BTC Decision Time (Again)
מעודכן
Here I present the case for the bulls and the bears using 12 hour candles.
We are currently range bound in a hold-your-position or no trade zone. (Yellow Triangle)
This will play out by the end of the weekend as it represents the end of the range.
Watch for Fake outs.
Bulls
- Reasonable support established in the $7600-8000 range off the back of a c.60% up move from the 6k lows
- Interest appears to be returning and the FUD articles are fading
- Arguable Inverted Head and Shoulders bottom has formed
- Reasonable prior week candle close (good but could have been better)
- Measure move Targets for this would be 11k + where additional resistance is found but this requires a break of the horizontal and - very strong diag resistance
- Dumps have been met by large market buy orders and buy support below is strong
- RSI is trending up
Bears
- Very strong levels of Horizontal resistance at $9-10k alongside multi week horizontal resistance.
- A lot of long positions were opened to support the dip to 6k with profit taking on the short positions; price has recovered off the back of this but has not been met by the bears, meaning that they have reserves in the tank to re enter, there is no short squeeze fuel and the bulls buying interest is fading.
- Generally the bid support on the exchanges is c.20% lower than where I would like it to be on an absolute level
- Fall out from the wider stock market would likely see investors pull out into less risky asset classes. It would be difficult to defend a position in crypto.
- Mac-d Looks toppy
Hope this was useful.
best
filbfilb
We are currently range bound in a hold-your-position or no trade zone. (Yellow Triangle)
This will play out by the end of the weekend as it represents the end of the range.
Watch for Fake outs.
Bulls
- Reasonable support established in the $7600-8000 range off the back of a c.60% up move from the 6k lows
- Interest appears to be returning and the FUD articles are fading
- Arguable Inverted Head and Shoulders bottom has formed
- Reasonable prior week candle close (good but could have been better)
- Measure move Targets for this would be 11k + where additional resistance is found but this requires a break of the horizontal and - very strong diag resistance
- Dumps have been met by large market buy orders and buy support below is strong
- RSI is trending up
Bears
- Very strong levels of Horizontal resistance at $9-10k alongside multi week horizontal resistance.
- A lot of long positions were opened to support the dip to 6k with profit taking on the short positions; price has recovered off the back of this but has not been met by the bears, meaning that they have reserves in the tank to re enter, there is no short squeeze fuel and the bulls buying interest is fading.
- Generally the bid support on the exchanges is c.20% lower than where I would like it to be on an absolute level
- Fall out from the wider stock market would likely see investors pull out into less risky asset classes. It would be difficult to defend a position in crypto.
- Mac-d Looks toppy
Hope this was useful.
best
filbfilb
הערה
Showing more of the range here - is interesting that the H&S target coincides with the second diagonal resistance.הערה
So we broke the diagonal support which is very encouraging.We now need to see if the diag breakout can be sustained as any upward movement is met by immediate resistance.
I am still holding a small long position which i will sell into the horizontal resistance.
any breaks to the upside beyond 9500 i will re enter the market. any dtop to support and i will re enter awell.
All the other major coins effectively have similar charts and im playing them all the same.
Remaining cautiously bullish till resistance but suspect we may drif sideways throguh Friday and have an attempt at 10k on the wekeend.
הערה
so we broke out! intermediate target is throguh the cloud to 10250.הערה
running out of steam הערה
10250הערה
Can we rally this weekend to the H&S target or will we retest prior resistance?Let me know your thoughts.
הערה
weekly looks good.. morning star would be be an epic end to the week 
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