Economic Crisis, Opinion
מעודכן
The crisis economic current no to begun from recently, empezo does a lot. Since a lot of factors did a big inflaccion along the time. But it exists a boom that increase the growth of this, being an example "The current pandemia that follow having" among others factors to resaltar, see a bit the current panorama of all the economia, based in different paises. And data resaltantes.
Some people think that will not have a recesion economica worse to which had to the 2008, since we are "Better ready", really do not consider that have a crisis economica so criticise, but doubt that we are prepared by what goes to come.
Aqui Left you data and councils that helped you to protect your savings and investments.
First need to know that it is Money FIAT.
"The money does not exist", the existent is a representation of the mind of the money. Nonetheless we do not go so far, since in truth the money if it exists physically, at least a section to way of notes and coins, asi like another in shape virtual part or electronic. However in which if it is that his cost is not intrinsic, this wants to say that for a stray person in an empty island, simply does not serve.
The money then is a convention, something to this that the humans have given him cost by reciprocal consensus, was gold, silver and beautiful metals that cost by his characteristics of durability and shortage, was Money fiat that voucher by decree or fiat currency that voucher as this with base in a debt. Even it has invented money that voucher as his virtual construction is little in if same: the Bitcoin .
The term FIAT is of Latin origin and means to the letter "that asi was". Of this form put that the money fiat is that whose cost this backed by the populational confidence that uses it and exists by the authority of the power that issues it.
Having this present speak of the power of the governments to print what money asi wish...
A Brief History of the Money
The money like such is born by the need to find a half that accelerated the process of trueque. Of this form some human teams arrived to the consensus to use some palpable articles that represented a clear-cut cost. They used the cacao, the dust of gold, the jade, marine shells and other products. (To said products appoints them "Money Mercancia"). Nonetheless with the step him them centuries, only 2 tangible articles, the silver however primordialmente the gold, fulfilled with the paramount functionalities that would have to realise the money: be measured of cost, instrument of trueque and reservation of wealth, characteristics that derive of the intrinsic cost of his shortage, consistency, quality and resistance to the corrosion. Afterwards, to evade the need that in each transaction had to measure the proportion of beautiful metal that received , the states began to amonedar these metals of such form that certified the purity and weight of the coin. Coin coins of gold and silver was continuously an act of autonomy. This money even exists, nonetheless has fallen into disuse by the obstacles that the governments have predetermined to his use. Exemplifying, in Mexico only 2 banks sell and buy coins of gold and silver, and realise it in a schedule restricted and in portions limited, of such form that realise difficult the independent trueque of the metals. Of this form inhibits his use like coin of current of change.
Until 1694, the alone planet knew the money to way of beautiful metals. However from previously another type of money venia gestando. Again, it has been product of the need of the business. Chord went opening new and every time but far routes to negotiate, has been less practise and sure the move physically the values for mercar and sell. Of this form arose places and individuals (banks and bankers) that protected the values, to measure that the trader travelled and that issued monetary receipts. Said were those that delivered in the operations of purchase- commercialisation. Once accepted the receipt, this deposited in the bank of the seller, the banker by his side, to a balance with the banker of the urbe of the customer and compensated the debitos and the credits. The gold and the silver change of owner, without modifying of physical place.
However like such the fiat currency appeared in 1694, once that the Bank of England obtained the right to produce the coins of England in the way of money paper. The money paper has been proclaimed so good like coins of gold or silver due to the fact that it was backed by gold and real silver. Said new monetary receipts promised the delivery of the coin of gold or of silver, to the fork. They generated a legal right on spoken gold and silver. It called him fiat currency by the Latin root of the word, "fido", that means "trust". The fork of the note "will pay" trusted that the emisor of the will pay would deliver gold or silver, against presentation of the note. This finish for the particular in EU in 1933, from the explosion of the big depression, once that the regimen confiscate all the gold circulante and returned crime possess it. Nonetheless the end of the fiat currency occurred on 15 August 1971, once that the regimen of the territory but powerful of all the world, took the decision of not fulfilling a promise that had realised to the rest of the countries.
In 1944 the second world-wide war was almost won for the partners. In Bretton Woods, (New Hampshire), lead them of all the world carried out the Monetary and Financial Conference of the UN. There the paramount winner of the war (because it was not touched by this in his continental territory), USES them of America, obtained the privilege that his serious coin used like coin of world-wide change. In return it promised to the rest of the countries, conserve the cost of the gold in 35,00 dollars by ounce and purchased the commitment to modify dollars by gold to that cost without limitations neither restrictions. When following being fixed the cost of the dollar, the others territories would have to fix the cost of his coins with interaction to that, and to be paramount, take part in the markets cambiarios with the aim to conserve the exchange rates in a band of fluctuation of 1%. With this established the norms for the commercial and financial collaborations postwar. Less than 30 years later, EU would break flagrantemente his promise. Once that Nixon, in 1971 decreed that it would not return to modify dollars by gold. In the actuality does not exist fiat currency in the planet, any note or coin represents any exigible right by his owner, headed by the one who issues the note. That day basically disappeared the money with base in something tangible, due to the fact that I leave to be common coin of change and the money circulante leave to have money mercancia (gold and silver) like backrest.
The money fiat arose of the inviabilidad governmental of United States to back in gold the dolares that was issuing in the decade of the 60 and 70. It has been in good measure another disastrous effect but of the war of Vietnam. As it explains the Wikipedia: In 1971 the territory had a commercial deficit by first occasion during the 20th century. The nations of Europe began to modify the dollars sobrevalorados by German frames and by gold. Of this form, France and Great Britain sued to USA the conversion of his excedentes of dollars in gold. Therefore, the reservations of Fort Knox, where is deposited the American gold, contracted . Like reply, the mandator Richard Nixon prevented the conversions of the dollar and devaluated it (to do that the American exports were cheaper and relieve the commercial disequilibrium). Likewise, Nixon imposed a temporary tariff of 10% and had triumph in forcing to said territories to revalorizar his coin, however no in producing a new system of types cambiarios stable. By the way, the cost of the coins initiated to fluctuate.
As already it mentioned , the term "fiat" means do, in Latin. I reiterate, if it is money that only exists by governmental decree. It does not possess but backrest that the populational confidence that uses it, does not promise delivery of something of cost to his owner; it exists and voucher by the strength of the state that orders that decree. In the actuality, only exists money fiat in the planet. This money costs in the business since in the instant of his construction substituted to another money that yes possessed cost (real money) or promised cost (fiat currency). The two types of money transmitted part of his cost to the money fiat and the universal business accepted it in the commercial exchanges.
Besides, the oil, the paramount commoditie of the 20th century, initiated to exchange by dollars because of the agreements between the dynasty Saud and the regimen of U.S.. The other of commodities followed this footpath by the push of the fortress of the dollar until remaining nominated in said notes the other of the commercial transactions of all the world.
A custody of the system fiat is that the money really would not have to cost by the commoditie that back it. In other terms does not represent an object little, that has cost cuasi intrinseco. But well it represents a the work of the society to generate goods or loan services. In this linea of thought once that a person this paying $150 weights by a cymbal in a restaurant, well podria say that this exchanging an hour of his history (worked realising stoves for example) by the food and the era of the cook, mesero, etcetera
Until aqui all well. However the problem begins once that the escases of that money fiat this controlled by a group to be able to, potentially discretionary. The best example is the function of the central banks of all the world (with the FED in command) to print so much money as it was paramount to cover his obligations of payment, however without need to increase the real wealth of the country, trastocandose the equivalence money fiat = time worked in producing goods and services. The result is a viable insidious transfer and subtle, of the wealth of the populational thickness to the area or place where the state needs it. This achieves it by means of the one of the inflation, subject on which will go back on this phenomenon but advance.
In the period of the information, the money fiat besides has suffered another change. It has left to be something tangible. Included by the moment is not his greater part, not even a part of paper. Now it is only an initiative. An initiative that plasma to way of "banking tanks" that only there is in the collective mind of the society and in the pcs of the banks. Now the central banks, to produce but money out of nowhere, not even have to throw to walk the press to print notes. Simply "they inject" to the economy the initiative that there is but money, authorising to the banks to loan but without bigger backrest. In EU the system of reservation fraccional does magic on magic, appearing money to loan, tecleando some norms in a computer. Some economists have designated imaginary money to this class of coin fiat.
Types of Money in the History:
Money Commodity: With base in an object fisico to the that attributes him cost intrinseco by his escases consistency, quality and resistance to the corrosion.
Fiat currency: This that this backed by by gold and silver or another real product.
Money Fiat: This existent and voucher by the strength of the state that issues it.
Imaginary money: Money Fiat however intangible.
