BTC- Potential Bullish Breakout Soon
Potential breakout scenario assuming Wyckoff Re-Accumulation occuring past month.
Background: Cards are lining up for what could be an explosive breakout North. After the ATH in late February we entered a combination correction, dropping as far as ~19% from the ATH and setting the Selling Climax for this patter- but bears failed to push the price below ~50k at the low point of this pattern signaling strength from bears (and industry/whales), as we entered the ascending triangle pattern against ~60k we are in now. Bulls touched 59/60k on at least 11 different days in this pattern, and failed to breakout on each.
Originally ranging around 10% at the start of the pattern, volume and volatility decreased as we moved towards the last 3rd of the triangle pattern, indicating completion of this pattern is near and a big move is to be expected soon. Decreased volume and volatility indicates decreased interest from traders in this range. It also indicates that big money succesfully absorbed as much capital as possible from paper hands and stoplosses that they can help to power us through resistance around 60k to a new ATH, and profit off of it.
Prediction: Typically an ascending triangle will see a breakout around ~70% into the pattern (which recently occured), and along with other bullish indicators below, I feel a breakout North is more likely than South, however its important to maintain tight stoplosses here and take profit if you see the pattern break down. If we break below 55.5k / or the bottom of this trendline in the macro trend, we will likely revisit ~53k
Indicators:
Background: Cards are lining up for what could be an explosive breakout North. After the ATH in late February we entered a combination correction, dropping as far as ~19% from the ATH and setting the Selling Climax for this patter- but bears failed to push the price below ~50k at the low point of this pattern signaling strength from bears (and industry/whales), as we entered the ascending triangle pattern against ~60k we are in now. Bulls touched 59/60k on at least 11 different days in this pattern, and failed to breakout on each.
Originally ranging around 10% at the start of the pattern, volume and volatility decreased as we moved towards the last 3rd of the triangle pattern, indicating completion of this pattern is near and a big move is to be expected soon. Decreased volume and volatility indicates decreased interest from traders in this range. It also indicates that big money succesfully absorbed as much capital as possible from paper hands and stoplosses that they can help to power us through resistance around 60k to a new ATH, and profit off of it.
Prediction: Typically an ascending triangle will see a breakout around ~70% into the pattern (which recently occured), and along with other bullish indicators below, I feel a breakout North is more likely than South, however its important to maintain tight stoplosses here and take profit if you see the pattern break down. If we break below 55.5k / or the bottom of this trendline in the macro trend, we will likely revisit ~53k
- Bullish target: rise ~11,500 from breakout around 60k would put us in low to mid 70k range for take profit. Expect a breakout to retest the resistance zone between 59.5 and 61.5k at least once.
- Bearish target: If we fall under 58k look for a short retest of high 57k, if that fails a correction to 55k is our next strong support. If that fails likely fall to low 53/52k support and at that point I'd expect much deeper correction as much as 40% from the start of the downtrend.
Indicators:
- Bullish: Exchange Reserves very low
- Bullish: Miner inflow nonexistent, all the large miners are hodling
- Netural but indicate breakout soon: Volume declining signaling less interest in trading at this range, and healthy accumulation by industry/whales after shaking out paper hands
- Neutral but indicate breakout soon: Volatility decreasing, also signaling declining interest
- Bullish: Stoch RSI: indicates oversold on multiple timeframes
- Bullish: Semantics- Coinbase IPS in one week would greatly benefit from a strong bullish breakout this week/weekend
- Slightly Bearish: I observed that portions of this range indicated slightly bearish bias on red candles that had higher volume than buys. However measures against other indicators this isn't as strong
Special Note: Folks have observed Pi indicator converging and possibly crossing as early as 09 April. This may spook some investors and its timing within proximity to the end of this pattern may add a layer of semantic complexity if it weighs on traders too much. But also note that no indicator is right 100% of the time, and the past doesn't always repeat- factor in the HUGE industry support and interest this cycle compared to say 2017/2018 and its already a very different market. I expect that retail's influence in the next move, if bullish breakout, will be minimal due to industry having absorbed enough capital to fuel the breakout regardless. But keep tight stoplosses just in case Pi is right again.
הערה
Besides a bearish breakout, another possible invalidation, less likely however, is that we continue ranging farther into the triangle. Typically an ascending triangle breaks as a continuation around 80% of the time, and reversal the other 20%, so best of luck traders.
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