שורט

Repeating Fibonacci Levels Pattern?

מעודכן

Is this repeated Fibonacci levels pattern repeating again? If so, then it seems to agree with my prior idea and portend a move down below 28k by Armstrong’s March 14 ECM turn date, possibly to or below the 24.5k CME gap. Appears that the required move down to the 0.5 level is coming after the second peak, which as I pointed out in the updates of my prior idea (linked below) that mimics the M pattern correction for the DJIA and S&P500 during the subprime crisis from 2006 to 2009. The last leg of the M was a lower low after the second peak before reversing into a massive bullish rocket.

However, this new interpretation also necessarily forces a change in the interpretation of major wave 3 and thus the timing for the major wave 4 correction which should be catastrophic as shown. It appears that Armstrong’s next April 10, 2023 ECM turn date will be the top of major wave 3. Armstrong had noted recently that if March 14, 2022 is the low then April 10, 2023 would be the high — which seems likely given the reaction to the Russian invasion of Europe is likely to escalate and reach a worsening crescendo before the markets have priced it all in. The markets rebounded on Thursday because Biden said he would not sanction oil payments. But oil has spiked over $100 which typically portends a recession. And Westerners are pushing Biden and other NATO nations to be more proactive and for example the U.S. has just announced $350 million in emergency military assistance for Ukraine. And Finland and Sweden are in talks to join NATO, which will royally anger Putin and slap him in the face.

I have added a TOC (table of contents) to my Gist document explaining the posited ANYONECANSPEND legacy Bitcoin restoration “attack”; and I continue to add more information to the document. I highly recommend reading it and checking back for updates to it this week. I will be adding some shocking information over the coming days. My Gist also provides much detail about Martin Armstrong, false-flags, etc..

הערה

Short-term after a possible back test of ~36.9k, I am not ruling out a rally up to a maximum of ~45k by March 10, before the posited final decline. That would form what could either be interpreted to be a massively bullish W pattern projecting up to ~56k or a bearish M pattern projecting down to 25k. Obviously I favor the latter interpretation based on this latest idea.

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I should add that I will employ RSI divergences to guide me as to the correct interpretation as this develops. I could flip flop my interpretation if the market is screaming bullish. Obviously that appears to be a double-bottom and a bullish W pattern forming. But I am wary for the reasons stated. I will continue to update this interpretation after reviewing more information. For example, on my todo list is to watch Game of Trades’ latest video.

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I just read Martin Armstrong’s latest private blog. And week of March 14 would be the reaction high and then week of March 28 would be the Panic Cycle crazy crash. Apparently the war will expand as posited, because Zelensky refuses to evacuate and surrender to appease Putin.

So what I identified in the Bitcoin chart before reading Armstrong’s Socrates A.I. model, has been corroborated by said model. Hmm.

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To help readers, I will repeat from my Bitcoin Elliot Wave Theory idea posted in 2021 and reposted again in my prior idea.

neowave.com/qow/qow-archive-1079.asp

In TRENDING Impulsions (this is where waves-2 and 4 CANNOT share any of the same price territory):

1. If wave-2 is a monowave, it should NOT retrace more than 61.8% of wave-1
2. If wave-2 subdivides into an a-b-c, on rare occasions, wave-a might retrace more than 61.8% of wave-1, but wave-c (of wave-2) must conclude at 61.8% or less of wave-1.

In TERMINAL Impulsions (this is where waves-2 and 4 MUST share some of the same price territory):

1. If wave-2 is a monowave, it CAN retrace more than 61.8% of wave-1
2. If wave-2 subdivides into an a-b-c, BOTH waves-a and c (though not required) can conclude beyond a 61.8% retracement of wave-1.

It is during Terminal patterns that wave-2 is allowed to retrace as much as 99% of wave-1, but never 100% or more.

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Cleaned up this chart.

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Here’s an alternative interpretation which says the bottom is behind us and bullish into summer. This has a proportional timing for the recessionary crash (also the posited ANYONECANSPEND) compared to the 2019 – 20 that was not congruent on my OP variant of this idea, but the price action doesn’t come back down to the bottom of the posited crazy megaphone before rising back to the top of it preceding the posited egregious crash back to the bottom.

However the back test of the Fibonacci golden pocket before catapulting the 2 – 2.272 Fib extension top is missing from this interpretation, so this seems to be incorrect. Also it seems to be incongruent with an expanding war in Ukraine in March. Remember beware the Ides of March.

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Here’s the OP idea refactored with a congruent interpretation of the timing compared to 2019 – 2020. The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement is now exactly corresponding to the yet unfilled 24.5k CME gap.

Even the projection of the posited bullish large scale 2021 – 2022 M pattern, projects exactly to the posited major wave [5] top (which the S&P500 also historically exhibited), with the proportional timing congruent with 2019 – 2020.

You might remember I annotated this S&P500 chart last year.

The S&P500 has breached the top of Game of Trades’ bullish channel (now up testing the top of the channel as overhead resistance) and is threatening to crash ~11 – 24% from top of the channel. You can imagine what a 24% crash in the S&P500 would do to Bitcoin. A crash from 45k to 24.5k would be ~46%.

If the cyan-magenta Elliot Wave seems non-sensical and to understand why I’m unsure where to place cyan-magenta wave [5] top, consider the non-log scaled chart. The ~100k level appears to be the kiss of death for the “official” Power Rangers Bitcorn.