The problems mentioned with the money fiat and his by-product the imaginary money, especially the ease with that can manipulate his shortage, have caused that some analysts like Hugo Saltworks Price express his doubts and criticise on the banking system fiat. Saltworks Price in an interview to the magazine "Forbes" titled "Everything in our new world is a lie." It explains his vision of which this system involves. Segun Saltworks Price live in a "world of Dreams, with base in fictitious money that is being building without any limit. It look the fantastic plans of Japan to generate vast, astronomical sums of money fíat happens to go out of the economic fear. We possess that have imagination, yes, however anchored in the truth, no in fantastic dreams. We are dreaming to a quite real Hell, thanks to the imaginary money, that is which see us forced to use ?All the money in the banks is alone imaginary money." (Textual appointment. I articulate complete aqui )
The tax but silent: The inflation.
The term inflation install in the imaginary Mexican community in the decade of the 80s. In said infausta stage were witnesses of the disappearance of the power of purchase of the weights and of the apparition of diverse zeros in the in shape uncontrolled notes. Nonetheless in neither a form is a new evil. By the way in the Germany from among wars has been this phenomenon one of the feeders of the Nazi madness.
In any place have observed an explanation but didactic and simplified of how gives this phenomenon, that in the articulate Inflation, oil and money in time of crisis of March of the 2006 published by Marcos Martínez
"The monetary mass, would have to save a narrow interaction with the goods that have to exchange. In a start, would have to give a precarious balance in consequence neither was missing neither on money. This is the realised paramount that gives utility to the coin and does him be which is, a just equivalent of trueque. However the problems appear once that the proportion of coin increases to bigger rapidity that the production of goods that change . In other terms something that has sucedido once that the regimen for the moment in each historical instant has considered that it could manipulate the money creating it out of nowhere, without backrest in a growth parejo of material wealth "
Of this form, in the universal crisis of 2008, the monetary mass of EU duplicate in an alone year, to save the tambaleante financial system. This expansionary monetary policy has like end arouse the magnitude of the monetary offer of a territory, so that that the regimen increase the public expense and that incentive the reflation of the expense of the organisations and families. These ideas were posited by the economist John Maynard Keynes along the decade of 1930. And it was the way to answer to the crises economicas in distinct situations.
Financial crisis in 2008.
Financial crisis of 2007-08, besides called crisis of mortgages of high danger, severe contraction of the liquidity in the global financial markets that derived in USES them like consequence of the collapse of the real-estate market of United States. It intimidated with deleting the universal financial system; it caused the failure (or almost breaks) of diverse notable commercial banks and of investment, lenders hipotecarios, companies of insurances and associations of saving and loan; and it precipitated the Big Recession (2007-2009), the worst economic recession from the Great Depression (1929-c. 1939).
Reasons of the crisis
Although the precise reasons of the financial crisis are a subject of dispute between the economists, exists a general pact on the components that influenced (the professionals do not remain of consensus on his relative transcendence).
First, the Federal Reservation (Fed), the central bank of USE, having anticipated a slight recession that began in 2001, diminished the tax of federal bottoms (the tax of interest that the banks earn between yes by loans to a day of federal bottoms, or was, balances kept in a bank of the Federal Reservation) 11 times between May of 2000 and December of 2001, of 6.5 percent to 1.75 percent. Said significant decrease allowed to the banks lengthen credit to the consumption to a favourite tax lower (the tax of interest that the banks earn to his preferential "consumers" or of low danger, mainly 3 punto porcentuales by on top of the tax of federal bottoms) and encouraged them to loan included to consumers ?subprime? Or of high danger, although to taxes of interest higher (see loans subprime). The customers took advantage of the economic credit for mercar durable goods like appliances, cars and especially houses. The result has been the construction to finals of the years 90 of one ?Real-estate bubble? (A swift growth of the costs of the house to levels enough by on top of his important or intrinsic cost, promoted by an excessive speculation).
In second place, thanks to the changes in the banking laws that began in the decade of 1980, the banks could give to the consumers of high danger loans hipotecarios structured with global payments (payments unusually giant that win finally or near of the end of a lapse of loan) or taxes of adjustable interest. (Taxes that are statics in levels subjetivamente basses along an initial lapse and float, mainly with the tax of federal bottoms, since). To measure that the costs of the houses followed increasing, the borrowers of high danger could protect against the high payments hipotecarios refinanciando, asking loans against the increase of the cost of his houses or selling his houses with a gain and cancelling his mortgages. In case of incumplimiento, the banks could recobrar the property and sell it by more than the cost of the original loan. Therefore, the loans of high danger represented a yielding investment for quite a lot of banks. Of way, several banks commercialised aggressively loans of high danger to consumers with bad credit or few active, knowing that those borrowers could not credit the loans and, comunmente, deceiving them on the dangers related. Like consequence, the quantity of mortgages of high danger between all the loans hipotecarios increased of around a 2,5 percent to almost a 15 percent by year from finals of the years 90 until 2004-2007.
In third place, contributed to the increase of the loans of high danger the practice generalised of the titulización, by means of which the banks grouped hundreds or included an enormous quantity of mortgages of high danger and other ways of debt of consumption less riesgosas and sold them (or pieces of them) in the markets of capital like values (bonos) to other banks and investors, integrated bottoms of coverage and pension funds. The bonos that consist primordialmente in mortgages knew like values backed by mortgages, or MBS, that gave right to his consumers to a section of the payments of interests and paramount of the underlying loans. The commercialisation of mortgages of high danger like MBS considered a good form so that the banks increased his liquidity and diminished his exhibition to loans riesgosos, in what the purchase of MBS considered a good form so that the banks and the investors diversified his wallets and made money. While the costs of the houses continued his meteoric promotion to starts of the decade of 2000, the MBS did quite famous and his costs in the markets of capital increased because of which.
In fourth place, in 1999 revoked partially the Law Glass-Steagall of the period of the Depression (1933), which allowed to the banks, the organisations of values and the companies of insurances go in in the markets of the others and merge, which finished in the training of banks that were "quite enormous to break". ?(It is to mention, so enormous that his failure would loom with undermining all the financial system). Besides, in 2004 the Commission of Stock exchange and Values (SEC) weakened the requirement of net capital (the interaction between capital or active and debt or passive that the banks have to conserve like salvaguardia against the insolvency), which encouraged to the banks to invest even more money in MBS. Although the election of the SEC finished in monumental gains for the banks, besides exposed his wallets to a notable danger, since the cost of the active of the MBS was based implicitly in the continuation of the real-estate bubble.
In fifth and last place, the extensive lapse of security and world-wide economic increase that preceded velozmente to the crisis, that began to mediated and aims of the years 80 and from then knew like the "Big Moderation", had convinced to several banking executives, burócratas governmental and economists of EE. UU. Said extreme economic volatility was thing of the past. Said unsuspecting reaction, together with an ideological climate that emphasizes the desregulación and the function of the financial signatures to control to himself same, carried to almost all to desconocer or descartar clear signs of an imminent crisis and, in the situation of the bankers, to be followed loaning and borrowing unwisely. And practical of titulización.
Key events of the crisis
From 2004, a sequence of events presaged the following crisis, although poquísimos economists anticipated his big scale. Along a lapse of 2 years (June of 2004 to June of 2006) the Fed elevated the tax of federal bottoms of 1,25 to 5,25 percent, which inevitably finished in more incumplimientos by borrowers of high danger with mortgages of adjustable tax (ARM). In some form because of the increase of the taxes, however also because the market of the house had reached a point of saturation, the sales of houses and, therefore, the costs of the houses, began to fall in 2005. Several headlines of mortgages of high danger could not rescue borrowing, refinanciando or selling his houses, as there was less consumers and as several headlines of mortgages now had to more by his loans of which cost his houses (were ?Submerged?), an increasingly common phenomenon while it developed the crisis. While more and more borrowers subprime broke his payments and the costs of the houses continued falling, the MBS based ??In mortgages subprime lost cost, with grave sequelas for the wallets of several banks and organisations of investment. By the way, since the MBS caused in the real-estate market of EE. UU. Besides they had bought and sold in other territories (especially in the western European continent), varied of which had experienced his own real-estate bubbles, velozmente evidenció that the problem in USES them would have global problems. Repercussions, although the greater part of the professionals insisted in that the problems were not so grave as they seemed and that could contain the bad to the financial markets.
For 2007, the strong fall in the value of the MBS had caused important losses in a lot of banks, bottoms of coverage and lenders hipotecarios and forced even to some big and prominent companies to clear the bottoms of coverage that invested in MBS to request loans to the government. Look for fusions with companies healthier, or declare in failure. Even the companies that were not immediately loomed suffered losses of billions of dollars, since the MBS in which they had invested so much now were degraded by the agencies of qualification crediticia, turning into active ?Toxic? (Essentially without value). (Later, said agencies were accused of a severe conflict of interests, because his services were paid by the same banks whose titles of debt described. This financial relation initially created an incentive so that the agencies assigned qualifications engañosamente high to some MBS, according to the critics. .) In April of 2007, New Century Financial Corp., one of the lenders of high risk bigger, declared in failure and shortly after a lot of other lenders of high risk ceased his operations. Due to the fact that they no longer could fund loans of high risk by means of the sale of MBS, the banks left to award loans to customers of high risk, what caused that the sales of houses and the prices of the houses fell even more, what discouraged the purchase of houses even between the consumers with qualifications crediticias of first, depressing even more the sales and the prices. In August, the biggest bank of France, BNP Paribas, announced losses by billions of dollars and another big American company, American Home Mortgage Investment Corp., it declared in failure.
