CYCLE WAVE III ENDS WHERE ? to comply with the rule
מעודכן
CYCLE (light blue) WAVE III ENDS WHERE ? to comply with the rules:
- when Primary (green) wave 5 ends by the end of Intermediate (dark blue) wave 5 by the end of Minor (yellow) wave 5
- It looks like Cycle wave III will be shorter in % then wave I (0,56$ till 8,40$) and below top of I @ 8,40$ THIS IS BREAKING OF ELLIOTT RULE 3.
PRIMARY WAVES in green OF WAVE III:
WAVE 1 from 1,23$ to 2,51$ of 99days and 104% gain
WAVE 2 from 2,51$ to 1,61$ of 77days and -36% correction or Fib retracement between 0,618 & 0,786 of wave 1
WAVE 3 from 1,61$ to 3,48$ of 136days and 113,5% gain or Fib extension of 1,618 of wave 1
WAVE 4 from 3,48$ to low 2,56$ just above top wave 1 (perfect) of 119days and -27% correction or 50% of wave 3
in a wedge triple combo WXYXZ correction
WAVE 5 prediction seem to be messy options:
1st idea)
if Primary wave 5 is equal in magnitude to Primary wave 1 of 104% gain it ends at 5,52$ what has been reached just.
- Problem is that the time is then a lot shorter as only 40 days if counted by end of wave 4
- also problem is that lower degree intermediate waves are much shorter as other intermediate waves of Primary wave 1 and 3, so they look more like a lesser degree Minor wave.
- other problem is that Intermediate wave 4 looks not good.
- that can be solved by Intermediate wave 5 becomes an extended wave as here:
still the low of intermediate wave 4 is way to far of top wave 1.
2nd idea)
- problem is wave 4 overlaps a lot wave 1 what is against the rules
- same time frame is to short
3rd idea)
- due to the short time frame, what we see are lower degree Minor waves and not Intermediate waves.
- Intermediate wave 1 is from 2,71$ to 5,06$ with the minor waves in Yellow as here tradingview.com/x/0YF8IlRa/:
Minor wave 4 low is above top Minor 1= OK
Minor wave 3 is not the biggest but just not smallest, almost the same as Minor 1 (not perfect but within the rules)
-Intermediate wave 2 correction is a triple combo rising wedge Purple WYXXZ and the rest goes like this:
where Intermediate wave 3 should be higher as drawn there due to the % gains versus 1 and 5
Problem here is still the big picture: Cycle wave III should be a lot higher as Cycle wave I top at 8,40$ To give Cycle wave IV a lot of room to correct.
SOLUTION:
The only solution to this is that Intermediate wave 3 blue of Primary wave 5 green in next days to start is larger as Intermediate wave 1 from 2,71$ to 5,06$ of 83,5% gain.
Or the 1,618 Fib of Intermediate wave 1 = 135% gain till around 11$
- The time to complete Primary wave 1 to 3 (311d)= the time to complete the end of Primary wave 3 to end of 5= till 05-march-2018 Intermediate wave 5 188d
- if neither Primary wave 1 or 3 is extended, expect wave 5 to be 1,618x net of wave 1 to 3(of 184,79% gain) or 1,618 x 184,79% = 299% from 2,71$ = 10,81$ (about the same level as previous calculation)
- If this happens, the last of last wave 5 is a mystery and can make a small new high till 13$-16$ after long correction of Intermediate wave 4.
That gives from 13$ to 8,40$ enough room for Cycle wave IV to correct over a long time frame.
I have a problem validating that large increase at the moment with fundamentals at this moment.
This massive increase can only go together with large new contract announcements. Maybe from Protonex USA military or Japan Toyota news.
If CEO times it good, there is an open portal in the next week or 10 days to break many long term trend lines around 6,80$ after the break it is an open sky till high 8,40$ and then target 11$
Yearly zoom-out to see Cycle wave I and II:
All time Zoom-Out to see all Cycles waves:
- when Primary (green) wave 5 ends by the end of Intermediate (dark blue) wave 5 by the end of Minor (yellow) wave 5
- It looks like Cycle wave III will be shorter in % then wave I (0,56$ till 8,40$) and below top of I @ 8,40$ THIS IS BREAKING OF ELLIOTT RULE 3.