הערה

> “Inverse HS potential forming?”

Yeah maybe. And maybe a drop to 36.5k first for the right shoulder?

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Is this a bullish W pattern reversal projecting to ~56k or a going to become a bearish M pattern projecting down to ~24k? On the 4 hourly we have hidden bearish RSI divergence but with a further move up to 45k this might disappear or become bearish RSI divergence. On the daily there is no RSI divergence yet. Note on the daily there is a small potential M pattern inside the larger year long M pattern. If the larger M pattern is to make a lower-low before rocketing (mimicking the history of the stock markets during subprime crisis) then maybe this inner smaller M pattern will also make a lower-low?

הערה

I’m thinking a breakout to 53k to back test the neckline of the H&S and followed by possibly crashing to 24k? Remember Armstrong has March 14 as a key ECM turning date and March 21 or 28 as a Panic Cycle. Appears we are getting a significant bounce with possibly more crazy downside as this WW3 launch intensifies. Note this is not yet the full WW3, only the early stages. The full WW3 will not come for a couple of years yet.

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I had limit sell orders that triggered at 44k. I’m looking to reload between $42.1 – 42.7k for another leg up to 53k:

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Games of Trades Feb. 24 and Feb. 28 videos are very important. Highly recommended.

We may have bottomed already.

GoT is not ruling out another scare to the downside though.

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Crypto Zombie’s Feb 25 video recommended.

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armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/war/ukraine-reality/

Cyberattacks on banks. Food shortages. Get prepared!

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twitter.com/EtherNasyonaL/status/1496445144383606784

''CRYPTO TOTAL''

The rally that will come in 2022 will make many beautiful faces smile👌💥

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Been so busy I hadn’t looked at the weekly. I didn’t realize the prior week was a red candle. I thought last Sunday closed green. Now we have a horrible looking weekly candle which will probably finish red by Sunday. This is looking grim. I think the scenario is still in play. I may have to sell at a loss now. Sigh. My mistake for being busy on other tasks.

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I can’t discern if this is going down or up.

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A back test? So going higher?

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I think a wick down to $37.5 – 38k, then back up we go.

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I am bullish on Bitcoin. Gold has already broken out. Interest rates are already coming down, so Fed will become less hawkish. Best time to buy is when everyone else is scared:

youtu.be/xom7RWKJU7U

הערה

Monthly could turn green within 3 weeks.

This does not look plausible to get a crash to 28k this month. The markets have already figured out that the Fed can not raise rates like crazy, as interest rates have already started coming down. The economy is slowing and now we have war. The markets may frontrun the Fed this week and turn bullish.

Where would the downside momentum come from? On the monthly Bitcoin has already formed a bottoming base.

The monthly RSI can not go lower. This is the end of the correction:

הערה

The bottom could already be in or it could be between $24 – 30k. On the weekly there is still some downside room on the RSI. The bottom could be this week or next week which is what Martin Armstrong has been suggesting.

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There is still some downside room on the monthly RSI. Note how a spike wick down with a green candle actually moves the RSI up. So we could have wick price low this week or next without breaching the bottom of the declining, narrowing wedge on the RSI:

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This looks like a W pattern to me. Doesn‘t have to come back down to 28k but likely it will.

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That is an M pattern projecting down to 27k. Probably get a bounce here to 40k, then I am out waiting for wick low crash.

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Accumulation/Distribution is starting to turn bullish but looks similar to June 2016 where there was one final capitulation before rocket up.

youtu.be/SjxzUHcSFcU?t=757

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Gaussian band indicator is flashing a repeat of March 2020:

youtu.be/SjxzUHcSFcU?t=965

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Indicator that has never failed says Bitcoin will back test 24k or lower:

youtu.be/SjxzUHcSFcU?t=1261

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VIX chart I annotated in early 2021, predicted the future accurately. Looks like we still have one more spike up. The war is going to have another climax as Putin becomes more vicious in Ukraine.

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Hmm. Same candle.

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Even if I draw the VIX like this still should have upside which should be bearish for stocks and Bitcoin.

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Treasury spreads lead Bitcoin. This is pointing to a crash for Bitcoin?

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Yield curve may have more downside. I bet Bitcoin comes down to fill that 24.5k CME gap.

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As expected NATO is going to escalate to a defacto declaration of war on Russia by helping Poland to send fighter jets into Ukraine to attack that 40km convoy:

youtu.be/5geWA2CxU7o

Now we know the reason Putin put that convoy out there, which you might remember I mentioned in past days. Putin is thus entirely complicit with this with premediated war. He is daring NATO to shoot his convoy so he can escalate to WW3.

Read my Gist!

gist.github.com/shelby3/9613df1445c54f69c4c4f198a7c85cb9

הערה

NATO has not yet entered the war, but they are about to.

youtube.com/watch?v=vD1rz_Nm4ww&lc=UgyVY9aj--fsgJAQvhJ4AaABAg

28:55 Bitcoin will fill that 24.5k CME gap and probably dip to near 20k or perhaps slightly below on a wick. Go look at the 2YR-10YR Treasury spread always leads Bitcoin. It has plummeted thus Bitcoin will follow.

