea coming shortly...

הערה

Primary Wave 3 inbound with HIGH expectations!

הערה

Above: Action update.

Let's Find Primary Wave 3 Levels...

הערה

Primary Wave 3 Target: $841-$697

הערה

MASSIVE SQUEEZE...

SPIKE!

הערה

Reminder: Wave 1's are usually always sloppy....

Spike Anticipated.

הערה

Added STOP...be careful

הערה

The third wave usually begins by the price racing upwards...

הערה

Wave is holding...

הערה

Primary Wave 2 Retraced 100% of Primary Wave 1 = Normal

הערה

all good so far...

הערה

Back to 520...

Possible trade maybe...

הערה

BCH Fork

google.com/amp/s/bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/when-fork-forks-what-you-need-know-bitcoin-cash-goes-war/amp/

Don’t miss it...

הערה

Ultimate Oscillator showing divergence...good sign.

הערה

Maybe the unanticipated extra drop was due from money flowing out the exchanges into cold wallets for the fork

הערה

Fork is probably impacting the Wave count...

Do not anticipate this price range to last long....

הערה

Think we have a complex correction...

הערה

Possible Double ZigZag

הערה

Need to hold Green Spiral...

Spike up anticipated.

Complex Corrections imply strong moves ahead...

הערה

Above: Possible Trade Opportunity between $775-$693

הערה

Crypto markets about to get crazy...

הערה

Elder Force and MACD

Note the Elder Force divergence.

הערה

Weekly: Ultimate Oscillator and OBV

הערה

Above: Added Fib Time

הערה

Above: BCH ABC & BCH SV / BTC

BCH ABC looks like the Winner.

הערה

ccn.com/bitcoin-cash-abc-futures-cross-300-in-hard-fork-aftermath/

הערה

BCH ABC is just chugging along...building stability

הערה

I suspect that gap that was created because of the fork will be closed when trading opens...

הערה

coingeek.com/bitcoin-bch-hash-war-will-decided-sustained-not-temporary-rented-hash-power/

הערה

Therefore, the BCH hash war will not be decided in 1 or 2 days, but over many days and possibly weeks by on-going miner votes with sustained Proof of Work. Until a dominant chain emerges, cryptocurrency exchanges, wallet and service providers are advised to remain neutral, and to run a Bitcoin SV node to be prepared for the best interests of users.

הערה

Watch the battle play out here: cash.coin.dance/

הערה

BCHSV is trying to breakout

הערה

Update on SV:

הערה

coingeek.com/gear-main-bitcoin-bch-professional-stress-test-bitcoin-sv/

הערה

Update on ABC:

הערה

Almost looks like both are going to survive for now...

I favor SV chart

הערה

ABC is breaking down...

הערה

During this test, SVPool and BMG Group successfully generated five full 32MB blocks—proof “that there are mining systems on the BCH network today that are ready to mine blocks larger than 32MB,” according to the pre-stress test report. SVPool, a personal initiative of Dr. Craig Wright, and nChain’s BMG Group run Bitcoin SV (Satoshi Vision), the full node implementation designed to fulfill the vision set out by Satoshi Nakamoto’s original Bitcoin white paper.

הערה

Meanwhile, mining pools that run Bitcoin ABC achieved much smaller blocks during the pre-test: ViaBTC mined a single 8MB block, while most other blocks mined using Bitcoin ABC were at most 1-2MB during the pre-test.

הערה

screenshots.firefox.com/fheFa3s6ht8RLCo7/cash.coin.dance

הערה

Neck and Neck here...

הערה

ABC stalling?

SV gaining?

הערה

screenshots.firefox.com/kW0kT0WMCcnezHUT/twitter.com

הערה

Watching history here...

Blockchain will disrupt almost every sector...

You are already seeing it impacting the banking sector...

In the future services will be paid for in tokens...

הערה

Stabilizing?

הערה

SV is producing substantially larger blocks.

הערה

SV is producing 32MB

ABC is producing 4MB

הערה

Need to produce large blocks for micropayments

הערה

Very Bullish Formation here for ABC!

הערה

Sub-Wave 1 has completed and Sub-Wave 2 of the Higher Degree 3rd Wave is finishing now...

הערה

Target $292...

הערה

Added SV

הערה

Question is can they both survive or does one have to kill the other?

הערה

Wave 1 - Normal

Wave 3 - Breached 1.681 could extend

הערה

If Wave 1 & 3 are Normal look for the 5th to extend.

הערה

SV & ABC seem to have stabilized for now and have convereged.

הערה

Target of 292 almost hit...

הערה

SV could COULD have a massive move here shortly...

Complex Correction...

הערה

ABC vs. SV update:

הערה

ABC Update:

Wave 3 DID extend...

הערה

1.681 breached of S1 & S2

הערה

BCH = ABC + SV

$440ish...

Getting back to where we were before the fork...

הערה

I can’t tell you which chain will survive...I would need a computer science degree for that but can tell you that this will not be decided in days...

הערה

SV update: Micro-Wave Forming?

הערה

Target $140

הערה

Indicators look good.

הערה

SV is still producing blocks far superior than ABC...

Proof of Work lead by ABC still declining

Block Size:
screenshots.firefox.com/nyiKnuGFlJv5vNvB/cash.coin.dance

POW:
screenshots.firefox.com/nyiKnuGFlJv5vNvB/cash.coin.dance

הערה

Nodes (Log) : screenshots.firefox.com/LjgXg63dlcguKbjA/cash.coin.dance

הערה

Correct Block Size Screenshot: screenshots.firefox.com/jeTUn8evvIDGLgpY/cash.coin.dance

הערה

It's interesting too that SV controlled almost 70% of Hash power pre-split...

Another good question is, is ABC (Group) renting hash power and how long can they rent hash power for days, weeks, months?

הערה

coingeek.com/think-game-played-jimmy-nguyen-tells-truth-bitcoin-bch-hash-war/

הערה

Looks like we have a HASH WAR

הערה

Transactions on ABC: screenshots.firefox.com/sEjFlqrgQb9J0hi3/jochen-hoenicke.de

Transactions on SV: screenshots.firefox.com/ZC0XAf0btXKRm7cN/jochen-hoenicke.de

הערה

HASH: screenshots.firefox.com/7wMFDT2DUvLXfngv/cash.coin.dance

הערה