PRIMARY WAVES in green OF WAVE III:
WAVE 1 from 1,23$ to 2,51$ of 99days and 104% gain
WAVE 2 from 2,51$ to 1,61$ of 77days and -36% correction or Fib retracement between 0,618 & 0,786 of wave 1
WAVE 3 from 1,61$ to 3,48$ of 136days and 113,5% gain or Fib extension of 1,618 of wave 1
WAVE 4 from 3,48$ to low 2,56$ just above top wave 1 (perfect) of 119days and -27% correction or 50% of wave 3
in a wedge triple combo WXYXZ correction
WAVE 5 prediction seem to be messy options:
1st idea)
if Primary wave 5 is equal in magnitude to Primary wave 1 of 104% gain it ends at 5,52$ what has been reached just.
- Problem is that the time is then a lot shorter as only 40 days if counted by end of wave 4
- also problem is that lower degree intermediate waves are much shorter as other intermediate waves of Primary wave 1 and 3, so they look more like a lesser degree Minor wave.
- other problem is that Intermediate wave 4 looks not good.
- that can be solved by Intermediate wave 5 becomes an extended wave as here:
2nd idea)
- problem is wave 4 overlaps a lot wave 1 what is against the rules
- same time frame is to short
3rd idea)
- due to the short time frame, what we see are lower degree Minor waves and not Intermediate waves.
- Intermediate wave 1 is from 2,71$ to 5,06$ with the minor waves in Yellow as here tradingview.com/x/0YF8IlRa/:
Minor wave 4 low is above top Minor 1= OK
Minor wave 3 is not the biggest but just not smallest, almost the same as Minor 1 (not perfect but within the rules)
-Intermediate wave 2 correction is a triple combo rising wedge Purple WYXXZ and the rest goes like this:
where Intermediate wave 3 should be higher as drawn there due to the % gains versus 1 and 5
Problem here is still the big picture: Cycle wave III should be a lot higher as Cycle wave I top at 8,40$ To give Cycle wave IV a lot of room to correct.
SOLUTION:
The only solution to this is that Intermediate wave 3 blue of Primary wave 5 green in next days to start is larger as Intermediate wave 1 from 2,71$ to 5,06$ of 83,5% gain.
Or the 1,618 Fib of Intermediate wave 1 = 135% gain till around 11$
- The time to complete Primary wave 1 to 3 (311d)= the time to complete the end of Primary wave 3 to end of 5= till 05-march-2018 Intermediate wave 5 188d
- if neither Primary wave 1 or 3 is extended, expect wave 5 to be 1,618x net of wave 1 to 3(of 184,79% gain) or 1,618 x 184,79% = 299% from 2,71$ = 10,81$ (about the same level as previous calculation)
- If this happens, the last of last wave 5 is a mystery and can make a small new high till 13$-16$ after long correction of Intermediate wave 4.
That gives from 13$ to 8,40$ enough room for Cycle wave IV to correct over a long time frame.
I have a problem validating that large increase at the moment with fundamentals at this moment.
This massive increase can only go together with large new contract announcements. Maybe from Protonex USA military or Japan Toyota news.
If CEO times it good, there is an open portal in the next week or 10 days to break many long term trend lines around 6,80$ after the break it is an open sky till high 8,40$ and then target 11$
Yearly zoom-out to see Cycle wave I and II:
All time Zoom-Out to see all Cycles waves:
הערה
Relabelled the Intermediate wave 2 now black colour according to Elliott rules with its Minor waves in blue according to rules.The Minor waves are not wxyxz BUT ABCDE in a ascending triangle or wedge, looks to be very bullish .
הערה
All time chart changed colours according to rules: Cycles in peal blue
Primary in Marron
also the large drop after 2000 is now also charted with Primary waves here:
and here with Intermediate waves to
the first Cycle I wave down after 2000 was challenging to mark
and here the 2nd part:
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