Bitcoin has Almost set it's Long Term Low, not there Yet, Part 2
מעודכן
So far it is still looking good, looking gooooooood :) I deleted a few of the lines from the previous chart because they are not in play anymore. The options have become more limited now since we broke the 7150. Today we went to 7300 but got rejected just as fast again, but there was no real dump, as i am writing this the 7180/7200 is still holding very stable. Even if we would drop some more, towards 7100 or even 7000, it would still be nothing more than a correction of this wave up. In my previous analysis i mentioned the following:
For the coming days/week i see several options. Assuming the market is still bullish , i want to see it stay above the 6500ish. Best case we have set the low already today and we continue the rally to keep the speed of the rally at it's highest. The 7150 is an important level, it was a big resistance a weeks ago and this time once again. I think that if we go towards the 7100/7150 again within the next 2 days, i am quite sure it will break. As i mentioned the past few weeks, the 7300/7400 is the turning point for me between mid-term bull and bear market. So what i am thinking is, if we break the 7150 within the next 24H, the 7400 will most probably break as well. Assuming it will happen like that, the 7800/8000 will probably break as well and if that happens, the 8500 will just be a matter of time IMO -2.01% . This is the purple line version.
So far this plan is still working out, but i do have to say, it is a bit disappointing we got rejected so quickly at the 7300. On the right we see a possible wedge forming, but it's not the greatest though and it would mean we need another leg up towards 7300/7400 before dropping out of it to make it a real wedge. This could mean we can retest the 6800 once again. For now i still assume that trend line from the daily chart will give support and the plan i had in mind (from the previous analysis) was to see some kind of small parabolic move towards 7600/8400 before we make a good drop. But for this to happen, we need to see the bulls keep grip and make bigger and faster jumps up. Tomorrow it's Sunday, for this parabolic plan to work out, it is allowed to have another day of rest, but we need to see a continuation of the rally by Monday.
Another clear signal that's sticks out, we have seen alts make rallies the past 2 months, but after a decent rally of Bitcoin and the small rejection we saw today, we used to see alts getting dumped much more. They are very stable at the moment, it's maybe the first time since 2 months now. This is no guarantee, not telling it because of that, i am telling it, because to me it shows that the market is becoming more confident. Like the panic we had for quite some time is becoming less. Next to this, the panic selling/dumping we had on the 14th Aug, is still the low. This usually is a very big signal, but they are nothing more than signs.
For now, the levels to watch are the 7050/7150 zone and of course the 6800 as support.
Don't forget to like :)
Previous analysis:
For the coming days/week i see several options. Assuming the market is still bullish , i want to see it stay above the 6500ish. Best case we have set the low already today and we continue the rally to keep the speed of the rally at it's highest. The 7150 is an important level, it was a big resistance a weeks ago and this time once again. I think that if we go towards the 7100/7150 again within the next 2 days, i am quite sure it will break. As i mentioned the past few weeks, the 7300/7400 is the turning point for me between mid-term bull and bear market. So what i am thinking is, if we break the 7150 within the next 24H, the 7400 will most probably break as well. Assuming it will happen like that, the 7800/8000 will probably break as well and if that happens, the 8500 will just be a matter of time IMO -2.01% . This is the purple line version.
So far this plan is still working out, but i do have to say, it is a bit disappointing we got rejected so quickly at the 7300. On the right we see a possible wedge forming, but it's not the greatest though and it would mean we need another leg up towards 7300/7400 before dropping out of it to make it a real wedge. This could mean we can retest the 6800 once again. For now i still assume that trend line from the daily chart will give support and the plan i had in mind (from the previous analysis) was to see some kind of small parabolic move towards 7600/8400 before we make a good drop. But for this to happen, we need to see the bulls keep grip and make bigger and faster jumps up. Tomorrow it's Sunday, for this parabolic plan to work out, it is allowed to have another day of rest, but we need to see a continuation of the rally by Monday.
Another clear signal that's sticks out, we have seen alts make rallies the past 2 months, but after a decent rally of Bitcoin and the small rejection we saw today, we used to see alts getting dumped much more. They are very stable at the moment, it's maybe the first time since 2 months now. This is no guarantee, not telling it because of that, i am telling it, because to me it shows that the market is becoming more confident. Like the panic we had for quite some time is becoming less. Next to this, the panic selling/dumping we had on the 14th Aug, is still the low. This usually is a very big signal, but they are nothing more than signs.
For now, the levels to watch are the 7050/7150 zone and of course the 6800 as support.
Don't forget to like :)
Previous analysis:
הערה
Bitfinex is pumping Bitcoin big time, but other exchanges are not that confident yet, second problem, alts are not confident about it. Scrolled through a few, only BCH seems to have made a higher high, the rest all slightly lower. And the possible wedge i posted yesterday, still don't really like it, but i can't ignore it. Looking at Bitfinex it's not realy valid, bot all other are.
הערה
And look how the shorts on Finex went up big time, do not know yet what to make of this. הערה
Still can't really wrap my head around these things, but being objective, the 7300/7400 were my targets since a week ago, the alts not pumping now, other exchanges not follow finex. I would say, general alert :) Also for all the alt trades i gave. My view is still very bullish for the coming week, that has not changed. Just don't know if we will see a 100 or 400 point drop or not (wedge) are alts going to take a hit again before going up. Make up your own minds about this, just don't let greed or fear or F FOMO make your decision!!הערה
Welcome to crypto :)This candle here and that volume is normally a 10% guarantee that we drop more. But what do you know, in crypto, the biggest asset (Bitcoin) can be controlled by 1 person. The same one that pushed the price from 6230 to 6300 and higher (while the market was about to dump big time). Week later did the same around 6500 and today again. Setting up huge buy walls were almost nobody can push through.
Anyway, at the moment it's a coin toss if you ask me. We did the second leg up as mentioned above and from the looks of it the wedge is in play, but still i do not like the wedge, because the shape is not exactly how a wedge should be. But as mentioned above, the alts are a bit week today. That's also no guarantee because eventually they follow Bitcoin, but it shows the market is not extremely confident yet. In other words, alts want to make a healthy correction. If it was not because of that whale on Bitfinex, this would have been an easy short play, but who dares to f... with someone who can single handed move the complete market.
If we do break the support line, there is a chance we will find support around yesterdays low and we could make an H&S there, unless the bulls have the power to push it back above the 7300ish. So just a few scenario's to keep in mind, to be prepared so you don't make decisions based on fear or fomo.
הערה
We can say that H&S is not in play anymore and i am having more doubts about the wedge. It looks like one but it is not moving like one. But what the next step will be, i don't know. I though it would drop and it did a little bit, but we got pushed back up even faster. It almost looks like the market is eager to go up. It would fit my original picture, parabolic move up. Because today's high was just slightly higher than yesterday AND the alts were being careful, i gave the favor to a bigger correction towards 7000, but now i tend to be more bullish again. I said that it would fit the picture of a parabolic move up, meaning there was/is room for a rest day, meaning today. Monday we would need to break the 7400 to keep the parabolic move intact. We are half way of that rest day, so the closer we stay around the 7300 or even higher, i think the chances will increase for a another rally up.At the moment i just can't say, some buy signals and some sell signals, so still a coin toss at the moment :)
הערה
Update
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