‎Still range bound, but watch for triangle breakout‎ ‎BITSTAMP:BTCUSD‎ ‎f-73‎

Price action stays range bound within MA200/W to MA100/W area. We have a sparse ascending triangle forming (bullish bias), but its upper bound ( around 7100/7200$) should be considered strong resistance given the confluence there of FIB retracement 0.5 and MA100/W.

IF bulls manage to break through, 10500$ would come back into reach.
On the contrary, if bears manage to breakout support a deeper ABC like correction would be the expected outcome.

All in all we have a pretty straightforward setup here and plenty of interesting options.
Watch for triangle breakout and act accordingly.

הערה:

Here we go, momnet of truth ahead:

Get ready.

הערה:

Testing resistance now.
We'll see.

הערה:

Still there, after a failed breakout of resistance.

A look to LOG chart will highlight the clear rejection by the dynamic descending resistance:

Price still facing the well known resistance area around the 7100$ mark.
The fact support was lost without suddenty igniting a strong breakdown is interesting.

We should notice the completion of a small diamond formation encompassed by a broader almost symmetrical triangle. Considering the very low volume figures we should assume a strong move is nearing, within few days.

While outlook stays bearish under resistance, bulls may still attempt a breakout as long as fragile support at 6600$ holds.

הערה:

Short term bulls need to find a bounce.

הערה:

Here goes the rebound.

Surgically at resistance again:

4th test in a row, time to go ?
Let's see.

הערה:

5th attempt in a row, come on this is getting ridiculous ..

הערה:

Watch that parabolic SAR: so close ....

הערה:

Here we go ... breakout and parabolic SAR reversal on daily.
As usual we get volatility just before Futures expiration (tomorrow).

Now we need a close well over 7200$ both today and on weekly close,confirmed by good volume. Tomorrow will bevery important.

הערה:

Set your Take Profit, volatility ahead.

הערה:

(Short term)

It's close to next resistance ( MA20/W).
Watch that blue support.

Use a TP: play safe and wait for the outcome.

הערה:

A lot of resistance there.

I'll let TP control this in order to leave bulls a chance.
Yet realistically it's quite likely to confirm that rising wedge and pull back.

הערה:

Here it is:

Red line is MA20/W, an important resistance.
It's also middle line of weekly BB, meaning medium the term NEUTRAL trend signal.

So we're about to witness the START of a fight for next overall trend here and since we're close to neutral there's not much bias.

We'll have to pick between a parabolic rise (40%) or a pullback (60%).
The first option is less likely yet quite "appetible", hence i prefer staying Long here and let a take profit do the "dirty" work here.

הערה:

Staying long against odds was indeed a good choice ...

הערה:

MA50/W reached.

הערה:

Now Bitcoin is going to face a strong resistance area again, from MA50/W ( close to 8800$ mark ) to about 9200$ ( top of channel ).

Pullback likely from there.

הערה:

Pullback ongoing, bias stays bullish as long as price keeps over 8000$.

Mind that TD=8 count though.
That as well as overbought on daily suggests using some caution next few days.

הערה:

Weekly ciew: notice how price stepped on the edge of the aforementioned resistance zone ( M150/W to upper bound of descending channel).

הערה:

First key support is MA20/W (red) around 7900$ mark.

הערה:

Scenario unchanged.
No signal, no hurry.

Short term watch for channel breakout on volume or rejection.
That's your signal.

Meanwhile, longer term consideratione, Parabolic SAR will probably flip on tomorrow close, that's good.

עסקה סגורה: הגיע לסטופ:

Closed 50% of the ongoing Long trade.

This Long was running since 5710-6100$ area.
I think it's about time to fill my pockets with some gain.
Profit management-

הערה:

Watch closely this infraction:

הערה:

Here it is testing MA50/W.

If it fail to rebound here firther weakness likely.

הערה:

Here we are, pullback ongoing as forecated 5 days ago.

Short term:

Short on time, so i'll simply share this.

Mind that descending channel and that possible minor rising wedge.
We have this shallow support around the 8500$ area, we may measure bulls strength there. Still there's resistance from 8800$ up, as we already know.

It's soon to say, but we may have a broader descending triangle formation (yellow) there.

הערה:

We may have a TD Count=13 tomorrow.

הערה:

Very tight price action.

Placing a Stop BUY in order to intercept FOMO if that's the case and waiting for tomorrow price action.

הערה:

Soon we'll know whether that's just a mere pullbuck, as it looks, or something more.

Good night.

הערה:

Yes, that's pretty boring.

הערה:

This is likely to be a TD count=13

It means bull do have some strength, otherwise they would have failed way before. It also means the odds of a pullback increase drastically from here, hence you have to protect your open positions accordingly.

The overall length of this strip will tell mpre about the ongoing trend.

הערה:

Testing top of channel again.

עסקה פעילה:

Stop buy fired at 9208$.
Following with trailing SL

הערה:

Still within an ascending channel.

הערה:

Still within an ascending channel.

הערה:

(Short term)

Close to main resistance area ( roughly 10000 to 10500$ ).
Mind the possible rising wedge.

Decent area to take some profit awaiting a test of main resistance.
Otherwise protect your position with a TP.

הערה:

(Short term)
Triangle, upper bound oc previous channel as support.
FOMO needed here or pullback.

Watch it, have a TP.

הערה:

The main idea here is price *;AY* try to achieve a cup & handle pattern to breakout 10000$ area.

Let's see whether bulls have enough strength.

הערה:

First attach failed, retrace to neckline.

הערה:

They may retry within this impulse, as long as support holds.

A bit boring, i'm letting a conservative TP taking care of profit protection.

עסקה סגורה: הגיע לסטופ:

Support lost.

TP fired at 9770$, 50% liquidated.

הערה:

Trying to breakout channel.

עסקה פעילה:

Got orders filled at 8200, 8800$

הערה:

Here we are.
S1 gone ( rising wedge ).
S2 ( channel ) still running.

Lets see.

הערה:

Putting everything into perspective:

That channel is bulls main road.
As long as it holds, that's fine.

הערה:

There's a bearish pennant forming, threatening the bottom of channel.

Protect your position, mind the fact that trading below 8400$ would mean playing with fire (both ways). Act accordingly.

הערה:

To keep it short: bulls have to try to recover 8800$ in order to breath a bit, whereas bears are expectedo to try tio pierce 7900-8200$ in order to achieve a broader ABC correction.

Now we're just in-between.
So act responsibly.

הערה:

Nice, bulls bought some time.

Now that's either a flag or an ascending channel.
Hopefully the latter.

הערה:

Watch for this acending triangle breakout.

הערה:

Breaking out.

With some decent volume (yet to be seen) 9200$ should be feasible.
We'll see.

הערה:

Fine.

*IF* it manages to breakout 9200$ on decent volume we may have confirmation of a diamond / double bottom.

Please don't fail there, Bitcoin ...

הערה: