Fundamental Analysis on a two month time frame.
Recent technical analysis on BTCUSD has been great, for buying in on dips and small short upturn gains.
However, from a fundamental analysis perspective, the push from 30k back to 40k was a dead cat bouncing.
1. The economic environment has changed since BTCUSD peak. Retail traders, who have had extra money from stimulus and staying home,
are increasingly able to get back to regular life. This means less time trading and more time spending money. This is one outflow from BTC into fiat.
2. Institutional investors are no longer buying en mass. This may be due to a multitude of factors. They were a large part in the recent surge to 65k. Without them there is little hope that price will grow. Tesla, which purchased 1 billion in BTC will need to publish BTC losses this month. Losses will discourage other institutions from buying-in. (They are very likely to already be selling at any high)
3. Global political factors are having a negative influence on price. China, is looking to extend its inner-Mongolia rules to more regions. This means that BTC mining will need to move out of the region. Until this resolved there will be an outflow from BTC into FIAT due to uncertainty.
At this point in time, we are looking at phases of market participants exiting. Institutions -> long term holders (taking profit) -> A wave a traders deciding to take breaks due to low upsides. Why? There is simply more potential bad news when compared to potential good news for BTC in the short term.
However, from a fundamental analysis perspective, the push from 30k back to 40k was a dead cat bouncing.
1. The economic environment has changed since BTCUSD peak. Retail traders, who have had extra money from stimulus and staying home,
are increasingly able to get back to regular life. This means less time trading and more time spending money. This is one outflow from BTC into fiat.
2. Institutional investors are no longer buying en mass. This may be due to a multitude of factors. They were a large part in the recent surge to 65k. Without them there is little hope that price will grow. Tesla, which purchased 1 billion in BTC will need to publish BTC losses this month. Losses will discourage other institutions from buying-in. (They are very likely to already be selling at any high)
3. Global political factors are having a negative influence on price. China, is looking to extend its inner-Mongolia rules to more regions. This means that BTC mining will need to move out of the region. Until this resolved there will be an outflow from BTC into FIAT due to uncertainty.
At this point in time, we are looking at phases of market participants exiting. Institutions -> long term holders (taking profit) -> A wave a traders deciding to take breaks due to low upsides. Why? There is simply more potential bad news when compared to potential good news for BTC in the short term.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.