Bitcoin Daily Update (day 281)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

For a variety of reasons I no longer believe that $2,718 will be the bottom of the 2018 Bitcoin’ bear market. I am now very confident that we will return to $1,000 before finding a bottom. That is due to Tyler Jenks’ hyperwave theory and the Point of Control on the Visible Range Volume Profile with > 2 year look back | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018, however I do not believe that will be the bottom. Strongly expect ETH to return to single digits before the end of 2019 | Calling a top in the S&P 500 at $2,634


Previous analysis: “It can be frustrating when things are so neutral. However this is a great time to practice patience and potentially focus on other markets.”
Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short ADA:BTC from 954 sats | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00778 | Short XRP:BTC from 8710 sats | Short USDT:USD from $0.99

Patterns: Bear channel / hyperwave
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,375 (currently being tested) | R: $3,600
BTCUSDSHORTS: Looks like it is trying to find support above down trendline
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0075%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Close below
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Held very nicely as resistance
Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Bearish as it gets
Overall trend: Fully bearish
Volume: Volume decreasing as price consolidates / pulls up
Candlestick analysis: Lower high and lower low when comparing todays candle to yesterdays.
Ichimoku Cloud: Tenkan-Sen continues to follow 9 MA and Kijun-Sen continues to track along the 33 MA while in a C-Clamp. Now I am noticing that the cloud seems to ~ line with with 200 MA. That makes a lot of sense why a kumo breakthrough would provide such good entries and the cloud would act as support / resistance beforehand. Really liking these traditional settings!
TD’ Sequential: Red 9 closed today
Visible Range: 1 month lookback shows high volume nodes from $3,600 - $4,400
Price action: 24h: -4.1% | 14d: -12.1% | 30 day: -44.6%
Bollinger Bands: Top band in line with 33 MA. Bband MA at $3,815
Trendline: Holding as resistance
Daily Trend (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend): Rolling over bearish
Parabolic SAR: $4,189
RSI: Back below 30 and appears to be finding resistance
Stochastic: Threatening to recross bearish < 20 after it looked to be providing a beautiful buy signal
Last Day Rule: I was incorrect the last couple days. Bears setup day was today when the candle closed above the low of 12/7. Trigger day would occur if price traded above today’s high ($3,603) at any point (wouldn’t have to wait for close).

Summary: As the price found resistance at the trendline things started to turn more bearish. The 9 day MA held as strong resistance, the RSI is back below 30, the Stochastic is threatening to recross bearish.

Volume has decreased while price has pulled up from the low. Today’s candle had a lower high and and a lower low when compared to yesterday’s candle.

I even considered taking the short entry on Bitcoin or Ethereum when the daily close below the 4 MA. However I passed because there are a couple very strong reasons telling me to stay away from shorts.

First is the 200 week MA which I expect to act as strong support.

Second is the daily Average Directional Index, which indicates in exhausted trend in the short term.



Third is the daily red 9, as well as an agressive 13, on the TD’ Sequential.



Fourth is the futures market being in backwardation for the last couple weeks. I have learned from Ugly Old Goat that this is a bullish indicator.

All in all I am still not taking a long until price close above the 9 MA, even then I may pass. If not I will be extremely careful with my position sizing and leverage due to betting again the trend.

I don’t like the risk:reward on a short at these prices and I don’t love the r:r on a long due to the 33 MA and daily parabolic SAR waiting from $4,181 - $4,500.