Bitcoin loosing momentum short term
מעודכן
Looks like Bitcoin is loosing some momentum now. Starting to have troubles making new highs. Nothing special yet, it has made an insane rally already so it has to drop at some point. No way of telling when during a madness rally like this. But now we might have something to go on. The upwards trend line just broke, so now we get to see if it can get back above the 7300ish or make a lower high there and drop even more. Ideally we see another push to 7600/7650 and then make 1000 point drop.
7000ish is an important level now, but the biggest one will be around 6700. This level should hold IMO. A V shape high, meaning that we will dump even much more, is very unlikely after such a strong rally. So as long as we stay above the 6600ish, we should see another move up to make a lower or higher high.
Corrections are after such a big rally, are always very fast and violent, can also be big as well. 1000 points seems a lot, but when you zoom out, you can see it's actually quite normal. As mentioned in my previous analysis, trading this, long or short is very tough. But when being patient you sometimes get nice patterns to trade on. Like i mentioned, seeing a wedge and or an H&S. We had a perfect one yesterday. So instead of gambling, try to get the odds on your side. Better to miss out on a move than to loose.
Mid-term picture, i still can't give a nice road map, i hope to see one very soon. This was my previous one i made 5/6 weeks ago. Since the rally became so much bigger, it has changed everything for me, I had 6500 in mind, changed it to 6800ish past days but now touching 7600, it makes it completely different. I usually always have a bigger picture road map to fall back on after big moves, but this rally has been quite insane :).
There will form something again soon, just need to be patient about it. Have to say, now when looking at that 2015 rally i showed a week ago, getting very similar now. Don't think a dump like then to 4000 is likely this fast though. This market is much bigger than in 2015.
Previous analysis:
7000ish is an important level now, but the biggest one will be around 6700. This level should hold IMO. A V shape high, meaning that we will dump even much more, is very unlikely after such a strong rally. So as long as we stay above the 6600ish, we should see another move up to make a lower or higher high.
Corrections are after such a big rally, are always very fast and violent, can also be big as well. 1000 points seems a lot, but when you zoom out, you can see it's actually quite normal. As mentioned in my previous analysis, trading this, long or short is very tough. But when being patient you sometimes get nice patterns to trade on. Like i mentioned, seeing a wedge and or an H&S. We had a perfect one yesterday. So instead of gambling, try to get the odds on your side. Better to miss out on a move than to loose.
Mid-term picture, i still can't give a nice road map, i hope to see one very soon. This was my previous one i made 5/6 weeks ago. Since the rally became so much bigger, it has changed everything for me, I had 6500 in mind, changed it to 6800ish past days but now touching 7600, it makes it completely different. I usually always have a bigger picture road map to fall back on after big moves, but this rally has been quite insane :).
There will form something again soon, just need to be patient about it. Have to say, now when looking at that 2015 rally i showed a week ago, getting very similar now. Don't think a dump like then to 4000 is likely this fast though. This market is much bigger than in 2015.
Previous analysis:
הערה
So the 7300 became an exact reistance from we we dropped to 7000, made a big bear flag and dropped to below the 6800 even. So we already have an 800 point drop. This could be it already but i think we are not done yet. Seeing a small attempt now to move up again. The bear flag and the H&S have a target around 6600. So still a big chance we might get to see that as well coming day or 2.
7000ish is a resistance now, 7140 as well and then 7300 being a bigger one again. If 7000ish breaks, than the bearish momentum on the short term might end.
Selling volume has increased quite a lot as well past day. Volume is 9 billion today on Bitmex, think maybe even an ATH volume record.
Most alts have dumped again, almost being back to their starting points of yesterday. This is still a bad sign in general. Means the sentiment is not being carried through out the whole market. Think until this changes, the bear market is not over yet.
Going to write a new alt market cap analysis as well now. That one has been playing out almost perfect the past 2 months or so.
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New alts coin market cap analysis:
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New ETH analysis:
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New XRP analysis:
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Bitcoin possible fractal:
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I will try to write a normal analysis now as well. But oh boy, it won't be an easy :)
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