Bitcoin Daily Update (day 240)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.


Previous analysis / position: “When in doubt, zoom out” Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 1 Month Chart / Short USDT:USD from 0.968 | Short ETHUSD from $197.81
Patterns: Broke down from Wyckoff hinge
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,215 | R: $6,354 is expected to become strong resistance
BTCUSDSHORTS: In yesterdays post I noted that the entire candle for 10/28 was below the triangle. That did not last long as that candle closed as bullish engulfing
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0426% - when is the last time shorts paid longs?!
Short term trend (4 day MA): Bear
Medium term trend (4 week MA): Bear
Long term trend ( 32 Week): Bear
Overall trend: Not getting too excited just yet. Weekly candle just opened and is barely below 4 MA
Volume: Volume from selloff is very unimpressive and has me concerned that this was another trap. I’m waiting for a daily candle with about 10X the volume to confirm that the move is real / going to continue
FIB’s: Selloff found support at 0.786 ($6,210) | Breaking down 0.618 ($6,327) is very significant | 1.618 extention is at $5,630
Candlestick analysis: 4h candles keep closing bullish wicks and then getting no follow through
Ichimoku Cloud: Interesting how the 12h closed 7 candles inside the cloud but not 1 above the Tenken-Sen or Kijun-Sen
TD’ Sequential: 1h bottomed on an 8 and had an imperfected 9 | Daily: r3 = r2 | W: r4 | M: looks like it will close below $6,390 and continue the setup with a r3
Visible Range: Looking back to Feb 2018 (when this range started) and the POC is at $6,339 with the bottom of the highest volume node at $6,162.
Price action: 24h: -2.28% | 2w: -2.71% | 1m: -4.45%
Bollinger Bands: Was unable to retest top band after closing above MA. Now expect bottom band to get retested at $6,155
Trendline: If connect March 5th to July 24th then price broke hrough down trend on Oct 22nd and the current selloff may only be a throwback to retest it for support. Today’s candle wicking off of that area is definitely interesting
Daily Trend: Bear
Fractals: Busted two down fractals on last move, new one waits at $6,055
RSI: 1h and 4h RSI’s got to < 20 on last sell off. Will the price bounce with the RSI or will we get a div?
Stochastic: 1h buy | 4h buy incoming

Summary: The longer the price remains below $6,375 then the more likely it is to kick off the next big trend. If selling volume dries up as the price falls then we should get another quick reversal and likely another higher high on the daily chart.

I was very disappointed to see the lack of volume behind this last move, which is indicative of a shakeout before the breakout. Nevertheless two more of my orders have filled and my stop loss has been adjusted accordingly.

From here I will be watching for a bounce on the 1h and 4h charts to retest $6,375 for resistance. If that holds then I will feel much more confident about the strength behind this move.

The key area of support is $6,050 - $6,150. If that holds up for the 9th' time then I will plan on another painful couple weeks - months of consolidating between $6,150 - $6,375. With each test the bounce is getting weaker and support is being chipped away. Once/if we get a daily close below $6,050 then expect the streets to get stained with blood in the following days/weeks.