NATO is going to give fighter planes to Ukraine to attack that “stalled” 40km Russian convoy. This will be defacto declaration of war by NATO. WW3 is upon us. Read the Gist linked from my About page for all the details. Expect Russia to bring nuclear holocaust to the doorstep of all NATO countries. Again the details are in my Gist.

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RSI wedges have failed before:

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Is the monthly RSI wedge really bullish?

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Is this scary enough on the RSI?

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Nasdaq attempting to bounce.

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Another potential blackswan incoming for crypto?

armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/cryptocurrency/the-end-of-cryptocurrency-coming/

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This interpretation says one more wick down to this week to 35.5k then up to ~56k on a breakout to the upside.

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Looks like a descending, broadening wedge again with the wick low possibly tomorrow.

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wsj.com/articles/russia-set-to-ban-commodity-exports-following-western-sanctions-11646768260

cnbc.com/2022/03/08/russia-warns-of-300-oil-if-ban-goes-ahead-threatens-to-cut-off-european-gas.html

reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-freezes-assets-32-more-russian-belarusian-officials-oligarchs-2022-03-08/

Clearly they are trying to create another massive recession so the Fed is forced to QE to the moon again.

But the effects of this won’t be felt for a month or two. And the markets have already priced in maximum fear.

I think one more wick low this week with Thursday’s CPI report and possibly Biden executive order against crypto, then up we go until April on a bounce, before the markets collapse after that.

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Looks like Nasdaq will rally back to test the bottom of the rising wedge it fell out of.

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S&P500 is more bearish but should also rally.

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Game of Trades latest.

Here’s what caused me to change my short-term outlook.

2:15 XLK:SPX means tech (i.e. risk on) outperforming S&P500 only when interest rates are declining.

5:04 S&P500 at critical support 100 WMA. If break lower this would be a significant recession which is premature.

6:13 Fund Mgrs heavily positioned in stocks which perform well when interest rates rise.

8:15 Rates headed down but won’t reverse until ~April.

7:14 & 8:02 Should short-term lurch higher for tech & crypto

8:52 after April rates will rise bcz crazy incoming inflation, omicron redux,

11:15 gold may back test.

הערה

So I’m looking for a bull trap bounce to somewhere between ~$56 to 70k. Then an egregious crash to back fill that 24.5k CME gap and probably lower into the low 20000s or even 18k.

I don’t think there’s enough downside moment to crash Bitcoin until we get a bull trap first. We are in maximum fear right now and tech is universally hated. A lot of cash is sitting on the sidelines.

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The posited bull trap bounce may only be to ~$53 – 54k.

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Here is another confirmation from Armstrong’s Socrates service Forecast Array for Bitcoin on his paid blog which you all must be paid members to view. The Directional Change bottom was February, March the pullback, April the high, June the Panic Cycle crash, rising aggressively into August, then a pullback in Sept rising into Oct, then a more severe pullback in Nov rising into Dec and Jan 2023 with the Empirical high on Jan 2023 precisely as in my latest update here.

Note I can not include the chart here, I can only describe it. This is not an advertisement and I am not affiliated with Martin Armstrong.

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Fixed the position of the yellow ‘5’ and the ‘a’, ‘b’, ‘c’ Elliot Wave counts. Also added the second interpretation of the posited H&S pattern which has the next projection down to ~20.9k after this posited up test bull TRAP bounce. I think this is the more likely scenario, not back up to the top of the M pattern.

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I think wick low $36 – 37k this week possibly on Monday with the Fed meeting? Then rockets up.

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Markets are bottoming. Retest of low possible before rockets. Looks BTC has bottomed, c.f. the yield curve vs. BTC chart I had shared previously and view all history back to summer 2018. Note the implication is that BTC will crash after this last very significant bounce into April.

youtu.be/k6X51iyT6mE?t=420

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youtu.be/lU49_sbLgdQ?t=419

Excellent. Validates a bull trap to ~$53 – 56k. Clearly move will be to the upside.

youtube.com/watch?v=lU49_sbLgdQ&lc=UgzkA-o0UDk4oRk5KaB4AaABAg

6:59 superb. Agrees with my Repeating Fractal Pattern analysis as well with a resolution bull trap to ~53k, then a crash to fill the 24.5k CME gap with a wick low to the lower $20,000s range for the final bottom of Elliot Wave 4. Then wave 5 to a new ATH by January 2023. My charts can be found from my About page.

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Btw, the Bitcoin bottom seems to be behind us until $53 – 56k by April 10. After that maybe a crash to below 25k. There could be one final wick to 36k. In any case I have been buying 37.5k, 38.3k and 39.1k.

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As expected Fed meeting result is bullish. Up we go.

youtu.be/f7XRLPgxBLY?t=776

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A close above 38.3k in the next few hours is portending a move to 56k over next 3 weeks.

youtu.be/O9fq9BRfAYc

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I told you 37.5k was the last chance to buy low.

DCA rapidly. The liftoff to 56k is imminent.

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April will be the top of this deadcat rally for BTC with crash to below incoming June. Then by October BTC will start to rally into the Q1 2023 wave 5 top.