Partly because it was difficult to determine the scope of the debt of high risk in any MBS given (because the MBS generally sold in pieces, mixed with another debt and revenden in the markets of capitals like new values in a process that could continue indefinitely). Also it is difficult to evaluate the solidez of the banking wallets that contain MBS like active, even for the bank that possesses them. In consequence, the banks began to doubt of the solvencia of the other, what caused a congelamiento in the market of federal bottoms with consequences potentially disastrous. At the beginning of August, the Fed began to buy federal bottoms (in shape of governmental values) to provide to the banks more liquidity and like this reduce the tax of federal bottoms, that had surpassed in brief the aim of the Fed of the 5,25 percent. The central banks of other parts of the world, especially of the European Union, Australia, Canada and Japan, carried out operations of similar open market. However, the intervention of the Fed finally did not attain to stabilise the American financial market, what forced to the Fed to reduce directly the tax of federal bottoms thrice between September and December, to 4,25 percent. During the same period, the fifth greater lender hipotecario of the United Kingdom, Northern Rock, remained without active liquids and requested a loan to the Bank of England. The news of the rescue generated panic between the depositantes and resulted in the first run banking in the United Kingdom in 150 years. Northern Rock was nationalised by the British government in February of 2008.
The crisis in USES them deepened in the first month of the year of 2008 once that Bank of America agreed mercar Countrywide Financial, once the paramount lender hipotecario of the territory, by $ 4 billion in activities, a part of the previous cost of the company. In March, the prestigious signature of investment of Wall Street Bear Stearns, afterwards to having exhausted his active liquids, has been bought by JPMorgan Chase, that simultaneously had suffered an enormous quantity of million dollars in losses. Fearing that the failure of Bear Stearns loomed to other notable banks of which had borrowed, the Fed facilitated the commercialisation accepting 30.000 million dollars of the active of high danger of the organisation. To measure that so much, the Fed began another round of reductions in the tax of federal bottoms, of 4.25 percent to starts of January to alone 2 percent in April (the tax diminished again later in the year, to the 1 percent to finals of October and in effect to 0 percent in December). Although the cuts of types and other interventions along the first semester of the year have had any impact stabilizer, did not put end to the crisis; by the way, the worst was for arriving.
In the summer of 2008, Fannie Mae (the Society Hipotecaria National Federal) and Freddie Mac (the Corporation Hipotecaria Federal of Loans Hipotecarios), the corporations authorised by the regimen federal that dominated the market hipotecario secondary (the market of purchase and commercialisation of loans hipotecarios) were in serious problems. . The two institutions established to give liquidity to the lenders hipotecarios buying loans hipotecarios and keeping them or selling them ?With guarantee of payment of capital and interests? To other banks and investors. The two were authorised to sell loans hipotecarios like MBS. While the quantity of mortgages of high danger between all the loans hipotecarios initiated to increase to starts of the decade of 2000 (partly thanks to changes of politics designed to boost the property of houses between the minoritary groups and of low income), the wallets of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac went back more riesgosas, due to the fact that his passive could be monumental if an enormous group of headlines of mortgages did not pay his loans. When the MBS created from loans of high danger lost cost and at the end went back toxic, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac suffered big losses and confronted to the failure. To evade his collapse, the Department of the American Treasure nationalised the two corporations in September, replacing to his directors and engaging to cover his debts, that afterwards rose to some 1,6 trillion dollars.
To ends of that month, the bank of investments Lehman Brothers, of 168 years of antiquity, with 639.000 million dollars in active, manifested in failure more enormous in the American history. His failure designed a durable agitation in the financial markets of all the planet, weakened gravely the wallets of the banks that had loaned him money and boosted one totally new desconfianza between the banks, which carried them to minimise even more the loans interbancarios. Although Lehman had tried to find allies or consumers and expected the governmental support to facilitate a deal, the Department of the Treasure denied to take part, quoting "moral danger" (in this situation, the danger that save to Lehman would boost the imprudent behaviour of other banks in the future , that would suppose that they could depend on the governmental support like last resource). Nevertheless, only a day afterwards, the Fed agreed to loan to American International Group (AIG), the company of insurances more enormous of the territory, $ 85 billion to cover the losses in relation with the commercialisation of credit default swaps (CDS), a financial agreement that salvaguarda to the forks of diverse artefacts of debt, integrated MBS, in case of incumplimiento of the underlying loans. Unlike Lehman, AIG considered "quite enormous to break", as his collapse possibly would cause the failure of several banks that had bought CDS to guarantee his shopping of MBS, that now did not have cost. Less than 2 weeks afterwards of the disappearance of Lehman, Washington Mutual, the biggest bank of savings and loans of the territory, has been confiscated by the federal regulators and sold the next day to JPMorgan Chase.
In that instant, there was a general agreement between the economists and the burócratas of the Department of the Treasure that it was elementary a reply of the most forceful government to evade a collapse complete of the financial system and a durable evil to the American economy. Bush posed a legislation, the Law of Economic Stabilisation of Emergency (EESA), that would establish a Program of Relief of Active in Inconvenient (TARP), in advantage of the cual the Secretary of the Treasure, Henry Paulson, would be authorised to mercar to EE. Banks until $ 700 billion in MBS and other "active " in problems".
Nevertheless, fast evidenció that the purchase of MBS by governmental part would not provide sufficient liquidity to time to evade the failure of diverse banks more. Therefore, Paulson has been authorised to use until $ 250 billion in bottoms of the TARP for mercar preferential activities in financial institutions in problems, which has converted to the regimen federal in copropietario of enough more than 200 banks for end of year. The measures of the Fed included the purchase of bonos of the American Treasure to extensive term and MBS for loans hipotecarios of first quality, eases of loan for forks of values of high qualification and the purchase of MBS and other debts in power of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. For once that the programs of QE finished of official way in 2014, the Fed had injected enough more than 4 trillion dollars in the economy of United States. In spite of the warnings of some economists that the construction of trillion dollars in new money would drive to the hiperinflación, the tax of inflation of EE.
Now it exists a general pact in that the measures taken by the Fed to defend the American financial system and arouse the economic increase collaborated to warn a world-wide economic catastrophe. In it USES them, the recovery of the worst effects of the Big Recession besides observed favoured by the Law of Recovery and Reinversión American, a program of stimulus and relief of 787.000 million dollars posed by the management of Barack Obama and adopted by the Congress in February of 2009. In 2010, the Congress adopted the Law of Reform and Custody to the Consumer of Wall Street (the Law Dodd-Frank), that instituyó banking regulations to warn another financial crisis and designed an Office of Financial Custody to the Consumer, that commissioned to regulate, between other things, the loans hipotecarios of high danger. Nevertheless, afterwards of 2017, a lot of positions of the Law Dodd-Frank were revoked or neutralised truly by a Congress controlled by the republicans and the management of Donald J.
Effects and consequences of the crisis
In an analysis of 2018, the Bank of the Federal Reservation of San Francisco located that, 10 years later of the start of the financial crisis, the gross internal product of the territory was around a 7 percent lower of which had been if the crisis had not occurred, which represents a loss of $ 70,000 in income for life by each of United States. Around 7,5 million places of work lost between 2007 and 2009, which represents a duplication of the tax of unemployment, that situated in almost the 10 percent in 2010.
For the greater part of the Americans, the recovery of the financial crisis and the Big Recession has been excessively slow. Those that more had suffered: the million families that lost his domiciles, businesses or savings; the million workers that lost his places of work and confronted to the unemployment of extensive length; the million individuals that fell in the poverty continued struggling years later that it had been over the worst of the confusion. Besides, any CEO of United States or another high executive headed to the penitenciaría or included has been processed by penal charges, in marked contrast with previous financial scandals, like the crisis of savings and loans of the years 80 and the failure of Enron in 2001. Generally, the The key leaders of the financial organisations, as well as other quite rich Americans, had not lost so much in proportional terms like the members of the half classes and drop, and for 2010 had recovered to a large extent his losses, in what several usual Americans never did it.
Aiming to the economic elites and to a political and economic system that simulated elaborated to serve to the interests of the quite rich (the "1 percent", in comparison to the "99 percent"), the trip designed consciousness on the economic difference in USES them , a powerful subject that fast has turned into subject of the political rhetoric democrat so much to federal degree like state.
Upgrade 2021 - Summary
In full crisis of the Covid-19, owed to the designated "Big Confinement", follows implementing the same recipe: it USES aprobo a rescue by 2.2 trillion dolares, 10% of the Gross Internal Product of United States. Of course to way of money developed out of nowhere.
