Hypothesis #1 go Long for short/medium term
I have two major hypothesis:
1. Downtrend commenced in October has already formed all 5 waves of the first big weekly scale wave
2. Only waves 1,2 and 3 have been completed and wave 4 is forming at the moment
This post is all about hypo #1.
1. Waves 1, 3 and 5 are of almost the same length.
2. End of wave 5 landed on a strong upward creeping line multiple times confirmed to become a pivot.
3. Less then 28% retraced - thereby there is a lot of room for upward correction, possibly up to $69 level ($64.6 min)
4. At the moment wave B of a zig-zag is forming a triangle of which sub-wave E is about to be complete
5. Penetration below $59.20 level invalidates hypo #1
6. Penetration above $62 confirms hypo #1
The biggest concerns:
1. Waves 2 and 4 are almost identical in structure and length which is not a norm
2. On completion of wave 5 oil usually reverse wildly, but on the other hand may be it is building up something similar to Jan 2015.
My hypo #2 assumes
1. Completion of wave 4 with the triangle and continuation of the downtrend.
2. Wave D of the triangle is forming at the moment, i.e. small upward move to form wave E ($59.70 - $61.20) is excepted with following slumming down-move
3. Penetration downward $59.20 without completion of wave E of triangle ($61.20) invalidates the assumption on triangle structure of the corrective wave C
4. Penetration above $62 totally invalidates hypo #2
Trading strategy:
1. Both hypo #1 and #2 assume upward move from $59.70 area to $61.20 . So buy at $59.70
2. To be on the safe side take profit at $61.20 and wait for $62 level penetration confirming hypo#1
I have two major hypothesis:
1. Downtrend commenced in October has already formed all 5 waves of the first big weekly scale wave
2. Only waves 1,2 and 3 have been completed and wave 4 is forming at the moment
This post is all about hypo #1.
1. Waves 1, 3 and 5 are of almost the same length.
2. End of wave 5 landed on a strong upward creeping line multiple times confirmed to become a pivot.
3. Less then 28% retraced - thereby there is a lot of room for upward correction, possibly up to $69 level ($64.6 min)
4. At the moment wave B of a zig-zag is forming a triangle of which sub-wave E is about to be complete
5. Penetration below $59.20 level invalidates hypo #1
6. Penetration above $62 confirms hypo #1
The biggest concerns:
1. Waves 2 and 4 are almost identical in structure and length which is not a norm
2. On completion of wave 5 oil usually reverse wildly, but on the other hand may be it is building up something similar to Jan 2015.
My hypo #2 assumes
1. Completion of wave 4 with the triangle and continuation of the downtrend.
2. Wave D of the triangle is forming at the moment, i.e. small upward move to form wave E ($59.70 - $61.20) is excepted with following slumming down-move
3. Penetration downward $59.20 without completion of wave E of triangle ($61.20) invalidates the assumption on triangle structure of the corrective wave C
4. Penetration above $62 totally invalidates hypo #2
Trading strategy:
1. Both hypo #1 and #2 assume upward move from $59.70 area to $61.20 . So buy at $59.70
2. To be on the safe side take profit at $61.20 and wait for $62 level penetration confirming hypo#1
