Bitcoin at it's weakest, has that appearance at least
מעודכן
So here we are, still in side this big bear flag which almost guarantees we will see another big drop towards some the targets i have been calling for a while now, those 6K and 4K levels. Thing is, i was calling for these levels when we were still in the 9K and 10K levels and i felt quite comfortable with that because most people were still looking up and were still hoping for higher prices. TV does not represent the whole crypto market of course, maybe it's 1% maybe it's 20% i don't know. But we can assume that it does represent at least some of the average thought. Most people here, analysts and followers have become bears. Thing is markets usually don't move into the direction that everybody expects, that's my main reason why i don't think we will see those low prices this week.
It's something what i have been seeing the last month, when price was above the 9K most were bullish and when price got below 8K most became bears again. And they kept on changing each time we crossed these levels. It's has always been like that, the higher prices go the more bullish the bulls get. And of course the lower prices go the more bearish bears get.
2 days ago i thought (half way of the pattern) we were making a wedge which would predict a small relief rally towards 7300/7500 but within an hour or 2 after i posted it price already got to high to still make it a wedge. Now we are making a big bear flag again, which is really starting to weaken now, because the highs keep getting lower which let you see a descending triangle (just like the one we saw 4 days ago). Even if this pattern is just it, normally it would be to soon to break the low already and i would expect a small rise towards 6900/7000 before dropping again. Not necessary of course, but it's what usually happens. These consolidation's or flags, usually confuse day traders but there is no real confusion yet because most are still bears.
What you have to understand, markets take the direction where buyers and sellers take it of course, but as in the normal markets you have another party that have different strategies. Banks and hedge funds, they tend to take the direction where most liquidity is. Meaning that if most people are selling or going short, they are more than happy to let you sell into their buy orders. What is their next goal, they try to push prices higher and make an attempt to force a short squeeze so all the bears cut their losses and close their position's with a loss. The same thing happens on the other side as well of course. Think about the 11K levels everything was looking so bullish and most here were buying and buying again. Another good example is that range of 7800/9000 2 months back (after the 6K low) that range confused allot of people (including me :)).
I have been expecting low prices for a long time now, my followers know i am a big bear when it comes to the Bitcoin. I just did not expect it to drop this fast and so low already. Which could mean i am slightly off with my theory, or i am completely wrong and that even i give this market to much credit :). Meaning it's even weaker than i thought and the crash will be even more severe and faster than i thought.
So what do i expect, as long as we don't break the 6500 and a max of 6000, that it's time to shake out all the bears and make them bulls again. Ideally we get above the 8K because than most people will get hope again. As long as price stays below 9200/9800 everything is still bearish on the long term.
It's still weekend now, so even IF we drop, i think it will be later tonight when Asia wakes up again. Maybe i will go short when we break the low at 6600/6500, don't know yet. But for the ones who are still short, just be on the lookout if a very big buying candle shows up, like the one i have showed several times lately. That could indicate a reversal. I know you guys expect a more direct analysis from me, but at the moment i am just still on the sideline waiting
It's something what i have been seeing the last month, when price was above the 9K most were bullish and when price got below 8K most became bears again. And they kept on changing each time we crossed these levels. It's has always been like that, the higher prices go the more bullish the bulls get. And of course the lower prices go the more bearish bears get.
2 days ago i thought (half way of the pattern) we were making a wedge which would predict a small relief rally towards 7300/7500 but within an hour or 2 after i posted it price already got to high to still make it a wedge. Now we are making a big bear flag again, which is really starting to weaken now, because the highs keep getting lower which let you see a descending triangle (just like the one we saw 4 days ago). Even if this pattern is just it, normally it would be to soon to break the low already and i would expect a small rise towards 6900/7000 before dropping again. Not necessary of course, but it's what usually happens. These consolidation's or flags, usually confuse day traders but there is no real confusion yet because most are still bears.
What you have to understand, markets take the direction where buyers and sellers take it of course, but as in the normal markets you have another party that have different strategies. Banks and hedge funds, they tend to take the direction where most liquidity is. Meaning that if most people are selling or going short, they are more than happy to let you sell into their buy orders. What is their next goal, they try to push prices higher and make an attempt to force a short squeeze so all the bears cut their losses and close their position's with a loss. The same thing happens on the other side as well of course. Think about the 11K levels everything was looking so bullish and most here were buying and buying again. Another good example is that range of 7800/9000 2 months back (after the 6K low) that range confused allot of people (including me :)).
I have been expecting low prices for a long time now, my followers know i am a big bear when it comes to the Bitcoin. I just did not expect it to drop this fast and so low already. Which could mean i am slightly off with my theory, or i am completely wrong and that even i give this market to much credit :). Meaning it's even weaker than i thought and the crash will be even more severe and faster than i thought.
So what do i expect, as long as we don't break the 6500 and a max of 6000, that it's time to shake out all the bears and make them bulls again. Ideally we get above the 8K because than most people will get hope again. As long as price stays below 9200/9800 everything is still bearish on the long term.
