Technical analysis update: BTCUSD (18th December 2021)

We continue to maintain a bearish view on Bitcoin as it continues to trade below the neutral zone. Since Bitcoin's rebound from its recent low at 41 967.50 USD on 4th December 2021 Bitcoin continues to make lower troughs and lower peaks which is indicative of the bearish trend. We expect an eventual retest of 41 967.50 USD price level and possible continuation of the bearish trend. We think that higher interest rates in the U.S. combined with constriction of money supply present a substantial threat to further rise of BTCUSD in the short-term and medium-term. Because of that we would like to set a short-term price target for BTCUSD to 42 500 USD.

Illustration 1.01

Picture above shows the hourly chart of BTCUSD. It also shows particular troughs and peaks.

Technical analysis - daily time frame
So far RSI failed to cross below 30 points; however, its structure remains bearish. Stochastic is also bearish. MACD is bearish too; DM+ and DM- show bearish conditions. ADX contains high value; and it continues to grow which suggests that the prevailing trend is either getting very strong or it nears its peak. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.

Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, Stochastic and MACD continue to develop bearish structures. DM+ and DM- are also bearish. ADX contains relatively low value which suggests that trend of higher degree is weak. In general, the weekly time frame is bearish which coincides with bearish daily time frame.

Illustration 1.02

We think that drop in price below recent low would result in extremely bearish conditions for BTCUSD.

Support and resistance
Major support level is at 28 600 USD while major resistance level is at 69 000 USD. Short-term resistance is at 48 834 USD while medium-term resistance lies at 52 956 USD. Between these two price levels lies the neutral zone. Other resistance levels appear at 59 564 USD and then at 64 895 USD. Other support levels can be found at 42 900 USD and at 37 573 USD. Additionally, support level can be also found at recent low of 41 967 USD.

Our bold predictions from the past:
16th November 2021

Here we predicted double top formation and subsequent meltdown in price.

26th November 2021

Here we layed out case for even more bearish scenario for BTCUSD.

DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.

עסקה פעילה:

BTCUSD continues to make lower peaks and lower troughs.

עסקה פעילה:

Bullish breakout from descending wedge took place. Price retraced back in the neutral zone.

עסקה פעילה:

Daily time frame shows first bullish signs. We will observe whether price will take out peak at 49 514 USD from 15th December 2021. In such case we might reassess our view.

עסקה פעילה:

BTCUSD took out 49 514 USD price level; it reached 49 600 USD and simultaneously retraced to its 20-day SMA. However, after that price broke below the neutral zone again. Setup remains valid and we continue to await more selling pressure.

עסקה פעילה:

Price broke back in the neutral zone. New bullish setup appears with entry above the support (lower bound of the neutral zone) and stop-loss slightly below it. On daily time frame RSI, Stochastic and MACD turned in the bullish direction. We will observe whether their bullish structures will continue to unravel in the following days.

עסקה פעילה:

Price of BTCUSD plunged below the neutral level (as it continues its series of breakouts) before retracing back abvove it. ADX on daily time frame reflects that current trend is neutral. Because of that we will continue to await either bullish or bearish breakout. Though, we continue to incline towards bearish scenario. This is mainly due to bearish weekly and monthly time frame.

עסקה פעילה:

Idea was updated in the following post:

עסקה סגורה: היעד הושג