Correlate to the U.S. dollar forecast array:

armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/trumps-farewell-now-the-great-reset-the-secret-agenda-divide-conquer/

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Rally into April started last week as I expected. Risk on baby!

nasdaq.com/articles/wall-street-regains-momentum-amid-fed-rate-hike:-5-top-picks

nasdaq.com/articles/5-etfs-up-20-in-sp-500s-best-week-since-november-2020

nasdaq.com/articles/wall-street-had-the-best-week-since-nov-2020:-5-etf-winners

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Finite Maz, {3/22/22 2:04 PM}
FYI, I know you’re sick of hearing about Litecoin from me but the mimblewimble extension block is working on testnet. Antpool is already signaling, I think there’s reasons to be bullish here

twitter.com/CryptoKaleo/status/1506323761649397760

Shelby Moore, {3/22/22 2:06 PM}
{In reply to Finite Maz}
Impressive chart! All the altcoins have 2 – 5 times upside relative to BTC once BTC completes its crash mode perhaps by June. There will probably be an altcoin season Q4 or Q1 2023.

הערה

After potential spike up $44.5 – 45.4k, might pullback to ~42.5k, before breaking up out of positing ascending triangle subsequently heading up to the posited $53 – 56k bull trap, before the posited potential crash into June:

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twitter.com/AurelienOhayon/status/1505568057414070278

“#Altcoin ON FIRE. 🔥🔥🔥 PERFECT Falling wedge BREAKOUT. I've never seen such a perfect falling wedge. Classic and pure. 💎”

Disagree! This is a bull trap. The Bitcoin Dominance is about to have a massive breakout. We have a bull trap to ~$53 – 56k, then a crash to below the CME gap 24.5k. Altcoins will be crushed. I expect altcoins to retest the top of that declining wedge as support (click the Twitter link for the chart).

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Took massive profits as I was heavily leveraged long since 37.5k. Waiting for a possible pullback to ~45k before reloading long to $53 – 56k. Note the bearish RSI divergence on the 4 hourly not seen on lower and higher timeframes, meaning this is very bullish but later today probably a pullback first.

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Here’s the pattern I’m positing for BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance) mimicking 2017. So after this bull trap, I’m expecting a crash into June to complete Bitcoin’s wave 4 retracement, then a rally into later 2022 for new ATH wave 5, with the altcoins rally significantly into Q1 2023. A double-bottom on BTC.D in Q1 2023 will provide for massive Bitcoin Dominance rise for what could form into a massive W pattern projecting to 100% dominance and would be the end of the altcoins? Will that be that the maligned, posited ANYONECANSPEND attack? Or would it form into a bearish M pattern after rallying back up to 72% after the posited Q1 2023 start of the cryptowinter?

Another possibility is this is a reversal pattern inside of an M pattern yet to form. In this case BTC here may be the impostor BTC that dies in the posited attack, which might occur in the next cryptowinter perhaps in 2023 or 2024?

הערה

S&P500 poised to make a new ATH but that doesn’t mean BTC will, because note S&P500 achieved 17% of its ATH between the May and Dec 2021, but BTC only 0.04%. Bitcoin was losing relative momentum, yet when BTC falls behind it eventually explodes back into the lead. And if the ATH will be April, then a third to a fourth of the prior said ATH. So BTC may underwhelm and this could be a bear trap.

Ditto Nasdaq:

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An alternative interpretation is only a double-top incoming for stock markets before June crash.

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Declining volume on S&P500 indicates there will be retests on this bottoming process before the significant new ATHs.

youtu.be/1PjjlqKK79M?t=403

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Slowing economy opens the door for Fed to back off rate hikes later this year. Would could provide the rally. What may cause a May/June pullback could be an expected escalation of the war in Europe.

youtu.be/1PjjlqKK79M?t=251

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Definitely heading to a new ATH for stocks and eventually BTC. Question is whether we only have volatility on the way up and bottom behind us, other whether BTC will make a lower low in June. I can not say for sure, but I am long to at least $53 – 56k, then I will reevaluate.

Note a recession is approaching probably in 2023 and after stock market tops, gold is going to go on a massive relative appreciation (~500%) compared to stocks until at least 2025 or 2027, perhaps longer. Watch the entire linked video:

youtu.be/L04xxaWnqno

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Must watch ~10 mins of this video can be viewed on double-speed. I am adding back my leveraged long positions on this back fill of the 45.5k CME gap. Expecting 56k incoming and possibly as this video points out we could have a massive rally for the rest of 2022! Still might get some sort of retest of 40k in May/June though.

youtu.be/o8NLiyGf8p4

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Fed to prematurely stop tightening because of inverted yield curve to send risk on markets back up to ATHs?

youtube.com/watch?v=R0CH-9lyr_I&t=358s

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Preparing for a breakout to above 51k. But after that be mindful of a possible pullback to the brownish-yellow line ~40k before rocketing to new ATHs. Again the reason is the Fed is going to shock everyone and will be forced to reduce their hawkishness due to the negative interest rate curve and uber high oil prices signaling a recession coming. May have mixed signals though into the May meeting and rate hike which would provide for said pullback.

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Another massively bullish interpretation of the Bitcoin chart.

youtu.be/5Ay_sko_dAE?t=836

mobile.twitter.com/nihkalowz/status/1511266802361200641

That seems to indicated that might get a ~20% pullback slingshot stomp backtest after hitting $51 – 58k before catapulting higher later in 2022.

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youtu.be/uW8JfndDWuc?t=574

The linked model argues that (legacy) Bitcoin can’t go any lower and could be as high as 370k by July 2024.