It's still weekend now, so even IF we drop, i think it will be later tonight when Asia wakes up again. Maybe i will go short when we break the low at 6600/6500, don't know yet. But for the ones who are still short, just be on the lookout if a very big buying candle shows up, like the one i have showed several times lately. That could indicate a reversal. I know you guys expect a more direct analysis from me, but at the moment i am just still on the sideline waiting
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When we zoom in, we see a bear flag with a target around 6400/6300. Price is hanging around the support level of the bear flag which gives a big chance we drop below it and break the support. הערה
Volume is getting lower the last 2 days, but that only confirms the big bear flagהערה
Just to be clear, before the questions come again asking if i have become a bull and if my strategy has changed. NO, my longer term view has been the same for a long time and has not changed and won't change soon. It's just that markets move in waves, the most difficult part is predicting these waves, that's what i am trying to do. Not like many analysts here that give extreme ranges protecting them selves for being wrong. I always stick my neck out with my thoughts and my short term views on the 1 min and 5 min chart, which are the most difficult ones to predict most of the time. I can always change my short term strategy, do it all the time, but i have to feel comfortable with it
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This could maybe even be the most likely outcome, i did not show it in the primary chart because it would become to confusing. I have seen these kind of moves many times in the stock market after a big drop. It's all guessing though, so it's difficult to hang a trading strategy on it. הערה
I am out guys, good luck tradingהערה
So we dropped out of the bear flag, not reached the target yet. Also dropped below the big bear flag, could test it as resistance now. But watch out for a reversal, price should not get above 6700ish anymore, because than things could get tricky.Now it's making another small bear flag, which could bring price to that green area target i mentioned before
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Each exchange shows a slightly different picture, Bitfinex made a minimal lower low, but still inside the flag. הערה
Closing in on the target, i just went long at 6490 with a very small position and will add around 6400/6450. This is a very risky play guys! So i keep my position small, 20% of my normal size because it's a counter trend tradeהערה
Still no little bounce, so probably another small wave down firstהערה
Got the other half in too, looks like a small wedge here, should see a bounce now of 150/200 points, otherwise it's no wedge of course. I have my stop around 6250 and i wont be adding anymore!!הערה
For this wedge to be valid, price should not drop below that red area around 6400. And price should go up within the next half hour or so.הערה
Sorry guys, i have to go again. Good luck! :)הערה
I have another half hour extra :), pattern almost getting invalidated. Should not get so far into the end of the wedge. Bulls should take control sooner in a wedgeהערה
First target is not so easy to to give, could be the first red area around 6600 but probably the higher one at 6650, which would also mean a test of the big bear flag again. It just broke out, but the move is nothing yet, need to see a real move of at least 150/200 points, to scare short positions into closing their positions (buying) which could trigger a short squeeze. If they wont be able to do that, would mean that short positions are way to comfortable with their position and there won't be enough buying power to push this market higher. Bulls won't get the job done on their own, we have seen that the last 2 weeks. So we need the shorts to start closing. While i am writing this it is not pushing through, some hesitation which is a sign of weakness. Anything above 6480 is still okay, but we should not get lower than that. I think i will move the stop for half my position to 6460 (entry level of that half) so i reduce risk. Because below that level the wedge becomes invalid
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Should not take to long, otherwise this hesitation turns into another bear flagהערה
And buying volume is still low! possible bear flagהערה
The wedge has almost completely lost it's momentum, needs to do something very soonהערה
Looks like Bitstamp is getting some dumpingהערה
I have my stops now at 6440 and 6380 for an 60 point loss. It's still looking to weak. I saw a pattern, reacted on in, got good prices, jumped up 50/100 points, but that was it. Not easy to accept it, but not everything works out of course. Otherwise everyone could earn money here, that's just not possible of course :)הערה
First stop went throughהערה
This is more like it. Dropped out of the flag and right back in again. Seen this before, could be a reversal for the next few hours. But on average the market it just very weak! Still have one half of my position. To bad i had my stop at 8430 :)הערה
Oh it's already jumping :)הערה
Remember this picture? What i said would be the most likely outcome :)הערה
If they manage to make a good bull flag here, price should go towards the 7100הערה
It's very good sign price got above the 6700 already, those other 2 red area's are the next to resistances. But i think they will crack very easy. The 7100 is the first target and also the resistance of that big bear flag. 7300 is the biggest obstacle, Above that level prices could go to the 8K levels again. But that's getting ahead way to much of course הערה
Guys? i think i deserve a few more likes than this right? :)הערה
The rally is weakening slightly now, agressive trader closes some and buys back later, or just sits on it and waits. I go out few weeks ago at 8000 thinking a flag would come and i could get in around 7800 again, i missed the whole second ride up than :(הערה
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As long as price stays above 6700, this rally is still at full forceהערה
Could move something like this now, it's just guessing!!הערה
It's in a small range now, volume has dropped (normal in a flag). That red area around 6650 is where i have my stop. הערה
Flag is showing allot of strength with hanging around the high, could be we just go up from here,הערה
Still inside that channelהערה
When we zoom out a bit, we have a clear picture of that resistance it has from that H&S it made yesterday. No guarantee it will break, could be to heavy since the market has been extremely weak lately. But if it does break, i expect another short squeeze הערה
The flag has become a bit clearer now. If price stays inside this channel, expect another wave up. Should not take hours to break it, because than chances increase it will fail!הערה
I am back again, to see that BTC has been disappointing again If we stay above the 6700/6650 things could still get bullish, but fact that price was not able to reach the top of that bear flag is a very weak signal AND it did not reach the target of 7100ish. Actually meaning that the bulls are still nowhere to be found. The fact that it's still weekend and a holiday weekend probably plays a big role in this. At the moment it's finding some support at what could be the neckline of an H&S. 2 options here, market is weak and we will see a lower high forming now and break the neckline to loop up the lows again, or this H&S fails and we see another small rally up again.
I am closing half my position below 6740 and the other half below 6640
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Should be getting our answer soon, right shoulder almost completeהערה
And there was that small rally because of that failed H&S. Now it is starting to look like a rising wedge, so things could get tricky. Price is also close to that big resistance line of that big bear flag. A break above this level would be a short term bullish sign.When we look at the 4H chart, we have some reversal signs. That would probably indicate that price just keeps on going up like this. I have my stops in place, half at 6700ish and half at the break of that wedge around 6800/6850
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Think we have a new channel now and BTC is at the resistance level of that big bear flag. הערה
New analysis
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