Think most of you have seen this chart on the right many times already. Problem with these long term lines, most draw them a they fit their picture, so subjective lines. So this is my (subjective) version :).
I think the line on the left is the correct version, that is because of those blue circle touches from past months. We can also see how that strange dump we had in the weekend bounced up from that support line. So i think the trend for 2020 will probably be decided after a break of the green or red zone. I have added the black zone as well, because it seemed to be a very significant level a year ago.
Think some of my long term followers might still know, since like Feb 2018, just after the ATH, i always kept saying, as long as we don't break the 13K, i will most likely NOT become a long term bull. Now in 2019, we went above, but it was only for a few hours. Now in combo with that big flag formation on the right, i think for the long term, it's VERY important to see a big rally if we would be able to break the red zone around 10.500. Now of course not expecting a 2/3K pump within a day or 2, but i don't think it should take weeks before we break the 13K. So this is just to say, if we rally, we should be cautioned about this.
Now that trend line on the left, broke and has been retested once already. Usually, a second test gives the bears the favor. So think price should not come close to 8500ish anymore. Touching 8.000, would prob mean that sooner or later, the green zone will probably break. Ideally for the bulls, in case we drop from current prices, that you see a higher low formed between 9000/8500 i think.
I also think, that if we would move in this range of 10.500/8000 for several weeks or longer, it would be in favor of the bulls. So i think based on this big picture, it might even take a while until we see a real rally, but that's just an assumption of course. Also saying that, because the bigger the foundation the bulls can create here (so a bigger consolidation), the bigger the support zone becomes. We have all seen what these straight line pumps mean in this market, they tend to be shaky and with all the mean shake out wicks, not many people are comfortable to simply Hodl no matter what.
The blue line on the right, is to show what should happen, in case we do break up coming days, or within a week or so
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