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GoT massively bullish on Bitcoin:

youtube.com/watch?v=_bZ4Mp17pN8

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Inverse, bullish H&S forming on the Nasdaq with a gap that needs to be filled to the upside. Might have a bit more downside.

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Bullish RSI divergence on the 4 hour Bitcoin chart precisely at my predicted, targeted price level.

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GoT points out that the S&P500 may have some more downside until the Fed makes it clear they will not be able to do 8 interest rate hikes this year. He points out that leading indicators are pointing to a top in the cycle of raising interest rates and a top in the rate of price inflation are imminent probably in May. Which shocked me because I was thinking supply chains would be severely disrupted by the Russian sanctions causing worsening price inflation. But the economy overall is slowing and from my own research housing starts are (i.e. incoming housing supply will be) 600,000 in the U.S. with higher interest rates dampening demand. Also maybe oil has peaked for this year with perhaps a (at least temporary) negotiated truce in Ukraine forthcoming? Originally I was thinking this next week would be peak ~$53+K for Bitcoin but apparently this will be the pullback low and then heading higher into May or June?

youtu.be/PceNdkajIEU

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Nasdaq could have another 2 – 3% downside but on the hourly it has a bullish RSI divergence so may get a bounce to fill that gap before forming the bottom of the right shoulder of the posited, projected inverse H&S (a bullish pattern).

That would project another ~$1500 – 2500 lower for the final Bitcoin bottom albeit maybe with a bounce first given the 4 hour bullish RSI divergence:

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Thus I am expecting a bounce this week, then a decline next weekend and/or the subsequent week back through the apex on my BTC chart to that strong support 40k. With that pullback completed look for a massive rally in May or June after the Fed has to backtrack on its hawkishness. Thus I am no longer expecting lower-lows for BTC before it forms a new ATH. Instead we are looking at a recession and cryptowinter perhaps in 2023 per GoT’s thesis.

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Strongest support is ~40.6k.

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Non-log and log-scaled monthly. Looking very bullish. Maybe a wick down this weekend or next week.

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Weekly RSI had already turned bullish, now backtesting. So monthly should start to curl up perhaps May/Jun. Unless it’s a repeat of the December 2018 final capitulation. I think current juncture correlates more to June 2020. There’s a potential wick down to 35k looming.

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Based on the posited, bullish inverted H&S pattern for the Nasdaq and Bitcoin relatively double percentage moves, if the bottom was not already hit then it will be ~$37 – 38.4k.

If the posited, bullish pattern fails, then all bets are off, but I highly doubt that bearish scenario.

Might be time to start cherry picking altcoins.

DOGEBTC looks to have the most upside leverage ~4×, ADABTC ~3×, DOTBTC ~2.5×, ETHBTC ~2×.

הערה

I think the Nasdaq may upfill that lower gap today before possibly heading back down into Friday with Bitcoin possibly making a final bottom this weekend or next week. I don’t expect markets to fully reverse bullish until the Fed indicates they need to backtrack on hawkishness because of the worsening economy despite high price inflation.

Thus Bitcoin may have another leg up to bring that 4 hourly RSI above the level from first week of April into an even more bearish divergence than it already is.

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youtu.be/T7j69etrItA?t=697

GoT is essentially arguing that the 2018 final capitulation is already behind us and heading up soon to new ATH before the cryptowinter (and stock market crash) that is a year or two from now.

The bounce in 2019 (new ATH for stocks and for BTC) was the Fed pumping massively into the Repo Crisis after tightening. Now the Fed is attempting to tighten but the yield curve has already gone negative suggesting Fed needs to backtrack again. GoT had suggested price inflation would peak soon (how much worse can the Ukraine war and China ‘zero COVID’ price spike get and oil producers should be ramping up production).

I can’t entirely rule out a lower low capitulation though, but GoT’s logic is solid.

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I replied:

> “If you were awake in 2020-2021, then you’d see that we actually already had the “blow-off top.” The level of speculation was greater than in the 2000 tech bubble. Anyone could have and should have gotten rich buying anything from meme stocks to crypto, to QQQ to crude oil. Expecting a blow off top from here, with the fiscal and monetary stimulus is gone, with the worst inflation since the 70s, with the Fed tightening, with the the yield curve…”

Yet most of the money is already on the sidelines in risk-off by now. And it’s a lot of money that won’t go poof it’s gone until the debt engine is allowed to severely collapse. BlackRock controls the Fed and is invested in the stock market. The correction already happened. The next market crash may correspond to the outbreak of world war.

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That looks like a bearish H&S targeting 37.4k.

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Very similar pattern to the prior wicks down to the cyan colored support trendline. This should be the final wick down and resume the bull market to a new ATH. Looks like a giant flag pattern (c.f. upper purple trend line) yet the flag is too large relative to the decline leading into it, to be a bearish continuation pattern.

