Bitcoin weekend update
I wrote this one 6 hours ago, but waited to see things play out a bit first.
We saw a strange move yesterday. Where it looked like the green version of my previous analysis would play out. The price was finding support in what seemed to be a bear flag at first. Then a big rally again out of nowhere taking it back to slightly above the previous high even. I posted an update in my free channels a few hours before the drop yesterday:
Starting to look more like profit taking at these highs now. So chances increase a bit that we might see a small drop at least this weekend. Alts getting hits again which is never good. I have no real reason yet to change my bullish outlook for the coming weeks yet, but short term, i would play it more careful. If 5680ish breaks, we are likely to test the low of the range again, around 5600.
It's weekend so random moves can happen, but volume is still high for a weekend move though. Usually want to see volume drop during consolidation (bull flag), that is not really happening yet, therefore can be a first sign of some distribution (hence the profit taking)
Short term, very tough to say. But this bounce up yesterday does show there is still potential on the upside for the coming week or 2. Maybe better said, it shows the intentions of the market is probably still aimed to the upside.
Problem is, we don't have a nice bull flag to go on. There is what seems to be a broadening triangle though, which looks to be real. It could just go to the bottom of it again, but judging on the bounce yesterday, it looks like the market doesn't want to drop back to the low of that pattern. A broadening triangle like this is very difficult to judge.
Only thing to go on for now is that channel on the right. Seems to be legit and we have had a several bounces already. Where it looks like it might drop but then each time it is getting pushed back up again. Which could indicate that we have a solid support zone here. Since we are still at the highs, it is not likely to assume that it will simply just break the resistance today and continue to rally. I would rather see it move above that support for maybe another day even before a real move happens.
Think that if the 5650ish breaks, we could see another drop to the 5500 or the 5400 support even (green version of the previous analysis). I would rather see this happen and bounce up from there again, but this market usually doesn't do what is best. Because those prices would be more attractive to try a swing long than current prices.
Now the resistance around 5800/6000 is not an ordinary one. So i don't think a simply short squeeze within a few seconds will break it. Think we might see some rejections while it happens. So in other words, more likely to see a normal rally instead of a short squeeze. Which is always better by the way.
Now if we see something like the blue line happen the coming 12/24 hours, than a move up will become very likely. In the meantime, we should keep an eye out for 5660/30 to see if that one holds the coming day.
Also when scrolling through the alts, most are at short term support levels now. So probably if Bitcoin's breaks the 5650ish support, we will probably see those make another big drop again.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis: Make sure you are aware of my thoughts of the previous few analysis as well.
We saw a strange move yesterday. Where it looked like the green version of my previous analysis would play out. The price was finding support in what seemed to be a bear flag at first. Then a big rally again out of nowhere taking it back to slightly above the previous high even. I posted an update in my free channels a few hours before the drop yesterday:
Starting to look more like profit taking at these highs now. So chances increase a bit that we might see a small drop at least this weekend. Alts getting hits again which is never good. I have no real reason yet to change my bullish outlook for the coming weeks yet, but short term, i would play it more careful. If 5680ish breaks, we are likely to test the low of the range again, around 5600.
It's weekend so random moves can happen, but volume is still high for a weekend move though. Usually want to see volume drop during consolidation (bull flag), that is not really happening yet, therefore can be a first sign of some distribution (hence the profit taking)
Short term, very tough to say. But this bounce up yesterday does show there is still potential on the upside for the coming week or 2. Maybe better said, it shows the intentions of the market is probably still aimed to the upside.
Problem is, we don't have a nice bull flag to go on. There is what seems to be a broadening triangle though, which looks to be real. It could just go to the bottom of it again, but judging on the bounce yesterday, it looks like the market doesn't want to drop back to the low of that pattern. A broadening triangle like this is very difficult to judge.
Only thing to go on for now is that channel on the right. Seems to be legit and we have had a several bounces already. Where it looks like it might drop but then each time it is getting pushed back up again. Which could indicate that we have a solid support zone here. Since we are still at the highs, it is not likely to assume that it will simply just break the resistance today and continue to rally. I would rather see it move above that support for maybe another day even before a real move happens.
Think that if the 5650ish breaks, we could see another drop to the 5500 or the 5400 support even (green version of the previous analysis). I would rather see this happen and bounce up from there again, but this market usually doesn't do what is best. Because those prices would be more attractive to try a swing long than current prices.
Now the resistance around 5800/6000 is not an ordinary one. So i don't think a simply short squeeze within a few seconds will break it. Think we might see some rejections while it happens. So in other words, more likely to see a normal rally instead of a short squeeze. Which is always better by the way.
Now if we see something like the blue line happen the coming 12/24 hours, than a move up will become very likely. In the meantime, we should keep an eye out for 5660/30 to see if that one holds the coming day.
Also when scrolling through the alts, most are at short term support levels now. So probably if Bitcoin's breaks the 5650ish support, we will probably see those make another big drop again.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis: Make sure you are aware of my thoughts of the previous few analysis as well.
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