Bitcoin Daily Update (day 282)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

For a variety of reasons I no longer believe that $2,718 will be the bottom of the 2018 Bitcoin’ bear market. I am now very confident that we will return to $1,000 before finding a bottom. That is due to Tyler Jenks’ hyperwave theory and the Point of Control on the Visible Range Volume Profile with > 2 year look back | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018, however I do not believe that will be the bottom. Strongly expect ETH to return to single digits before the end of 2019 | Calling a top in the S&P 500 at $2,634


Previous analysis: “As the price found resistance at the trendline things started to turn more bearish...there are a couple very strong reasons telling me to stay away from shorts.”
Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short ADA:BTC from 954 sats | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00778 | Short XRP:BTC from 8710 sats | Short USDT:USD from $0.99

Patterns: Bear channel / hyperwave
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3300 is weakening | R: $3,350
BTCUSDSHORTS: Had a bearish cross with the 4 and 9 MA’s and today’s candle pulled right into it.
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0504%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Close below, trending down
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Trending down and acting as resistance right on top of the trendline
Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Bearish
Overall trend: Bearish as it gets
Volume: Last few days have been well below MA. Closing below the body of the Dec 7th candle is very significant due to the volume. Expect that ($3,377) to become strong resistance.
Candlestick analysis: Opening below yesterdays close and closing below the wick is very significant. Indicates bearish momentum increasing.
Ichimoku Cloud: Tenkan-Sen starting to pull up from the 9 MA. I have seen C Clamps resolve themselves in this manner before while the price continues down / consolidates
TD’ Sequential: R2 would be below R1 at $3,300. However there are two reasons I would pass on that entry. 1: Trend Support 2: Sequential 13
Visible Range: 1 month lookback shows high volume nodes from $3,600 - $4,400
Price action: 24h: -1.6% | 2w: -8.2% | 30d: 44.9%
Bollinger Bands: MA = $3,770 | Bottom band at $3,141 and starting to trend down again.
Trendline: Drawn in chart above
Daily Trend (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend): Bearish. Did a great job of calling reversal then turning into resistance
Parabolic SAR: $4,151
RSI: Starting to resistance under 30
Stochastic: Re crossed < 20 and quickly diverged. That is very bearish. Wondering if 3d / W will fail to cross and / or get set at the bottom
Last Day Rule: Setup day at $3,631 held (so far). The more you track indicators the more you start to understand / trust them. This seems like a powerful tool and also feels like it will closely resemble Bill Williams Fractals.

Summary: Things are looking more and more bearish to me by the moment. The current open at the bottom of today’s candle, while I’ve been writing this, is not looking pretty. That is following the lowest daily close of 2018.

Really starting to wish that I listened to Consensio and held onto the majority of my short from $6,330. That is a lesson I will remember for a long time. Re entries have been signaled the last two days but each were > 10% risk and with the amount of support below us I felt compelled to pass.

Things are starting to shape up for capitulation before the year is over. The emotional state is still far from the level of fear the defines capitulation. If the rug gets pulled out from under at $3,000 then that could change very quickly.

At this point I think it is about 70% that we remain in the channel and breakdown $3,000. That being said I do not believe that the risk:reward justifies an entry.