The hiperinflación, of the same form that saw it the Mexicans in the years ochentas, of the same form that lived it the Germans in the treintas or like the estan suffering the Venezuelans in the actuality is the result to abuse of this politica expansionary. It is maybe time to save the learnt in the hard lessons that said processes inflacionarios left or estan leaving to his inhabitants.
For offering an exemplification of a leccion learnt by the but ancient in Mexico. That do to conserve the equivalent to 4 months of wage of an employee comun, that won $2500 weights in 2005?. In said year the centenary of gold was around the 10 one thousand weights. In 2010 this in the order of the 20 one thousand weights. In 2020 in full crisis of the Covid-19 this in 56 one thousand weights. The one who save those 4 months of wage (10 one thousand weights) in the bank, win between 1 and 5 % annual of performance. The one who buy gold, win but of 500% in said 15 years. It is clear cual is the paper that even plays the appointed "money mercancia"
With all which is not clear is until where can arrive the monetary system fiat. What but bore the economia the inundacion of money indiscriminada. Ademas The defenders of this system sustain: Because it has not shot the hiperinflacion?... Quiza Is of such intensity the disaster that estariamos in deflacion without did not go by the tsunami of imaginary money.
COVID19-Reccesion
The collapse of the world-wide stock exchange initiated on 20 February 2020, although the economic points of the crisis began to materialise to finals of 2019. Thanks to the illness pandémica of coronavirus, the markets of all the world, the banks and the organisations confronted to crisis no seen from the Great Depression in 1929. [Appointment required]
Of the 24 to 28 February, the stock exchanges of all the planet registered his bigger falls in a week from the financial crisis of 2008, going in of this form in a correction. The global markets to starts of March went back radically volatile and produced monumental swings. On 9 March, the biggest part of the international markets informed of bass espasmos, primordialmente in reply to the illness pandémica of coronavirus and a war of costs of the oil between Russia and the nations of the OPEP directed by Saudi Arabia. This knew commonly like Black Monday I, and in that instant has been the worst fall from the Big Recession in 2008.
3 days from the Black Monday I, there was another fall, the Black Thursday, where the occupations of the European continent and North America fell more than 9%. Wall Street experienced his bigger fall porcentual in an alone day from the Black Monday in 1987, and the FTSE MIB of the Borsa Italian fell almost 17%, turning into the most prejudiced market along the Black Thursday. In spite of a temporary backstitch on 13 March (with the markets registering his best day from 2008), the 3 indexes of Wall Street fell more than 12% once that the markets reopened on 16 March. Along this time, had proclaimed that a stock market index of allusion in all the nations of the G7 and 14 of the nations of the G20 was in the markets bassists. [Appointment required]
Black Monday I (9 March)
Previous to the abertura, the market of futures of the Industrial Average Dow Jones experienced a fall of 1300 appearances thanks to the illness pandémica and the fall of the cost of the oil described before, which caused a commercial brake, or a disyuntor, that caused that the market of futures suspended the operations along 15 min. . This fall predicted of 1.300 punto would establish to 9 March like one of the appearances that more has fallen the Industrial Average Dow Jones in an alone day. Once that the market opened on 9 March, the Industrial Average Dow Jones collapsed 1800 appearances in the abertura, 500 appearances by down of the prediction.
The industrial average Dow Jones American lost enough more than 2000 punto, described by The News International like "the biggest fall never registered in the business intradiario". The Industrial Average Dow Jones struck a sequence of "commercial automatic" switches to brake the sales in panic. The oil Chevron and ExxonMobil fell near of 15%. The NASDAQ Composite, besides in USE, lost enough more than 620 appearances. [Necessary explanation] The S&P 500 fell 7,6%. The costs of the oil fell 22% and the performances of the titles of the Treasure of EE. UU. To 10 and 30 years fell by down of 0,40% and 1,02%, respectively. The compound index S & P / TSX Canadian concluded the independent day in enough more than 10%. IBOVESPA Brazilian yielded 12%, erasing enough more than 15 months of gains for the index. The ASX 200 of Australia lost 7,3%, his bigger daily fall from 2008, although it recovered afterwards in the day. The FTSE 100 of London lost 7,7%, suffering his worst fall from the financial crisis of 2008. BP and Shell Oil experienced fallen of costs intradía of almost 20%. The FTSE MIB, CAC 40 and DAX besides sank , being Italy the most affected while it continues the illness pandémica of coronavirus in the territory. They fell 11,2%, 8,4% and 7,9% respectively. The STOXX Europe 600 fell to enough more than 20% by down of his beak to starts of year.
In diverse Asian markets ?Japan, Singapore, Philippines and Indonesia? The occupations fell enough more than 20% from his more current beaks, going in in territory of market bassist. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 collapsed 5,1%. In Singapore, the index Straits Times fell 6,03%. In China, the index CSI 300 lost 3%. In Hong Kong, the index Hang Seng sank 4,2%. In Pakistan, the PSX experienced the biggest fall intradía in the history of the territory, losing 2.302 appearances or 6,0%. The market closed with the index KSE 100 going down 3,1%. In India, the BSE SENSEX closed 1.942 punto to the drop to 35.635, in what the NSE Nifty 50 went down 538 punto to 10.451.
The Washington Post posited that the agitation related with the illness pandémica could ocasionar a collapse of the bubble of the corporate debt, ocasionando and worsening a recession. The Central Bank of Russia did to know that it would suspend the shopping of the market of divisas in the domestic markets by 30 days, in what the Central Bank Brazilians auctioned $ 3,465 extra millions the market of divisas in 2 separate transactions and the Bank of Mexico increased his auctions of divisas. Program of $ 20 billion to $ 30 billion. Afterwards to announce a program of fiscal stimulus of 120.000 million dollars on 2 December, the Japanese prime minister, Shinzo Abe, did to know an additional public expense, in what the minister of Finances of Indonesia, Sri Mulyani, besides did to know an additional stimulus.
Black Thursday (12 March)
The black Thursday has been a fall of the world-wide stock market on 12 March 2020, like part of the biggest fall of the stock market of 2020. The American stock markets suffered the greater fall porcentual in a day from the fall of the stock exchange of 1987. From the Black Monday 3 days Previously, the Black Thursday attributed to the illness pandémica of coronavirus and to the lack of confidence of the investors in the mandator of USE, Donald Trump, Afterwards that it manifested a prohibition of trip of 30 days against the zone Schengen. Besides, the Central Bank European, directed by Christine Lagarde, took the decision of not cutting the types of interest in spite of the expectations of the market, which caused a fall of the futures of the S&P 500 of enough more than 200 punto in less than an hour.
Bank Indonesia did to know shopping in the open market of 4 trillion rupees (or 276,53 million dollars) in bonos governmental, in the meantime that the governor of the Bank of Indonesia, Perry Warjiyo, manifested that the shopping of bonos governmental in the open market of the Bank of Indonesia had gone up to 130 trillion rupees in the year and 110 trillion rupees from finals of January . In spite of denying to cut his tax of tank, the Central Bank European increased his shopping of active in 120.000 million euros (or 135.000 million dollars), in what the Federal Reservation did to know 1,5 trillion dollars in shopping in the open market. The Australian prime minister, Scott Morrison, did to know a package of fiscal stimulus of 17.600 million Australian dollars. The Bank of the Reservation of the Indian did to know that it would carry out a canje of divisas of $ 2 billion by American dollars along 6 months, in the meantime that the Bank of the Reservation of Australia did to know the repurchase of bonos governmental by $ 8,8 billion. The Central Bank Brazilians auctioned $ 1,780 millions in punto of divisas.
The stock markets of Asia-Pacífico closed (with the Nikkei 225 of the Stock exchange of Tokyo, the Index Hang Seng of the Stock exchange of Hong Kong and the IDX Composite of the Stock exchange of Indonesia falling to more than 20% by down of his maxima of 52 weeks ), The stock markets of Europe closed with a fall of 11% (with the index FTSE 100 in the Stock exchange of London, the DAX in the Stock exchange of Frankfurt, the CAC 40 in the Euronext Paris and the FTSE MIB in the Borsa Italian closing all enough more than 20 % by down of his more recent beaks), in what the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed with an additional fall of 10% (eclipsando the record of a day predetermined on 9 March), the NASDAQ Composite went down 9,4% and the S&P 500 went down 9,5% ( with the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 besides falling to more than 20% by down of his beaks), and the falls activated the commercial brake in the New York Stock Exchange for the second time said week. The costs of the oil fell 8%, in the meantime that the performances of the titles of the Treasure of EE. UU. To 10 and 30 years increased to 0,86% and 1,45% (and his curve of performance concluded with normality).
