BTC Has Reached a Long-Term Logarithmic Trendline

29 באוג׳ 2022

Primary Chart: BTC's Long-Term Upward Trendline that Has Held as Support since 2013 (Weekly Log Chart)

BTC Appears to be holding right at a long-term trendline that has held as strong support since 2013. The chart above is a logarithmic chart, which can help present a more accurate perspective of price action and price relationships when the chart covers a great deal of price history that spans a significant range of values.

The decline since the all-time high has been severe, but relative to BTC's entire price history as shown on the log chart, in percentage terms, the bear-market decline looks less severe than it does on the regular, linear-scaled price chart.

On the linear chart, BTC's decline has also reached key make or break levels determining whether the recent corrective bear rally will continue or whether new lows will be reached sooner than later. The Fibonacci Retracement levels below must hold if BTC is to avoid—at least in the next few weeks—heading back to test lows or make new lows. If the retracement levels below do not hold or are not recaptured—specifically the .618 R (which has already been broken this past week) and the .786 R, then BTC likely will be testing lows soon.

Supplementary Chart A: BTC's Fibonacci Retracement Levels Near Term



But the long-term trendline should also be watched. Given it's significance, it may be retested even if broken, making for frustrating trading for bears / bulls alike.

Good luck trading this week everyone.

Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.

DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.


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31 באוג׳ 2022

הערה

Price continues to meet and fail at the 20,488 level where the .618 retracement lies.

9 בספט׳ 2022

הערה

Although BTC moved slightly below the long-term logarithmic trendline (and these trendlines can always be drawn slightly above or below where they are drawn and still be valid), BTC has been stabilizing in a range around this trendline. Price appears to be retesting the logarithmic trendline today.

But price must exceed about $21,500 to $22,000 to recoup the trendline today and tomorrow. The level where the price must reach to recoup the trendline continues to rise as each day passes.

10 בספט׳ 2022

הערה

Update:

23 באפר׳ 2023

הערה

This is interesting. The log-based trendline for BTC's entire price history was published in September 2022 before it broke such TL to the downside. Hit the refresh arrow on the Primary Chart above to see what is happening with this trendline now. It appears to be a critical retest.

For those getting uber bullish after BTC's impressive run off of lows (short-term to intermediate-term bullish), you may want to see more proof of BTC exceed this TL (and holding decisively above) rather than just stall here or whipsaw around it on a retest! This presents an interesting level in any case that I had forgotten to check on in recent weeks.