Bitcoin testing critical resistance

2 ביוני 2020

BTC is still keeping its bullish formation since March. As mentioned in the last idea, I am not bearish unless the daily timeframe is closed below $8,400.

However, keep in mind:

• BTC is currently at the critical resistance, ie. the February high.
  
• The uptrend channel since March 2020 has 'probably' become flatter. The reason I am saying probably is because there are yet two touches on the upper trendline to confirm the channel.
  
• There is bearish divergence on the daily timeframe.
  

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What does the above imply?
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This means that buying at the current price level (at resistance) is not interesting in terms of risk reward (if you have not bought previously). To become a consistently profitable trader, you only want to enter high probability and good risk reward set up. Over-trading and chasing the price will not last you very long in trading.

Before entering a trade, you need to ask yourself - where are you going to set your SL & TP? If you chase the price, you might get lucky once, twice, or even 50 times+ but that one black swan event similar to the one on the 12th March WILL blow up your account.

Although our recent buy on BTC at $9,000 did not get triggered, some of you may have entered a few alts with me. The worst that could happen to us now is that we get stopped out with little or no losses as we have moved SL to break-even on some of those positions.

In terms of my long term positions on BTC ?
I will close all of my $7,700 positions if price reaches $11,400, leaving the $7,000 positions. (Check below for my long term investment BTC portfolio)

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Risk management series:

• Chapter 1: 1% rule
• Chapter 2: How to calculate position size?
• Chapter 3: The Sweet Spot
• Chapter 4: Scalability

Past winning trades: (without leverage)
Bought between $5,000 - $5,500. Sold around $6,850 (30% profits)
Entered $8450, sold around $9,800 (16% profits)
Bitcoin dropped from 12k to 7k as expected (40% fall)
Bitcoin, perfect call (300% profits)
Bitcoin, bought between 6.8k - 7.3k (40% profits)
Bitcoin dropped to 3.5k as expected (40% fall)
Bitcoin, bought $6220 target $8480 (36% profits)