Crash
The industrial average Dow Jones and the index S&P 500 of EE. UU. They suffered the biggest fall porcentual in a day from the fall of the stock market of 1987, to the equal that the FTSE 100 of the Realm Unified, that fell 10,87%. The index composed of Canada S & P / TSX fell 12%, his bigger fall in a day from 1940. The Italian index FTSE MIB closed with a loss of 16,92%, the worst of his history. The DAX of Germany fell 12,24% and the CAC of France 12,28%. In Brazil, the Ibovespa collapsed 14,78%, after the negotiation of the B3 detained 2 times in the intradía; besides it moved by down of the mark of 70.000 previous to close by on top of her. The NIFTY 50 in the National Stock exchange of Values of the Indian fell 7.89% to more than 20% by down of his more existent beak, in what the BSE SENSEX in the Stock exchange of Bombay fell 2.919 (or 8.18%) to 32.778. The stock market index of allusion in the Stock exchange of Johannesburg fell 9,3%. The MERVAL in the Stock exchange of Business of Buenos Aires fell 9,5% to 19,5% in the week. On 12 March it has been the second time, from 9 March, that activated the disyuntor of fall of 7% from that implemented in 2013.
In Colombia, the weight marked a historical minimum in front of the dollar of United States, once that it negotiated by on top of the 4000 weights by first occasion registered. The Mexican weight besides marked a historical minimum in front of the dollar of United States, cotizando to 22,99 weights.
Black Monday II (16 March)
Along the previous weekend, the Monetary Authority of Saudi Arabia did to know a package of line of credit of 13.000 million dollars for small and average organisations, in what the mandator of South Africa, Cyril Ramaphosa, did to know a package of fiscal stimulus. The Federal Reservation did to know that recortaría the purpose of the tax of federal bottoms to 0% ?0.25%, it would diminish the requirements of reservation to zero and would begin a program of flexibilización quantitative of $ 700 billion.
The futures of Dow fell enough more than 1.000 punto and the futures of Standard & Poor's 500 fell 5%, which caused a disyuntor. The Monday 16 March, the stock exchanges of Asia-Pacífico and Europe closed (with the S & P / ASX 200 marking a record fall of a day of 9,7%, collapsing 30% from the beak reached on 20 February). The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the NASDAQ Composite and the S&P 500 fell between 12% and 13%, and the Dow eclipsó the record of fall of a day predetermined on 12 March and the brake of negotiation activated to the start of the negotiation by third time. Time (after the 9 and 12 March). The costs of the oil fell 10%, in what the performances of the values of the Treasure of EE. UU. To 10 and 30 years fell to 0,76% and 1,38% respectively (whereas his curve of performance kept common by third session of consecutive negotiation).
The index of volatility Cboe closed in 82,69 on 16 March, the greater closing never registered for the index (although there were beaks intradiarios more elevated in 2008). Around the midday of 16 March, the Bank of the Federal Reservation of New York did to know that it would do a repurchase of 500.000 million dollars along the afternoon of that day. The minister of Finances of Indonesia, Sri Mulyani, did to know an additional fiscal stimulus of 22 trillion rupees. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey diminished his lace forzoso of 8% to 6%. The Bank of Japan did to know that it would not diminish his banking tax from less 0,1%, nonetheless that would do more shopping in the open market of sought-after bottoms in stock exchange. Afterwards to cut his type of banking interest in 25 basic punto on 7 February, the Central Bank of Russia did to know that it would keep his type of banking interest in 6%, in what the Bank of Korea did to know that recortaría his type of interest to a day in 50 basic appearances until 0,75%. . The Central Bank of Chile recortó his tax of allusion, in the meantime that the Bank of the Reservation of New Zealand recortó his tax of effective official in 75 basic appearances to 0.25%. The National Bank Czech did to know that recortaría his type of banking interest in 50 basic punto until 1,75%.
USE
Payrolls no agricultural of EE. UU., 2005-February of 2021
Previous to the illness pandémica, there were signals of recession. The curve of performance of EE. UU. It invested to the rededor of 2019, which mainly suggests a following recession.
From March of 2020, the loss of places of work has been immediate. They lost some 16 million places of work in USES them in the 3 weeks that finalised on 4 April. The demands of unemployment reached a record, with 3,3 million demands presented in the week that finalised on 21 March. (The previous record was of 700.000 from 1982). Nevertheless, the week that finalised on 28 March, the demands of unemployment established another record in 6,7 millions and for 13 May, the new demands had surpassed the 35 millions. On 8 May, the Office of Labour Statistics informed a figure of unemployment Or-3 (official unemployment) of 14,7%, the maximum degree registered from 1941, with the unemployment Or-6 (total of unemployed more hard-working marginally linked and subempleados part time) reaching 22,8%.
For the personal states, the Office of Labour Statistics informed that the unemployment Or-3 maximum occurred in April of 2020 in Nevada (30,1%), Michigan (24,0%) and Hawai (23,8%), levels no observed from the Great Depression. They followed him Rhode Island in April (18,1%), Massachusetts in June (17,7%) and Ohio in April (17,6%). For December of 2020, the taxes of unemployment of the 3 higher states were recovering : Nevada (9,2%), Michigan (7,5%) and Hawai (9,3%), and other 7 states had recovered by down of 4,0%. Nevertheless, a high percentage of those gains can have been work part time, informed that the labour income in May of 2020 were of 40% part time.
The clientelismo of the restaurants diminished radically along the territory and the paramount airlines diminished his operations on a large scale. The 3 producing giants of cars detained the production. In April, the work of new houses fell 30%, reaching the lowest degree in 5 years.
Around 5,4 million Americans lost his safe doctor of February to May of 2020 afterwards to lose his works.
The index of financial stress of the Fed of St. Louis increased sharply of less than zero to 5,8 along March of 2020.el Department of Business of USES informed that the expense of the customers fell a 7,5 percent along the month of March of 2020. It has been the biggest monthly fall from that began the maintenance of registers. In 1959. Like consequence, the gross internal product of the territory diminished to a tax of the 4.8 percent along the first quarter of 2020.
The biggest legislation of economic stimulus in the American history, a package of 2 trillion dollars designated Law CARES, has turned into law on 27 March 2020.
The Office of Budget of the Congress informed in May of 2020 that:
? The tax of unemployment happened of 3,5% in February to 14,7% in April, which involves a bajón of enough more than 25 million individuals occupied, more other 8 million individuals that went out populational active.
? The decreasing of employments centred in industries that are subject to the "relations in person", like the retail business, the education, the services of health, the rest and the hospitality industry. Exemplifying, 8 of the 17 million employments of rest and hospitality industry lost in March and April.
? It expected that the economic effect prejudiced more to the smallest organisations and new, due to the fact that commonly they possess less financial mattress.
? The expense of the real consumer (adjusted to the inflation) fell 17% of February to April, once that the social distance reached his higher point. In April, the sales of cars and vans were 49% by down of the monthly average of aims of 2019. The demands of mortgages fell 30% in April of 2020 in front of April of 2019.
? It predicted that the Gross Internal Product real would fall to a near annual tax to 38% in the second quarter, or 11,2% comparatively with the previous quarter, with a return to an increase intertrimestral positive of 5,0% in the third quarter and of 2,5% in the fourth quarter of 2020. Nevertheless, , it did not expect that the Gross Internal Product real recovered his degree of the fourth quarter of 2019 until 2022 or afterwards.
? It predicted that the tax of unemployment promediará 11,5% in 2020 and 9,3% in 2021.
? In June of 2020, the economic forecaster Jim Cramer mentioned that the reply to the recession of the coronavirus has carried to one of the biggest transfers of wealth to the ultrarricos in the up to date history. On 30 July 2020, it informed that the gross internal product of the second quarter of EE. UU. It fell to a tax anualizada of 33%.
Hispanic
It expects that the recession caused by coronavirus was the worst in the chronicle of Latin America. It expects that the Latin American nations fall in a "stray decade", with the Gross Internal Product of Latin America going back to the levels of 2010, falling 9,1%. The portion in which it expects that it fall the Gross Internal Product by territory enumerates afterwards.
Contraction of the Gross Internal Product of the territory
- Mexico:
The perspectives of Mexico already were bad previous to the crisis, with a slight recession in 2019.The plans of economic development of the mandator Andrés Manuel López Obrador were based in the gains of the oil state Pemex, however the collapse of the cost of the oil now has created doubts on those plans. Further of the oil, the economy of the territory besides is dependent of the tourism, the business with USE and the remesas, that besides see damaged. All the mentioned drove to this that can be the worst recession of Mexico in a century, and the worst of Latin America afterwards of Venezuela. In addition to this prediction, the contraction of the economy of Mexico in 2020 has been minor that the one of Venezuela, Peru, Panama, Argentina and the same to the one of Ecuador.
