BTCs Magic Mining-Difficulty-Cycles And The Current One!

22 ביוני 2021

Hello Traders Investors And Community,

Welcome to this analysis about Bitcoin in which I want to look at the weekly timeframe and as I recently discovered Bitcoin not only has the underlying halving-cycles that determine important price-action-patterns in the market but also the main mining-difficulty-cycle which is repeating every 200000 blocks when the mining difficulty reaches its peaks. There is a very precise similarity within these cycles with some deviations and compared to the current situation Bitcoin is in the middle of this repeating cycle. As I discovered there are simultaneous processes within Bitcoins price-action and the rising mining-difficulty which is always set to 0 after 200000 blocks are mined, together with this there is also a present correlation with the historical halvings.

The Mining-Difficulty-Cycle-Phases:
As seen already in the past with the developed mining-difficulty-cycles marked in my chart with the letters A and B there are three main phases in which the mining-difficulty-cycle can be separated. The first is the accumulation phase reaching from the blocks mined 0 to the average blocks mined of 65000, in this phase the price-action remains in this lower channel of the major price-action-cycle, in this lower channel Bitcoin accumulates before the further phase establishes. The second phase is the expansion phase and what is amazing here is that the historical halvings actually mark the starting of this phase at around 65000 blocks mined, in this phase, the bullish price-actions heavily expand and new highs establish with increased volume and volatility to the upside. The last phase then is the contraction-phase in which a new peak is established at around 135000 blocks mined before a markdown begins and bearish price-action settles till the total blocks mined reaches the total 200000 which also marked the main bottoms in 2015 and 2018 before the mining-difficulty set to 0 and the cycle repeats.

Mining-Difficulty-Cycles Separated and Fractaled:

- In this chart above are the three mining-difficulty-cycles displayed in separated and fractal windows. It shows the similarity within the two already completed cycles with the phases in the market-cycles similar to the actual bitcoins mined and mining difficulty. In the third cycle is also shown how the historical halving event affected the cycle and as for now, the current cycle is also repeating similarly to the previous ones. There are now around 50000 blocks of bitcoin remaining till the cycle theoretically ends.

Comparison To The Current Mining-Difficulty-Cycle And Upcoming Perspectives:
Taking all these factors into consideration now there is a clear underlying mining-difficulty-cycle in which the number of bitcoin blocks mined determines the current market-trend-phase and how further developments establish. In the current mining-difficulty-cycle, there are around 135000 blocks already mined and Bitcoin so far followed the magic patterns of the previous cycles with the accumulation phase and the expansion phase triggered by the halving. This means that when the block amount mined further increases the cycle will come to an end and also the price-action can develop in terms of a potential change in direction. When looking at the mining-difficulty-cycles of the past it is likely that the actual contraction phase already set in and the peak was reached, on the other side there is the possibility given that there comes a last upthrust before the cycle moves into the contraction phase however this does not necessarily need to happen as the blocks mined amount already reached the average peak amount of the previous cycles. Therefore the possibility that Bitcoin is already in the contraction phase and that there is more to come should not be underestimated especially after the heavy sell-outs the empirical contraction-phase similarly to the past cycles could be given already.

In this manner, thank you everybody for watching, support the idea with a like and follow or comment, have a good day, and all the best!

Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.