BTC - "500% RETURN - No Brainer" THIS WAS YOUR SIGN!!!
מעודכן
Nothing like the waking up to a complete market selloff. This is where disciplined investors/traders separate themselves from the emotional ones. Many are realizing this morning that their magic portfolios are nothing more than fairy dust. I have mentioned in just about ever article about the post after post after post of 400% 1010%+ returns, and that this was your sign that market sentiment was way too high! This is where many new traders and investors get caught up in the FOMO and tunnel themselves into a 30%+ hole.
Anyways I did not catch the initial selloff marked in orange. I will not go into why this would have been my exit point as I missed it, but more importantly what I do when I miss it. This is why we prepare for these moments by charting. Sometimes the most ridiculous levels happen. When I hear comments like "it will never go under $1100 or $1000 again", I can tell you with almost 90% surety these are the ones panicking this morning. Even as bullish as I was on BTC' I still had labeled on my chart pullback areas. These become critical during selloffs as you already have set your mind on where to look for reversals. So in lieu of having a blank chart up on the screen with the last 4 bars red and wondering what to do, we have a chart on the screen of where there is likely to be a reversal and are planning our next move!
#1 I already had labeled on the chart the next fibb levels lower. (every equity I own has a chart with these levels)
#2 Generally we get early buyers come in at these levels along with scalp traders (just like I did last night) But I missed the chance this morning.
#3 I take the time to see how the market reacts at these levels before I act!
#4 I'm watching the market here to see if I need to exit or this is just noise. After all Bitcoin is king and was down the least of my coins this morning. This is a sign that the market STILL favors bitcoin!
#5 I'm drinking a cup of coffee looking for buying opportunities. Long term we are still in a bull market! I am looking for over sold coins that I can scalp up and I was able to cover my sells on ETH' and NEO' at a lower price today! I was beginning to think that would not happen! Good morning America!
Bottom line I am still in my trade, I am more concerned about looking for bargains then exiting here. But it is up on my screen and the 1 hour chart does not look that bad. At least in comparison to the majority of the charts this morning. Buyers have quickly bought the last two red bars as evident from the wicks. The first green bar has no lower wick which implies to me buyers are continuing to step into the market continuing from the previous bar. We have a second green bar as well but it has not closed yet so I am monitoring it. Either way there are wicks to the upside which is a sign of people exiting or scalpers covering. Keep in mind bots are trading here to. So I'm just being patient.
In closing, sitting on cash is probably the greatest thing we have going for us right now, regardless if we lose on this trade or not, 25% of my portfolio did not go down at all.
Anyways I did not catch the initial selloff marked in orange. I will not go into why this would have been my exit point as I missed it, but more importantly what I do when I miss it. This is why we prepare for these moments by charting. Sometimes the most ridiculous levels happen. When I hear comments like "it will never go under $1100 or $1000 again", I can tell you with almost 90% surety these are the ones panicking this morning. Even as bullish as I was on BTC' I still had labeled on my chart pullback areas. These become critical during selloffs as you already have set your mind on where to look for reversals. So in lieu of having a blank chart up on the screen with the last 4 bars red and wondering what to do, we have a chart on the screen of where there is likely to be a reversal and are planning our next move!
#1 I already had labeled on the chart the next fibb levels lower. (every equity I own has a chart with these levels)
#2 Generally we get early buyers come in at these levels along with scalp traders (just like I did last night) But I missed the chance this morning.
#3 I take the time to see how the market reacts at these levels before I act!
#4 I'm watching the market here to see if I need to exit or this is just noise. After all Bitcoin is king and was down the least of my coins this morning. This is a sign that the market STILL favors bitcoin!
#5 I'm drinking a cup of coffee looking for buying opportunities. Long term we are still in a bull market! I am looking for over sold coins that I can scalp up and I was able to cover my sells on ETH' and NEO' at a lower price today! I was beginning to think that would not happen! Good morning America!
Bottom line I am still in my trade, I am more concerned about looking for bargains then exiting here. But it is up on my screen and the 1 hour chart does not look that bad. At least in comparison to the majority of the charts this morning. Buyers have quickly bought the last two red bars as evident from the wicks. The first green bar has no lower wick which implies to me buyers are continuing to step into the market continuing from the previous bar. We have a second green bar as well but it has not closed yet so I am monitoring it. Either way there are wicks to the upside which is a sign of people exiting or scalpers covering. Keep in mind bots are trading here to. So I'm just being patient.
In closing, sitting on cash is probably the greatest thing we have going for us right now, regardless if we lose on this trade or not, 25% of my portfolio did not go down at all.
הערה
I also want to caution new players here. Regardless if the sun is shining, you do not take a boat out in rough waters. We need to be patient and other than covering my shavings off my core coins, I am being patient here to see what the market does. This was market wide, so bitcoin being down should not be a surprise. No different if the tech sector sells off and google or amazon is down. Those are the coins I'm looking for. They will be the first to recover!הערה
One more note: The Jan BTC futures contracts expire tomorrow. We mentioned when they first came out you could buy the underlying asset and sell the contract for a guaranteed 10-15%. So is it coincidence that the market sold off prior to this date, or not? That we will never know but what we can do is market it on the calendar for next month!!!!!הערה
Sentiment is the greatest indicator of a reversal in the market. Ohh the crap I took when I posted the ETH pullback to $820-$915 "you delirious it will never go below $1100 again" or NEO back to $128-$143, or LTC back to $160-$185 (my $160 order was filled ;) Yeah baby!) OR the fact we have had the same levels on BTC since Dec 20th when we exited our trades and went to 70% core and 30% cash. So are we surprised that BTC is here? not really! Did we expect it to go up to 17k? sure but this was a continuation trade since Dec 9th. We are well into this trade for cheaper than the market is now, which is one reason I did not sell. But what is the other? #1 Market sentiment - Everyone is posting $5000 -$8000 BTC charts
#2 Troll Sentiment - They are out in full now proclaiming how they called this all along
#3 "TA" experts having 4-5 indicators on their chart not even knowing what they mean. So here is one that says it all and why I believe we are close too, or the bottom is already in!
הערה
Now there is something even more important about the RSI which probably few know about. I am not posting it here but will provide some insight in the future. I want to provide this to all the followers that have followed for some time, but for sure do not want to give this to the trolls. Next they will be self proclaimed RSI experts!הערה
I think many misunderstood the "500% Return - No Brainer" comment in the title. This was not intended that bitcoin was going up 500%, it was a poke at those that were posting 300-400-1200% returns on crap coins. Also reading many Troll comments its obvious they have not been following since Dec 20th when we called the correction and I specifically stated that trading corrections is risky. I never claimed the correction was over period! But there are bull runs in bear markets and these are tradeable but risky trades. I understood this going into the last trade, and seeing where the RSI was on the daily and that it bounced off the 40 I was willing to take that risk.
הערה
One more thing before I finish for the day! I see a lot of EW counts that show us going to 9k. They look pretty, but pretty is not always right! Now I'm not saying this is THE count, but more to show that you MUST do your own homework! Why do I like this count better? Because it is almost identical to the Wave B count! not as steep but 3 and 5 were very close forming almost a double bottom relative to the price. So just because you see a count doesn't mean its the only count! 535 correction yes, but seeing wave 2 was horizontal and choppy it would be safe to say wave 4 would be steep and quick. הערה
wave W count my bad and unfortunately I can not edit!הערה
I will update tonight just came back from the North American Bitcoin Conference. Some really good insight and new ideas.
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