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marketwatch.com/story/feds-waller-says-inflation-may-have-peaked-in-march-11649881908

marketwatch.com/story/putins-price-hike-bad-news-for-commuters-and-summer-road-trippers-gas-prices-just-soared-at-a-rate-not-seen-since-1981-11649773987

(New inflation numbers come as President Biden says will allow high-ethanol blend gas for sale in summer)

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youtu.be/k-Cbj-HhgFw

Everything stated in that video entirely agrees with GoT’s thesis and GoT had also explained that Fed would need to become more dovish by summer, except GoT doesn’t expect the further lower-low market correction. GoT had shown in a recent video that inflation had likely peaked from a historical chart timing perspective, and because for example the economy is slowing and alternative producers of oil will ramp up production. Also Biden released oil from the strategic reserve and allowed increased ethanol blends (which will help drive up food price inflation though)— which may bring U.S. prices more in line with those Mexico as Mexico doesn’t allow ethanol blends.

Yet according to GoT’s analysis the market correction appears to be over and market has already priced in all the doom and gloom. However I did note that GoT was ignoring the daily RSI on the S&P500 which still seems to be quite elevated. GoT cited the interest rates which are now at the overhead resistance, and the sentiment indicator which is at an egregious extreme. The problem I have with your posited Elliot Wave on the Russell 2000 would have the S&P500 coming back down to below 3600 which doesn’t seem likely. Also your EW is wrong because wave 1 must be lower than the prior top. Normally the correction after wave 5 only comes back to between wave 3 and 4, not down to top of wave 1. I think you need to zoom out, and we are still in wave 4 right now as I have shown on my Bitcoin and Nasdaq EW charts. You can find an alternative A-B-C on your chart which indicates bottom already occurred. However, on my SPX and Nasdaq charts I have 4000 and 12300–12500 as next strong support with the Nasdaq having similar structure as Russell 2000. Thus I do think it is possible GoT is a bit premature and we may have a slightly lower low incoming. A further 4.5–6% correction on Nasdaq (from prior low) would be 9–12% for Bitcoin thus ~$29 – 30k which would concur with Cryptozombies’ M pattern thesis.

P.S. the cited video paints quite the rollercoaster ahead with oil to drop to $50 this summer then rising to $200 into 2023–24 (precisely what is need to trigger or will be scapegoated with international war) and he expects interest rates to move very high (which GoT also noted as a possibility with a breakout of a long-term overhead resistance possible after the pullback which will provide the posited rally from summer into 2023) causing a 50 – 80% market correction and a global real estate market correction into 2024 – 26. So the time to buy real estate is not quite yet (although further price inflation will occur interim).

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My strong supports for stock markets. Short-term bounce likely incoming first.

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Bitcoin with EW also labeled.

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So based on relative gain expected for Nasdag times two, that will be a ~3 – 4 times gain for BTC off the bottom, so based on the BTC charts for each of the following then ETH 6 – 8 times gain ($30–40k), LRC 7–10 times gain ($25–28), ADA 9–12 times gain ($27–36), DOGE 12–16 times gain ($9–12).

הערה

According to EW rules for terminal impulse wave condition (wave 2 retraced more than 61.8% of wave 1), the following is more sensible.

הערה

youtu.be/wiYLc2R7LqY?t=641

Dollar index indicating another thrust down for risk assets. Possible move down to 24 – 25k due to monthly RSI cross.

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This Feb 26 prediction appears to be coming to fruition. Should see another thrust down to $24 – 29k before the bull market resumes. Then rally to 120k by 2023, potentially followed by the ANYONECANSPEND attack.

הערה

GoT may be wrong here? JNK/TLT is breaking out and we can see that at least w.r.t. BTC that the move up (especially in JNK) from April 2013 led the delayed second peak rally for BTC. Also BTC and JNK seem more correlated to the TLT declining after a peak forcing the Fed to ease monetary policy. In any case, JNK/TLT appears to be on a breakout of wedge not at overhead support as claimed by GoT. So looks like a massive rally in risk-on assets again which JNK/TLT has been sniffing in advance? JNK and BTC have been held down by the hawkish monetary policy (and this fear may not have peaked just yet), but JNK is declining less than TLT and TLT declining is a leading indicator for BTC to rally more. Note though that in 2017 BTC rallied while TLT rallied more than JNK, so JNK/TLT could even decline and that wouldn’t prevent a BTC rally.

youtu.be/T7j69etrItA?t=680

הערה

Although 10Y is highly overbought and probably due for a reversal, it doesn’t mean the correction has completed as seen from the history.

youtu.be/f6uJSvuxlzs?t=177

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The Fed simply can’t follow through with their very aggressive tightening without crashing the global economy. Besides the global economy is now collapsing regardless of what the Fed does because of the premeditated COVID, war and concomitant supply chain disruption, so Fed’s interest rates really won’t do much to abate price inflation other than to lower demand by creating a recession (which will not stop food price inflation because people need to eat regardless).

So the Fed is going to have no choice but to accept high price inflation and become less hawkish than the market fear is pricing in with this correction.

The issue for us is not whether there will be rally from summer into 2023 which seem certain, but what will be the bottom of this correction?

Best indications are that the correction has not yet reached the bottom. But the correction will not be as severe as in 2020 which is what the majority of the market seems to be fearing.

I think you all know we are headed into a maelstrom with perhaps an abatement of price inflation briefly this summer as for example Hungary is fighting the EU’s plan to embargo Russia’s oil. And other oil producers increasing production as well as consumers driving less. But even Armstrong as a $230 oil price projection for 2023. The price inflation and food shortages are going to go insane later this year and heading into 2023. Then by 2024 the mother of all economic collapses— the Greater Depression.

