[Watch it] A word of caution: couple tricky months ahead.

Bitcoin failed the march bounce. Now moving sideways within the lower part of its (blue) ascending channel.

This is a tricky and undecisive area.

Bears stay in control unless 43k is recovered and MA20W and MA50W can be taken out (see the red rectangle).
The latter option would decidedly change the odds in favor of bulls, but let's face the actual scenario.

Many indicators hint a decent probability of a further move down, whose strength has to be carefully evaluated.
Hash Ribbons, for instance, is at risk of stalling:

So let's do some preliminary risk shaping considerations.
Bulls cannot afford losing much ground from here: a move down into the 37,5-36,5k area, if confirmed on W close, would raise some red flags.
It would likely ignite intra-week volatility and may prelude to a further test of MA100W and lower bound of the (blue) channel (35-36k - see the blue rectangle).

If so the latter would act a last-stand, decisive area: unless a decisive bounce may be achieved (at worst) from there leveraging a divergence on RSI, a capitulation down to the high 20k range (flashcrash) may loom.
With possible later formation of a diamond or a confirmation of the (purple) falling wedge - it's soon to say.

Hence i'd closely watch upcoming price action and i would prepare and take proper measures, in case of further weakness.

All the above be re-evaluated after hit of either support (blue rectange) or resistance (red rectangle) area.

הערה:

Down as expected.
38,2k low still on the safe side.
Diamond possibly in formation:

הערה:

37,7k. Heating up.

I'd say the diamond option may hold up to support (around 37k).
Any lower it may start breaking things.

Pretty interesting.

הערה:

הערה:

SAR did hold.

הערה:

Hash ribbons rising.

WATCH that diamond.

הערה:

Seemingly ready for a bounce.

הערה:

Pretty close to Long term CMF support:

We may assist to a third test in 7 years.

הערה:

Let's see whether it's a diamond.

MInd the falling wedge as well.

הערה:

If those patterns hold we may get a pretty strong bounce.
If they fail back to the original plan (checking 37,5-36,5k).

עסקה פעילה:

Long a lot at 38532 $.
Stop placed, autopilot on.

Let's see.

הערה:

Third test inbound. Brace.

הערה:

Dominance at resistance again.

I'd say this time it may go through.
Anyway, it would mean high volatility, especially on alts.

הערה:

Well, let's see:

הערה:

Now bulls should try to achieve this:

In order to avoid or at least pospone a capitulation.
Hence watch 37k, as any furter weakness would be dangerous.

הערה:

Well the diamond option is likely gone.
Yet the falling wedge still holds.

הערה:

Meanwhile test of dominance still ongoing:

עסקה סגורה: הגיע לסטופ:

Just got back, only to see price already within the blue zone.

Stop gone already.
Watching out for possible opportinities close to support.

הערה:

Pretty similar:

Not sure it would be as severe though.

הערה:

Anyway, it's a good opportunity to buy some more coins.
Provided caution is used.

I'd say look at MA20/W along next weeks:

It may require some time, but once it flattens the worst will be likely behind.
Obviously, in order to flatten, price needs to pierce it up.

So watch it.

הערה:

Meanwhile on CMF/W ...

Support still not broken for now.

הערה:

Here we go, test of main support.

הערה:

Broken support, broken channel, broken inner wedge.

Very ugly, capitulation ongoing.
Major wedge still holds.

הערה:

MF is under historical support, which is a 2 faced issue:

1) it means market is very weak (as usual in capitulation)
2) it means market is goin pretty unbalanced on the sell side. Which can't last for long.

Hence i started already accumulating come coins on this weakess, by letting price fill my bids.

הערה:

Current picture:

:|

הערה:

Not even reached mid may and sub 30k already reached tonight.
Hence OP already found confirmation, sadly.

Looking forward to the bounce, but expecting further choppy action in the meantime.

עסקה סגורה: היעד הושג:

So here we are, less than 3 weeks later, with a capitulation unfolding:

Price already in the high 20s and testing the lower limit of the wedge painted in the opening post.

What's surprising is nothing surprising happed along the way.

No serious bounces and no hiccups.
That's a bit concerning given so relatively close MA200/W floor is today.

Anyway, this analysis reached its target already.
Time for some interim action (looking for a bounce, in this case) before moving onto next chapter.

עסקה סגורה: היעד הושג:

So here we are, less than 3 weeks later, with a capitulation unfolding:

Price already in the high 20s and now testing the lower limit of the wedge painted in the opening post. Tricky action.

What's surprising is nothing surprising happened along the way down.
No serious bounces, no hiccups.
That's a bit concerning given so close MA200/W is today.

Anyway, this analysis reached its target already.
Time for some interim action (looking for a bounce, in this case) before moving onto next chapter.

הערה:

Next chapter: