Bitcoin Ready to let Go of Some Steam
מעודכן
Going to keep this one short. 3 days ago i posted this update when BTC was at 72.800:
Think btc and eth (assuming those lease the market), are getting a bit exhausted. So think a correction could happen any moment. But as mentioned several times already, think its just a correction, so after that is done, could be a few days to a few weeks, think the market will go for new highs again.
So make your own decision on what you do, i already said what i did. I have just sold a decent % of all my holdings. The prices are just so good already IMO, and it's too easy to let greed take over, even for an experienced person like i am :).
Now i am thinking, that if BTC can break the 68/69k zone, it could go towards the 70/71.5K. In theory bit higher as well, just should not break the previous ATH. If so, i think that we are in an ABC correction. Meaning if we go towards that 71k zone, that we could see another even bigger drop. In theory could go towards just 63K but 55K is also possible. For now, i think the market is pretty strong, so would think 60/63K at the most. However, unless there is a lot of leveraged longs in the market, that bigger shake out towards 55k wouldnt be that difficult.
When this ABC is finished, as i have been saying past weeks (that when a correction would come), i am still expecting at least 1 more wave up for new ATH's for BTC. Similar view for the stock market. I just can't predict upfront if that would be just a matter of a week or that it can take a few months even. Best guess, think 2 months at least of bullishness. But could be much less but also much more. Still a lot of uncertainties especially about FED rates and inflation etc. Which i believe is still the key thing for the stock market and therefore also for BTC/Crypto.
Good luck all, make your plan upfront because if you do it in the heat of the moment, i can guarantee you that you will F it up big time. Maybe not that week, you will mess up a few months later or a year later. Think many of you already did that once or probably even twice already in 2018/9 and 2021/22.
Think btc and eth (assuming those lease the market), are getting a bit exhausted. So think a correction could happen any moment. But as mentioned several times already, think its just a correction, so after that is done, could be a few days to a few weeks, think the market will go for new highs again.
So make your own decision on what you do, i already said what i did. I have just sold a decent % of all my holdings. The prices are just so good already IMO, and it's too easy to let greed take over, even for an experienced person like i am :).
Now i am thinking, that if BTC can break the 68/69k zone, it could go towards the 70/71.5K. In theory bit higher as well, just should not break the previous ATH. If so, i think that we are in an ABC correction. Meaning if we go towards that 71k zone, that we could see another even bigger drop. In theory could go towards just 63K but 55K is also possible. For now, i think the market is pretty strong, so would think 60/63K at the most. However, unless there is a lot of leveraged longs in the market, that bigger shake out towards 55k wouldnt be that difficult.
When this ABC is finished, as i have been saying past weeks (that when a correction would come), i am still expecting at least 1 more wave up for new ATH's for BTC. Similar view for the stock market. I just can't predict upfront if that would be just a matter of a week or that it can take a few months even. Best guess, think 2 months at least of bullishness. But could be much less but also much more. Still a lot of uncertainties especially about FED rates and inflation etc. Which i believe is still the key thing for the stock market and therefore also for BTC/Crypto.
Good luck all, make your plan upfront because if you do it in the heat of the moment, i can guarantee you that you will F it up big time. Maybe not that week, you will mess up a few months later or a year later. Think many of you already did that once or probably even twice already in 2018/9 and 2021/22.
הערה
Unfortunately, BTC wasnt able to break that 68.5/69K zone. For a while it looked as if it would be a matter of time, but it didnt. Anyway, think there is a chance, that short term this correction is done for now. The problem though is (not a big problem), i am not sure if we already finished the ABC or that we have only finished leg A. Meaning do we go up to 70kish and then make another big drop or that we simply continue for a new ATH.
Either way, think a low is closing in here. Not sure thing though!!
One thing that makes it more complicated, is the US stock market. As i updated think a week or 2 ago, think a temp high is being set there. If so, and it starts dropping, it could drag BTC down with it. But past months there were a few times BTC stood its ground and even moved opposite of equities. So hoping here as well.
הערה
Think for both ETH and BTC, need a 4h close above it to feel better about a move up. Until then, it remains tricky.הערה
Yesterday i posted this update:" Another attempt, good 4h close candle, now next one must be good/decent as well. Yesterdays, they (you know I always live to say they 😆), ruined that 4h close just minutes before it closed!
Think a 4h close now above 64.5k is a decent sign already "
Yesterday BTC formed a very nice bullish wedge at the low.
Now we can see that ETH is still fighting with that box, to close a 4h candle above it. Think if that happens, we should see some more upside there as well.
I will try to write a new analysis soon, but for now, the first push up was pretty strong. So i am tending towards the ABC already being over, meaning we might already be in the stage to go towards a new ATH again coming week or so. But too soon to say.
הערה
Yesterday i posted this update:"Not really happy of the consolidation of the past half day or so. Touch of 68.5/69k would be very good. If not, we could see a drop again. My best guess is towards like 63/64. If so, then the ABC becomes more likely again."
It dropped since and so far bounced up decently again. But ETH has been weak past week or so. I actually though ETH would be outperforming BTC coming period, but it has been the opposite. Also, from that update i did a few days ago, you can see, ETH has not been able to do a 4H close above that box. Think we need to wait for that.
הערה
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