הערה

Might get a bounce here, but the daily is looking not good. 30k looks to be an eventuality. Possibly only ~35k.

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Are we forming a very strange bearish H&S pattern?

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Or maybe like this?

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Bearish.

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What is this a bird flapping its wings?

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That is a H&S pattern:

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Normally this is bearish but with Bitcoin we can not be 100% sure.

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Nearly a bottom. Also see GoT’s April 25 and 28 videos.

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youtu.be/7KiSkmEwpvk

GoT’s follow-up on April 28 is probably correct that will likely get one more significant rally over the next yearish or so, before the plunge into WW3 horror.

Note my interpretation of the VIX which I have had for several months now, is much better than GoT’s. I emailed this chart to him just now. VIX can spike to 36 then fall to 17 later this year into 2023.

הערה

elliottwave-forecast.com/elliott-wave-theory/

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle

According to the Elliot Wave rules the A-B-C correction can be 5-3-5 OR 3-3-5. Wave C can be 0.618 – 1.23 of wave A. There is a bullish RSI divergence forming on the 4 and 2 hourly. So the end of corrective minor wave 3 is imminent. We’re due for a bounce to minor wave 4 before final wave C capitulation.

The Fed meeting on May 3–4 will raise rates. Remember on the prior Fed meeting when the Fed raised, the markets immediately rallied. I think there is too much extreme bearishness already priced in as GoT pointed out in his April 25 video.

הערה

And here’s the news for a potential bounce.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-29/powell-seen-slowing-rate-hikes-after-may-and-june-front-loading

הערה

MAJOR DISCOVERY. Note BTC chart bottomed in Dec 2018 whereas Russel 2000 (all stock markets) bottomed in March 2020. Thus BTC is still in major (red) wave 3!! This requires that minor (purple) wave 5 is forthcoming. This dictates that the BTC correction has been a Running Flat (Expanded Flat would require price to crash below 20k).

Thus per Running Flat metrics, BTC has already bottomed! Can’t go lower than 33k as it bottomed exactly at 100% of AB! Notice BTC has been making higher lowers, while stock markets making lower lows.

elliottwave-forecast.com/elliott-wave-theory/

הערה

This is too bullish. Bitcoin may come back down to 37.2k one last time, but I think highly unlikely to dip to 35.5k. I would be looking to buy this week on any dip and hodl.

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youtu.be/fBxIaAmW2Ug

Important. Really looks like we should be buying today. Maybe one last wick down today?

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Possible break out!

הערה

Today is final capitulation. I am buying aggressively:

finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-may-5-2022-221907800.html

But importantly, during his press conference Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested the central bank was not currently discussing plans to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in the near-term. Stocks had risen immediately following those remarks, with many investors breathing a sigh of relief that the Fed was unlikely to raise interest rates even more aggressively in the coming months.

הערה

Clearing out the leveraged longs before the renewed bull market ensues. Markets priced in a 75 rate hike in June. But it is not forthcoming.

economist.com/leaders/the-federal-reserve-is-causing-pain-in-financial-markets/21809132

As investors suffer, monetary policymakers may be tempted to change course. If they stopped raising rates and let inflation run hot, bondholders would lose money but more inflation-proof assets, such as stocks and houses, would benefit. The dollar would fall, helping the many countries which denominate some of their exports or debts in dollars.

הערה

cnbc.com/2022/05/05/investing-club-were-not-panicking-cramer-sees-inflation-peaking-looks-for-stock-buys.html

Bond investors are likely selling their holdings, Cramer suggested, because they believe Powell was wrong to say the Fed is “not actively considering” a 75 basis point hike while the economy faces its hottest bout of inflation since the early 1980s. The bond market moves are, in turn, triggering stock sales by algorithmic traders, Cramer said.

{…}

However, Cramer said he takes a different view and that’s why he’s remaining constructive during the carnage. “We see too many instances where inflation is receding,” Cramer said, pointing to the pullback in copper and aluminum prices as two examples.

Energy prices are likely to remain elevated due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, Cramer acknowledged. On the other hand, Cramer said rising mortgage rates should cool the housing market, and he added there’s signs used car demand is waning, too. “The inputs for inflation are coming down,” he said.

הערה

We are in the final bottoming realization process of the markets. Maybe a wick down to 34.1k at most.

finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-may-6-2022-221420553.html

הערה

Armstrong is writing in his private blog that the DJIA may crash and continue declining into 2023. He is writing utter nonsense. The DJIA approaching strong support and inflation is peaking because high interest rates will start to choke off housing prices and are causing vehicle prices to decline. The market has priced in 75 basis point Fed hikes from June forwards but the Fed is clearly not going to raise more than 50 basis in June and going forward. These markets will rally into 2023 before the crash that precipitates the wider war starting in 2024:

הערה

We either have the bottom here or one final move down to 32.6k to complete that H&S I had noted week before last.

הערה

One of the lowest Fear & Greed indices ever printed 11!

alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

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Bullish RSI divergence on the 1, 2 and 4 hourly. Daily needs the price to decline below 33k slightly to form bullish RSI divergence.

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Who ever buys this massive capitulation is going to be smiling in a couple of months.