- Venezuela -26%
- Peru -13%
- Brazil -10,5%
- Argentina -9,2%
- Ecuador -9%
- Mexico -9%
- The Saviour -8,6%
- Nicaragua -8,3%
- Cuba -8%
- Chile -7,9%
- Panama -6,5%
- Honduras -6,1%
- Colombia -5,6%
- Costa Rica -5,5%
- Dominican Republic -5,3%
- Bolivia -5,2%
- Uruguay -5%
- Guatemala -4,1%
- Paraguay -2,3%
Other sources have the possibility to await different figures. In Panama, expects that coronavirus subtract US $ 5,8 billion of the Gross Internal Product of Panama. One of the reasons of the fall of Chile is the reduction of the demand of copper of EE. UU. And Chinese because of the coronavirus.
Canada
In June of 2020, the tax of national unemployment in Canada was of 12,5%, in front of 13,7% May.
The total unemployment increased in 3 millions and the total of hours worked fell 30% between February and April of 2020. The sales of construction of Canada in March fell to the lowest degree from mediated of 2016, due to the fact that the sales of the elaboradores of cars and providers of spares collapsed more than 30%.
In reply, the Regimen Canadian put diverse profits, between them, the Profit of reply of Canadian emergency, the Profit of student of Canadian emergency and the Subsidio salarial of Canadian emergency.
China
Like consequence of the recession, the economy of China contracted by first occasion in almost 50 years. The Gross Internal Product national for the first quarter of 2020 fell 6,8% interanual, 10,0% Inter quarterly, and the Gross Internal Product of the province of Hubei fell 39,2% in the same lapse.
In May of 2020, the Chinese prime minister Li Keqiang did to know that, by first occasion in the history, the regimen central would not establish an aim of economic increase for 2020, due to the fact that the economy contracted 6,8% comparatively with 2019 and China confronta to a while "impredecible". . Nevertheless, the regimen besides manifested his intention to produce 9 million new urban employments until finals of 2020.
In October of 2020, did know that the Gross Internal Product of the third quarter of China had grown 4,9%, by which did not fulfil the expectations of the analysts (that they established in 5,2%). Nevertheless, yes it shows that the economy of China has been recovering of form reiterated of the effect of the covid-19 that produced a low increase in decades. To boost the economic increase, the territory reserved million million dollars for notable projects of infrastructure and used politics of populational follow-up and applied the rigorous blockade to contain the virus. It is the exclusive fundamental economy that expects that it grow in 2020, in accordance with the FMI.
For December of 2020, the economic recovery of China was accelerating along an increasing demand of products manufacturados. The Centre of Averiguación Economic and Business with base in the Realm Unified projected that the "skillful administration of the illness pandémica" of China would realise that the Chinese economy surpassed to the one of United States and did the most enormous economy of all the world by Gross Internal Product nominal in 2028, 5 years antecedent of the longed for.
Conclusion
United States is the pais that handles the coin but inflada and but big all over the world, being but of 60% of the money the dolar. At present but of 21m of families of USES have debts the economic impact of the protests in the EE. UU. It has exacerbated the recession of the COVID-19 when reducing drastically the confidence of the consumer. With a cost estimated of $50 millions. However, because of the blockade implemented to brake the propagation of the virus before the moment of the first protests, the unemployment increased in a sudden way in less than a month, leaving to more than 21 millions without alone work in EE. UU. (Of 3 +% to 14 +% ), that also supported the necessary circumstances for durable protests. Several small companies, that already were suffering the economic impact of the pandemia of COVID-19, suffered damages by vandalism, destruction of properties and saqueos. You touch them of it remains established by the local governments - in reply so much to the pandemia as to the protests - also have restricted the access to the [areas] of the centre" to the essential workers, reducing the economic production. And this is not the unica protests at present. Several paises estan levantandose, giving of examples to paises of america Latin or UK. Ademas Of the increase of taxes, and the impresion of but and but money.
In the personal think that the banks estan better prepared for this possible new crisis, that is normal, the market is cycle, no bandages. Holdea Your active, or looks for a form to protect you. Those that won seran those bear the stray in the short term. But they win on a long-term basis. We can notice that crisis of 2008 is quite similar to what live at present. I am not positive in ningun market, this informacion is recopilada, no all is written by my person, but expect help you. At present they exist but of 1000 shorts in the economia global of part of the institutional, informate and studies. And mantente firm. A greeting.
Some people think that will not have a recesion economica worse to which had to the 2008, since we are "Better ready", really do not consider that have a crisis economica so criticise, but doubt that we are prepared by what goes to come.
Aqui Left you data and councils that helped you to protect your savings and investments.
First need to know that it is Money FIAT.
"The money does not exist", the existent is a representation of the mind of the money. Nonetheless we do not go so far, since in truth the money if it exists physically, at least a section to way of notes and coins, asi like another in shape virtual part or electronic. However in which if it is that his cost is not intrinsic, this wants to say that for a stray person in an empty island, simply does not serve.
The money then is a convention, something to this that the humans have given him cost by reciprocal consensus, was gold, silver and beautiful metals that cost by his characteristics of durability and shortage, was Money fiat that voucher by decree or fiat currency that voucher as this with base in a debt. Even it has invented money that voucher as his virtual construction is little in if same: the Bitcoin .
The term FIAT is of Latin origin and means to the letter "that asi was". Of this form put that the money fiat is that whose cost this backed by the populational confidence that uses it and exists by the authority of the power that issues it.
Having this present speak of the power of the governments to print what money asi wish...
A Brief History of the Money
The money like such is born by the need to find a half that accelerated the process of trueque. Of this form some human teams arrived to the consensus to use some palpable articles that represented a clear-cut cost. They used the cacao, the dust of gold, the jade, marine shells and other products. (To said products appoints them "Money Mercancia"). Nonetheless with the step him them centuries, only 2 tangible articles, the silver however primordialmente the gold, fulfilled with the paramount functionalities that would have to realise the money: be measured of cost, instrument of trueque and reservation of wealth, characteristics that derive of the intrinsic cost of his shortage, consistency, quality and resistance to the corrosion. Afterwards, to evade the need that in each transaction had to measure the proportion of beautiful metal that received , the states began to amonedar these metals of such form that certified the purity and weight of the coin. Coin coins of gold and silver was continuously an act of autonomy. This money even exists, nonetheless has fallen into disuse by the obstacles that the governments have predetermined to his use. Exemplifying, in Mexico only 2 banks sell and buy coins of gold and silver, and realise it in a schedule restricted and in portions limited, of such form that realise difficult the independent trueque of the metals. Of this form inhibits his use like coin of current of change.
Until 1694, the alone planet knew the money to way of beautiful metals. However from previously another type of money venia gestando. Again, it has been product of the need of the business. Chord went opening new and every time but far routes to negotiate, has been less practise and sure the move physically the values for mercar and sell. Of this form arose places and individuals (banks and bankers) that protected the values, to measure that the trader travelled and that issued monetary receipts. Said were those that delivered in the operations of purchase- commercialisation. Once accepted the receipt, this deposited in the bank of the seller, the banker by his side, to a balance with the banker of the urbe of the customer and compensated the debitos and the credits. The gold and the silver change of owner, without modifying of physical place.
However like such the fiat currency appeared in 1694, once that the Bank of England obtained the right to produce the coins of England in the way of money paper. The money paper has been proclaimed so good like coins of gold or silver due to the fact that it was backed by gold and real silver. Said new monetary receipts promised the delivery of the coin of gold or of silver, to the fork. They generated a legal right on spoken gold and silver. It called him fiat currency by the Latin root of the word, "fido", that means "trust". The fork of the note "will pay" trusted that the emisor of the will pay would deliver gold or silver, against presentation of the note. This finish for the particular in EU in 1933, from the explosion of the big depression, once that the regimen confiscate all the gold circulante and returned crime possess it. Nonetheless the end of the fiat currency occurred on 15 August 1971, once that the regimen of the territory but powerful of all the world, took the decision of not fulfilling a promise that had realised to the rest of the countries.
In 1944 the second world-wide war was almost won for the partners. In Bretton Woods, (New Hampshire), lead them of all the world carried out the Monetary and Financial Conference of the UN. There the paramount winner of the war (because it was not touched by this in his continental territory), USES them of America, obtained the privilege that his serious coin used like coin of world-wide change. In return it promised to the rest of the countries, conserve the cost of the gold in 35,00 dollars by ounce and purchased the commitment to modify dollars by gold to that cost without limitations neither restrictions. When following being fixed the cost of the dollar, the others territories would have to fix the cost of his coins with interaction to that, and to be paramount, take part in the markets cambiarios with the aim to conserve the exchange rates in a band of fluctuation of 1%. With this established the norms for the commercial and financial collaborations postwar. Less than 30 years later, EU would break flagrantemente his promise. Once that Nixon, in 1971 decreed that it would not return to modify dollars by gold. In the actuality does not exist fiat currency in the planet, any note or coin represents any exigible right by his owner, headed by the one who issues the note. That day basically disappeared the money with base in something tangible, due to the fact that I leave to be common coin of change and the money circulante leave to have money mercancia (gold and silver) like backrest.
