Bitcoin (BTC) - Descending Triangle and Van Eck ETF Rejection
מעודכן
Yesterday showed just how indecisive this market can be while we remain wedged inside this Bitcoin no-trade zone. The price crashed from around $6320, down to a low of $6106, followed by a powerful bounce to $6517, before consolidating at around $6400. Good time to sit on hands.
I think the market is currently in limbo until the SEC announces the Van Eck ETF decision on 30 September 2018. The recent ETF decisions never had much of an impact on price, however the Van Eck ETF has carried a bit more weight in the media these past few months. Personally I don't believe the outcome will be positive just yet, at least until the red tape and custodian issues are ironed out first. Saying that, institutional developments are on the rise so hopefully we have an ETF by next year, if we're really really lucky!
If you look at the daily chart, we are currently in a Descending Triangle with horizontal support and falling resistance. Volume has been steadily dropping and RSI is at a crucial level of resistance. As you can see +-45 RSI has held as strong resistance until now.
I'll be going short once an ETF rumour is confirmed and once we have broken out of the descending triangle to the downside. Volume should spike and we should then expect to drop below our yearly low. If we fall below $5500 I expect a strong bounce from a $4955 bottom, if we don't find that strong bounce at those 5k levels, I think we're in trouble and can expect a lot more blood on the streets!
Projected Target: $5500
I think the market is currently in limbo until the SEC announces the Van Eck ETF decision on 30 September 2018. The recent ETF decisions never had much of an impact on price, however the Van Eck ETF has carried a bit more weight in the media these past few months. Personally I don't believe the outcome will be positive just yet, at least until the red tape and custodian issues are ironed out first. Saying that, institutional developments are on the rise so hopefully we have an ETF by next year, if we're really really lucky!
If you look at the daily chart, we are currently in a Descending Triangle with horizontal support and falling resistance. Volume has been steadily dropping and RSI is at a crucial level of resistance. As you can see +-45 RSI has held as strong resistance until now.
I'll be going short once an ETF rumour is confirmed and once we have broken out of the descending triangle to the downside. Volume should spike and we should then expect to drop below our yearly low. If we fall below $5500 I expect a strong bounce from a $4955 bottom, if we don't find that strong bounce at those 5k levels, I think we're in trouble and can expect a lot more blood on the streets!
Projected Target: $5500
הערה
It seems the SEC has again delayed their decision for the Van Eck ETF listing, asking for further comments on 18 issues. They need these comments to add to all their comments of all these comments. Let's see how far they kick the can down the road, although the fact that this hasn't been outright rejected may ultimately be a good thing. Maybe thanks to the new Bitcoin-loving commissioner.Unluckily, there are 2 more reasons for the market to go down in the last week of September so I don't think this changes much.
Mt Gox creditors meeting is on 26 September, with proposed talks of liquidating Bitcoin. Since there are 170 000 Bitcoins, I'm sure this is going to have an impact in one way or another, probably not positive since I can't think of a single positive thing to take out of that whole fiasco.
Volume has also been steadily dropping signifying a drop in trader interest and rise in bearish sentiment.
Still sitting on my hands until they're warm and there's clear direction. Not long now until the market makes up its mind.
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