(earlier)

הערה

Follow-up on the DJIA chart:

הערה

archive.ph/https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-markets-dow-update-05-09-2022-11652073278

> “U.S. government bonds sold off again, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note to 3.179% on Monday from 3.124% on Friday. That put it on course to settle at a fresh multiyear high. The 10-year yield had risen 1.6 percentage points since the end of 2021 through Friday, leading some investors to reassess the valuations of technology and growth stocks. 𝘽𝙤𝙣𝙙 𝙮𝙞𝙚𝙡𝙙𝙨 𝙧𝙞𝙨𝙚 𝙬𝙝𝙚𝙣 𝙥𝙧𝙞𝙘𝙚𝙨 𝙛𝙖𝙡𝙡.”

So investors are selling at least long maturity bonds. Yet the 10Y/2Y yield curve has also been rising since April. Meaning bond investors do not expect a market collapse because in a market collapse everyone stampedes into short-term Treasuries.

Apparently they are buying commodities to hedge against inflation. But inflation is peaking right about now. So they will stampede back into risk-on stocks next.

Be ahead of the herd. Buy risk-on now on this capitulation.

הערה

ft.com/content/12103d3e-c13c-4a70-96e8-441d47f5ce76
(Investors are too bearish about the US stock market)

Much inflation FUD today:

finance.yahoo.com/news/boes-saunders-says-hes-worried-132457124.html

finance.yahoo.com/news/mexico-inflation-21-high-central-132603360.html

But reality is inflation is peaking near-term…

finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-bostic-says-maybe-two-124735014.html

finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-price-index-disney-earnings-what-to-know-in-markets-this-week-230354650.html

> “The Bureau of Labor Statistics' April Consumer Price Index (CPI), due out Wednesday, will be one of the most closely watched economic reports this week. The headline index is expected to decelerate on both a month-over-month and year-over-year basis, offering a tentative sign that the rate of price increases may have peaked in March.”

הערה

For Bitcoin currently 31.6k there is still bullish RSI divergence on 1 hourly and lower time frames. The 2 and 4 hourly lost their bullish RSI divergence. The daily has a bullish RSI divergence even if the price drops to 30k, which is looking plausible.

הערה

Everyone has moved over to one side of the Titanic. Now wait for them to come rushing back to the other side, as they realize that the economy will improve at least until the 2022 mid-term elections. Inflation will peak because interest rates are elevated. But the U.S. economy can handle 3% interest rates for a couple of quarters. Everyone is flush with savings. And as inflation peaks, that investment will be swing back into risk-on investments. After Q4 or Q1 2023, we could be looking a massive global market crash and economic Armageddon heading into 2024+ which will precipitate world war and political crises in many nations.

ft.com/content/7d87d045-60a9-46ec-af0d-10740f253fe0
(Is the Big Tech crash already over?)

> “Tech stocks may be in a bear market, but don’t worry, a dotcom crash in the making this ain’t. So says Jim Paulsen, chief strategist at The Leuthold Group, who makes a persuasive case for calm in his latest note.”
>
> “Paulsen kicks things off by noting that while prices for tech businesses are close to where they were back in 2000, earnings today are far more robust.”

הערה

Still a bullish RSI divergence on the daily. Are we going for the M pattern extension to between $25.7 to 29.2k?

Hidden bullish RSI divergence on the weekly as long as the price stays above 29.2k.

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@MunjevitiJuric wins the prize for predicting the 30k bottom some weeks ago. Well done. I was wrong and you were correct. I got too bullish on that bull trap right before the final capitulation.

I should focus on programming, not trading. 😉

הערה

Maybe. Could have bottomed or one more wick down after a deadcat bounce. Note there is a CME gap for Bitcoin at 35k. Maybe a bounce up to 35k first?

Note the liquidation (via loaning it out) of Luna’s $1.5 billion BTC to backstop their UST stable coin is an example deleveraging in action. I wonder if more deleveraging to come?

I read that Microstrategy’s BTC will be margin called if price drops to 21k. Probably that is for next year though with the ANYONECANSPEND attack?

The Wednesday CPI report in the U.S. could be a catalyst.

This doesn’t look good. Nasdaq is bouncing but the risk-on ratio is appears to retesting the former resistance as support?

הערה

Nasdaq is backfilling a gap. Not sure if this is headed lower or will bounce off the gap backfill. VIX is also giving mixed signals whether it wants to go higher. I am leaning towards the bottom may not be in yet.

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For the Nasdaq I see bullish RSI divergence (hidden on the monthly) from the monthly all the way down to the hourly time frames. I think a rally is incoming?

For Bitcoin, I see bullish RSI divergence (hidden on monthly and weekly) from the monthly down to the daily only.

If Bitcoin declines below , then all the bullish divergences are lost and it would be free fall to $21 – 25k. Thus I am thinking this is not likely.

Looks like a W bottoming pattern may be forming on the Nasdaq with another retest of 12,150 possible, before a rally to 12,900.

הערה

There’s that wick down we needed. And that provides a bullish RSI divergence now on the 4, 2 and 1 hourly again. Did not violate the daily, weekly and monthly bullish RSI divergence. The CPI came is about as expected with one reading slightly worse and another slightly better than expected. I am not sure if this is the bottom but we should get a bounce here to 35k. If it was not the bottom then $21 – 25k.

הערה

Bearish RSI divergences on the monthly, weekly and daily for both the dollar and the 10 Year Treasury. Looks like this crash has exhausted its momentum.

shelby3

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