The money fiat arose of the inviabilidad governmental of United States to back in gold the dolares that was issuing in the decade of the 60 and 70. It has been in good measure another disastrous effect but of the war of Vietnam. As it explains the Wikipedia: In 1971 the territory had a commercial deficit by first occasion during the 20th century. The nations of Europe began to modify the dollars sobrevalorados by German frames and by gold. Of this form, France and Great Britain sued to USA the conversion of his excedentes of dollars in gold. Therefore, the reservations of Fort Knox, where is deposited the American gold, contracted . Like reply, the mandator Richard Nixon prevented the conversions of the dollar and devaluated it (to do that the American exports were cheaper and relieve the commercial disequilibrium). Likewise, Nixon imposed a temporary tariff of 10% and had triumph in forcing to said territories to revalorizar his coin, however no in producing a new system of types cambiarios stable. By the way, the cost of the coins initiated to fluctuate.
As already it mentioned , the term "fiat" means do, in Latin. I reiterate, if it is money that only exists by governmental decree. It does not possess but backrest that the populational confidence that uses it, does not promise delivery of something of cost to his owner; it exists and voucher by the strength of the state that orders that decree. In the actuality, only exists money fiat in the planet. This money costs in the business since in the instant of his construction substituted to another money that yes possessed cost (real money) or promised cost (fiat currency). The two types of money transmitted part of his cost to the money fiat and the universal business accepted it in the commercial exchanges.
Besides, the oil, the paramount commoditie of the 20th century, initiated to exchange by dollars because of the agreements between the dynasty Saud and the regimen of U.S.. The other of commodities followed this footpath by the push of the fortress of the dollar until remaining nominated in said notes the other of the commercial transactions of all the world.
A custody of the system fiat is that the money really would not have to cost by the commoditie that back it. In other terms does not represent an object little, that has cost cuasi intrinseco. But well it represents a the work of the society to generate goods or loan services. In this linea of thought once that a person this paying $150 weights by a cymbal in a restaurant, well podria say that this exchanging an hour of his history (worked realising stoves for example) by the food and the era of the cook, mesero, etcetera
Until aqui all well. However the problem begins once that the escases of that money fiat this controlled by a group to be able to, potentially discretionary. The best example is the function of the central banks of all the world (with the FED in command) to print so much money as it was paramount to cover his obligations of payment, however without need to increase the real wealth of the country, trastocandose the equivalence money fiat = time worked in producing goods and services. The result is a viable insidious transfer and subtle, of the wealth of the populational thickness to the area or place where the state needs it. This achieves it by means of the one of the inflation, subject on which will go back on this phenomenon but advance.
In the period of the information, the money fiat besides has suffered another change. It has left to be something tangible. Included by the moment is not his greater part, not even a part of paper. Now it is only an initiative. An initiative that plasma to way of "banking tanks" that only there is in the collective mind of the society and in the pcs of the banks. Now the central banks, to produce but money out of nowhere, not even have to throw to walk the press to print notes. Simply "they inject" to the economy the initiative that there is but money, authorising to the banks to loan but without bigger backrest. In EU the system of reservation fraccional does magic on magic, appearing money to loan, tecleando some norms in a computer. Some economists have designated imaginary money to this class of coin fiat.
Types of Money in the History:
Money Commodity: With base in an object fisico to the that attributes him cost intrinseco by his escases consistency, quality and resistance to the corrosion.
Fiat currency: This that this backed by by gold and silver or another real product.
Money Fiat: This existent and voucher by the strength of the state that issues it.
Imaginary money: Money Fiat however intangible.
The problems mentioned with the money fiat and his by-product the imaginary money, especially the ease with that can manipulate his shortage, have caused that some analysts like Hugo Saltworks Price express his doubts and criticise on the banking system fiat. Saltworks Price in an interview to the magazine "Forbes" titled "Everything in our new world is a lie." It explains his vision of which this system involves. Segun Saltworks Price live in a "world of Dreams, with base in fictitious money that is being building without any limit. It look the fantastic plans of Japan to generate vast, astronomical sums of money fíat happens to go out of the economic fear. We possess that have imagination, yes, however anchored in the truth, no in fantastic dreams. We are dreaming to a quite real Hell, thanks to the imaginary money, that is which see us forced to use ?All the money in the banks is alone imaginary money." (Textual appointment. I articulate complete aqui )
The tax but silent: The inflation.
The term inflation install in the imaginary Mexican community in the decade of the 80s. In said infausta stage were witnesses of the disappearance of the power of purchase of the weights and of the apparition of diverse zeros in the in shape uncontrolled notes. Nonetheless in neither a form is a new evil. By the way in the Germany from among wars has been this phenomenon one of the feeders of the Nazi madness.
In any place have observed an explanation but didactic and simplified of how gives this phenomenon, that in the articulate Inflation, oil and money in time of crisis of March of the 2006 published by Marcos Martínez
"The monetary mass, would have to save a narrow interaction with the goods that have to exchange. In a start, would have to give a precarious balance in consequence neither was missing neither on money. This is the realised paramount that gives utility to the coin and does him be which is, a just equivalent of trueque. However the problems appear once that the proportion of coin increases to bigger rapidity that the production of goods that change . In other terms something that has sucedido once that the regimen for the moment in each historical instant has considered that it could manipulate the money creating it out of nowhere, without backrest in a growth parejo of material wealth "
Of this form, in the universal crisis of 2008, the monetary mass of EU duplicate in an alone year, to save the tambaleante financial system. This expansionary monetary policy has like end arouse the magnitude of the monetary offer of a territory, so that that the regimen increase the public expense and that incentive the reflation of the expense of the organisations and families. These ideas were posited by the economist John Maynard Keynes along the decade of 1930. And it was the way to answer to the crises economicas in distinct situations.
Financial crisis in 2008.
Financial crisis of 2007-08, besides called crisis of mortgages of high danger, severe contraction of the liquidity in the global financial markets that derived in USES them like consequence of the collapse of the real-estate market of United States. It intimidated with deleting the universal financial system; it caused the failure (or almost breaks) of diverse notable commercial banks and of investment, lenders hipotecarios, companies of insurances and associations of saving and loan; and it precipitated the Big Recession (2007-2009), the worst economic recession from the Great Depression (1929-c. 1939).
Reasons of the crisis
Although the precise reasons of the financial crisis are a subject of dispute between the economists, exists a general pact on the components that influenced (the professionals do not remain of consensus on his relative transcendence).
First, the Federal Reservation (Fed), the central bank of USE, having anticipated a slight recession that began in 2001, diminished the tax of federal bottoms (the tax of interest that the banks earn between yes by loans to a day of federal bottoms, or was, balances kept in a bank of the Federal Reservation) 11 times between May of 2000 and December of 2001, of 6.5 percent to 1.75 percent. Said significant decrease allowed to the banks lengthen credit to the consumption to a favourite tax lower (the tax of interest that the banks earn to his preferential "consumers" or of low danger, mainly 3 punto porcentuales by on top of the tax of federal bottoms) and encouraged them to loan included to consumers ?subprime? Or of high danger, although to taxes of interest higher (see loans subprime). The customers took advantage of the economic credit for mercar durable goods like appliances, cars and especially houses. The result has been the construction to finals of the years 90 of one ?Real-estate bubble? (A swift growth of the costs of the house to levels enough by on top of his important or intrinsic cost, promoted by an excessive speculation).
In second place, thanks to the changes in the banking laws that began in the decade of 1980, the banks could give to the consumers of high danger loans hipotecarios structured with global payments (payments unusually giant that win finally or near of the end of a lapse of loan) or taxes of adjustable interest. (Taxes that are statics in levels subjetivamente basses along an initial lapse and float, mainly with the tax of federal bottoms, since). To measure that the costs of the houses followed increasing, the borrowers of high danger could protect against the high payments hipotecarios refinanciando, asking loans against the increase of the cost of his houses or selling his houses with a gain and cancelling his mortgages. In case of incumplimiento, the banks could recobrar the property and sell it by more than the cost of the original loan. Therefore, the loans of high danger represented a yielding investment for quite a lot of banks. Of way, several banks commercialised aggressively loans of high danger to consumers with bad credit or few active, knowing that those borrowers could not credit the loans and, comunmente, deceiving them on the dangers related. Like consequence, the quantity of mortgages of high danger between all the loans hipotecarios increased of around a 2,5 percent to almost a 15 percent by year from finals of the years 90 until 2004-2007.
In third place, contributed to the increase of the loans of high danger the practice generalised of the titulización, by means of which the banks grouped hundreds or included an enormous quantity of mortgages of high danger and other ways of debt of consumption less riesgosas and sold them (or pieces of them) in the markets of capital like values (bonos) to other banks and investors, integrated bottoms of coverage and pension funds. The bonos that consist primordialmente in mortgages knew like values backed by mortgages, or MBS, that gave right to his consumers to a section of the payments of interests and paramount of the underlying loans. The commercialisation of mortgages of high danger like MBS considered a good form so that the banks increased his liquidity and diminished his exhibition to loans riesgosos, in what the purchase of MBS considered a good form so that the banks and the investors diversified his wallets and made money. While the costs of the houses continued his meteoric promotion to starts of the decade of 2000, the MBS did quite famous and his costs in the markets of capital increased because of which.
