Analysis above uses only Fibonacci Retracement (at certain points and with different pivot references) and Gann Box
- 1. Considering that Halving 3 ends in the last weeks of December and therefore bear market takes effect from the first weeks of 2022.
- 2. Extending the Gann Box from the beginning of the rally in December 2020 to the end of the bitcoin cycle (last week of December) and using as a reference 5 pivot to fibonacci retracement to set maximum value of Gann Box
- 3. Thus it is possible to identify the lines of angles provided by the Gann Box , which often serve as resistance (red) or support (blue). Theory proven in the graph
- 4. In the last two weeks, BTC has been growing uninterruptedly and has started to lose strength in the last 3 days. The chance of it returning to the original value of 32k dollars is unlikely since using the Gann Box angle lines as a reference, there are numerous (5 to 7) support lines in addition to the fibonacci retracement support lines.
- 5. Currently BTC is exactly under the 0.5 fibo-retracement line from the two-week high, using 2. pivot . The 0.5 fibo line is one of the most important and hardest to break. It is possible to see that in these last 3 days, BTC tested the 0.5 fibo line (+- 39.5k $), managed to breakout, retested 1 time and is retesting for the second time. From the moment BTC mounts a base of 0.5 fibonacci, there will be a big upward stretch.
- 6. Before you leave writing in the comments that this analysis is proposing absurd growth values for BTC , it is worth remembering that BTC does not necessarily need to come out on top. There are relevant outputs in the Gann Box analysis. They are 0.25 = +42%; 0.382 = +91%; 0.5 = +138%; 0.618 = +186%; 0.75 = +235%; 1 = 330%. So as long as you believe that BTC will rise by the end of the year, regardless of your expectation, it makes sense to follow this chart.
- 7. Other exit points in December are the maximum fibonacci retracement values according to each pivot . As a rule, these horizontal purple lines represent great resistance while they are not broken, and provide support when they have already been passed. In the chart above I use pivots from the beginning of the BTC high in December 2020 and the beginning of 2021, as my goal is to do a broad analysis.
- 8. Referring to the fibonacci retracement of the beginning of the year (using pivot 2), its 0.5 fibo ($40755) line represents a major resistance for the month of August. If it is exceeded, BTC becomes officially, according to this BULLSIH chart.
- 9. If in the future this analysis remains valid, the expected and BTC rise between the two highest supports that go to the top
- 10. This is not financial advice.
- 11. Making a brief fundamental analysis:
- ETH Upgrade (EIP1559) in 2 days (August 4th). Makes transactions faster, burns ETH to pay transaction fees. It becomes more practical. Less GPU power consumption = Greener.
- Major upgrade in Cardano in October / November
- Upgrade in the first months of 2022: ETH 2.0: Transaction from "proof of work" to "proof of stake"
- Implementation of BTC as official currency in El-Salvador
- Germany authorizes personal investments of up to 20% in cryptocurrencies. Therefore, banks need to buy Cryptocurrencies to exchange.
- Migration of GPUs to USA and Paraguay, strengthening the idea of BTC in these countries.
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