BTC: A Strong Case for Wyckoff Distribution - 2020

26 באוג׳ 2020

This is literally textbook Wyckoff Distribution. I urge you to make your own decisions and google "Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #1." Compare what I've charted to the classic schematic. They are nearly identical.

In other words: we are headed down. Significantly and severely down. Good luck!

See you for The Great Bull Run in 2021-23.

And beware:
"...a UTAD may induce smaller traders in short positions to cover and surrender their shares to the larger interests who have engineered this move. Aggressive traders may wish to initiate short positions after an UT or UTAD. The risk/reward ratio is often quite favorable. However, the "smart money" repeatedly stops out traders who initiate such short positions with one UT after another, so it is often safer to wait until Phase D and an LPSY."

26 באוג׳ 2020

הערה

Terms and the schematic are found here: stockcharts.com/articles/wyckoff/2015/09/distribution-definitions.html

26 באוג׳ 2020

הערה

If you are going to short this, please review the price action on 7/4/2019. Just as I mentioned above, PA did an upthrust that reached just shy of the UTAD, wrecking shorts and trapping longs. If you are using leverage, ensure the liquidation or stop is higher than the UTAD high.

26 באוג׳ 2020

הערה

And by 7/4/2019, I meant starting on 7/4/2019. There is a 1500 point upthrust from an ~11500 easy short entry...

26 באוג׳ 2020

עסקה פעילה

I'm Short: 11500 @ 10x.
Target 1: 10600
Target 2: 9200
Target 3: 7700

This will unfold over the next couple months. In the next 14 days: 10600, minimum, followed two weeks later by the mid to low 9000s. Speed of targets is dependent on how rapidly bulls capitulate the dream of a 2020 bullrun.

No time frame for 7700 and lower at this time.

Note: these moves are independent of the world markets collapsing. Should those start coming down -- and they will -- we could very well hit $2000. This would be ideal for BTC's health as it would act as a Wyckoff spring for The Great Bull Run to $100,000+

Good luck everyone.

27 באוג׳ 2020

הערה

Still short despite huge up move because it was expected. Should be starting EW #3 down now.

27 באוג׳ 2020

הערה

I should mention, this short idea invalidates if we break the high of 12500. Otherwise, I'm holding on to this with an iron fist to at least until 9200.

29 באוג׳ 2020

הערה

There could be one last push to the upside. If so, my projected target is 12079-12200. Argument for moving up:
1. PA is not yet pushing to the downside impulsively
2. Price is not experiencing hard rejections from resistance
3. There appears to be interest in propping this up around 11450
4. Liquidity pool at 12k is tempting for market makers
5. CME closed at 11630, so if a gap forms, it would be closed on the way back down
6. We have not yet tapped the hourly pivot at ~11842
6. Another move up makes sense to further trap retail bulls and wreck shorts

Nothing has changed.

I knew coming in that this was going to be a hard short with high volatility and would require steely determination in my risk tolerance in order to execute it successfully. If we approach 12000 and higher, I will add to the position.

29 באוג׳ 2020

העסקה בוטלה באופן ידני

Bear trap. Look for downside fakeout and then 14k+. PA is eerily similar to mid-July prior to the move up from ~9ks to ~12ks.

Good luck.

2 בספט׳ 2020

הערה

Oh rough. I had an upside max target of 12079 to 12200 and we peaked at 12086. Unfortunately, I got swept up in the bullishness, started thinking we were leaving the range, and ultimately deviated from my plan.

The reality: we are not leaving the range. The retest occurred and failed. Downside targets remain 10600 and then 9200. 10600 should occur within 24 to 48 hours. I do expect a bounce to the 11600 region first, then down. Good luck.

2 בספט׳ 2020

הערה

The good news: my trading plan was spot on.
The bad news: my trading of it was not. Managing the emotions is the hardest part. Still, I'm looking to lock in significant profit in this move down.

4 בספט׳ 2020

הערה

WOW. What a day. Profitable? Yes. As profitable as it could have been had I stuck to my original plan? No, not even close. Still, this was a great experience. I certainly never expected such a sudden and rapid descent. Anyone reading this: the trend now is down, very, very down. Longing price is currently a counter-trend trade (higher risk) so please use caution.

At this point, I'm thinking price will head much lower over time. We just had a drop from 12500 to 10000 WITHOUT the bubble markets collapsing. When the other markets succumb to their own weight, we should expect lows equivalent to the "black swan event" in March. In fact, I would not be surprised to see a lower low, a close of the _tiny_ CME gap around 3500 and then, perhaps, a sub 2000 BTC. However briefly. The ultimate shakeout.

Hopefully, from the ashes of a wrecked, over leveraged debt system, BTC can rise and The Great Bull Run will begin in late 2021 and gallop through 2023 to the mythical $100,000 and beyond.

Good luck.
Good luck.

23 באוק׳ 2020

הערה

What have we learned? Well, this is incorrect! :D

But why?

Because literally every BTC stepping stone re-accumulation follows the same pattern (approximately). The previous trading range maps out very similarly. In fact, if you go back and look, all the stepping stones track very similarly.

If correctly applied, this knowledge is immensely powerful.