In fourth place, in 1999 revoked partially the Law Glass-Steagall of the period of the Depression (1933), which allowed to the banks, the organisations of values and the companies of insurances go in in the markets of the others and merge, which finished in the training of banks that were "quite enormous to break". ?(It is to mention, so enormous that his failure would loom with undermining all the financial system). Besides, in 2004 the Commission of Stock exchange and Values (SEC) weakened the requirement of net capital (the interaction between capital or active and debt or passive that the banks have to conserve like salvaguardia against the insolvency), which encouraged to the banks to invest even more money in MBS. Although the election of the SEC finished in monumental gains for the banks, besides exposed his wallets to a notable danger, since the cost of the active of the MBS was based implicitly in the continuation of the real-estate bubble.
In fifth and last place, the extensive lapse of security and world-wide economic increase that preceded velozmente to the crisis, that began to mediated and aims of the years 80 and from then knew like the "Big Moderation", had convinced to several banking executives, burócratas governmental and economists of EE. UU. Said extreme economic volatility was thing of the past. Said unsuspecting reaction, together with an ideological climate that emphasizes the desregulación and the function of the financial signatures to control to himself same, carried to almost all to desconocer or descartar clear signs of an imminent crisis and, in the situation of the bankers, to be followed loaning and borrowing unwisely. And practical of titulización.
Key events of the crisis
From 2004, a sequence of events presaged the following crisis, although poquísimos economists anticipated his big scale. Along a lapse of 2 years (June of 2004 to June of 2006) the Fed elevated the tax of federal bottoms of 1,25 to 5,25 percent, which inevitably finished in more incumplimientos by borrowers of high danger with mortgages of adjustable tax (ARM). In some form because of the increase of the taxes, however also because the market of the house had reached a point of saturation, the sales of houses and, therefore, the costs of the houses, began to fall in 2005. Several headlines of mortgages of high danger could not rescue borrowing, refinanciando or selling his houses, as there was less consumers and as several headlines of mortgages now had to more by his loans of which cost his houses (were ?Submerged?), an increasingly common phenomenon while it developed the crisis. While more and more borrowers subprime broke his payments and the costs of the houses continued falling, the MBS based ??In mortgages subprime lost cost, with grave sequelas for the wallets of several banks and organisations of investment. By the way, since the MBS caused in the real-estate market of EE. UU. Besides they had bought and sold in other territories (especially in the western European continent), varied of which had experienced his own real-estate bubbles, velozmente evidenció that the problem in USES them would have global problems. Repercussions, although the greater part of the professionals insisted in that the problems were not so grave as they seemed and that could contain the bad to the financial markets.
For 2007, the strong fall in the value of the MBS had caused important losses in a lot of banks, bottoms of coverage and lenders hipotecarios and forced even to some big and prominent companies to clear the bottoms of coverage that invested in MBS to request loans to the government. Look for fusions with companies healthier, or declare in failure. Even the companies that were not immediately loomed suffered losses of billions of dollars, since the MBS in which they had invested so much now were degraded by the agencies of qualification crediticia, turning into active ?Toxic? (Essentially without value). (Later, said agencies were accused of a severe conflict of interests, because his services were paid by the same banks whose titles of debt described. This financial relation initially created an incentive so that the agencies assigned qualifications engañosamente high to some MBS, according to the critics. .) In April of 2007, New Century Financial Corp., one of the lenders of high risk bigger, declared in failure and shortly after a lot of other lenders of high risk ceased his operations. Due to the fact that they no longer could fund loans of high risk by means of the sale of MBS, the banks left to award loans to customers of high risk, what caused that the sales of houses and the prices of the houses fell even more, what discouraged the purchase of houses even between the consumers with qualifications crediticias of first, depressing even more the sales and the prices. In August, the biggest bank of France, BNP Paribas, announced losses by billions of dollars and another big American company, American Home Mortgage Investment Corp., it declared in failure.
Partly because it was difficult to determine the scope of the debt of high risk in any MBS given (because the MBS generally sold in pieces, mixed with another debt and revenden in the markets of capitals like new values in a process that could continue indefinitely). Also it is difficult to evaluate the solidez of the banking wallets that contain MBS like active, even for the bank that possesses them. In consequence, the banks began to doubt of the solvencia of the other, what caused a congelamiento in the market of federal bottoms with consequences potentially disastrous. At the beginning of August, the Fed began to buy federal bottoms (in shape of governmental values) to provide to the banks more liquidity and like this reduce the tax of federal bottoms, that had surpassed in brief the aim of the Fed of the 5,25 percent. The central banks of other parts of the world, especially of the European Union, Australia, Canada and Japan, carried out operations of similar open market. However, the intervention of the Fed finally did not attain to stabilise the American financial market, what forced to the Fed to reduce directly the tax of federal bottoms thrice between September and December, to 4,25 percent. During the same period, the fifth greater lender hipotecario of the United Kingdom, Northern Rock, remained without active liquids and requested a loan to the Bank of England. The news of the rescue generated panic between the depositantes and resulted in the first run banking in the United Kingdom in 150 years. Northern Rock was nationalised by the British government in February of 2008.
The crisis in USES them deepened in the first month of the year of 2008 once that Bank of America agreed mercar Countrywide Financial, once the paramount lender hipotecario of the territory, by $ 4 billion in activities, a part of the previous cost of the company. In March, the prestigious signature of investment of Wall Street Bear Stearns, afterwards to having exhausted his active liquids, has been bought by JPMorgan Chase, that simultaneously had suffered an enormous quantity of million dollars in losses. Fearing that the failure of Bear Stearns loomed to other notable banks of which had borrowed, the Fed facilitated the commercialisation accepting 30.000 million dollars of the active of high danger of the organisation. To measure that so much, the Fed began another round of reductions in the tax of federal bottoms, of 4.25 percent to starts of January to alone 2 percent in April (the tax diminished again later in the year, to the 1 percent to finals of October and in effect to 0 percent in December). Although the cuts of types and other interventions along the first semester of the year have had any impact stabilizer, did not put end to the crisis; by the way, the worst was for arriving.
In the summer of 2008, Fannie Mae (the Society Hipotecaria National Federal) and Freddie Mac (the Corporation Hipotecaria Federal of Loans Hipotecarios), the corporations authorised by the regimen federal that dominated the market hipotecario secondary (the market of purchase and commercialisation of loans hipotecarios) were in serious problems. . The two institutions established to give liquidity to the lenders hipotecarios buying loans hipotecarios and keeping them or selling them ?With guarantee of payment of capital and interests? To other banks and investors. The two were authorised to sell loans hipotecarios like MBS. While the quantity of mortgages of high danger between all the loans hipotecarios initiated to increase to starts of the decade of 2000 (partly thanks to changes of politics designed to boost the property of houses between the minoritary groups and of low income), the wallets of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac went back more riesgosas, due to the fact that his passive could be monumental if an enormous group of headlines of mortgages did not pay his loans. When the MBS created from loans of high danger lost cost and at the end went back toxic, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac suffered big losses and confronted to the failure. To evade his collapse, the Department of the American Treasure nationalised the two corporations in September, replacing to his directors and engaging to cover his debts, that afterwards rose to some 1,6 trillion dollars.
To ends of that month, the bank of investments Lehman Brothers, of 168 years of antiquity, with 639.000 million dollars in active, manifested in failure more enormous in the American history. His failure designed a durable agitation in the financial markets of all the planet, weakened gravely the wallets of the banks that had loaned him money and boosted one totally new desconfianza between the banks, which carried them to minimise even more the loans interbancarios. Although Lehman had tried to find allies or consumers and expected the governmental support to facilitate a deal, the Department of the Treasure denied to take part, quoting "moral danger" (in this situation, the danger that save to Lehman would boost the imprudent behaviour of other banks in the future , that would suppose that they could depend on the governmental support like last resource). Nevertheless, only a day afterwards, the Fed agreed to loan to American International Group (AIG), the company of insurances more enormous of the territory, $ 85 billion to cover the losses in relation with the commercialisation of credit default swaps (CDS), a financial agreement that salvaguarda to the forks of diverse artefacts of debt, integrated MBS, in case of incumplimiento of the underlying loans. Unlike Lehman, AIG considered "quite enormous to break", as his collapse possibly would cause the failure of several banks that had bought CDS to guarantee his shopping of MBS, that now did not have cost. Less than 2 weeks afterwards of the disappearance of Lehman, Washington Mutual, the biggest bank of savings and loans of the territory, has been confiscated by the federal regulators and sold the next day to JPMorgan Chase.
In that instant, there was a general agreement between the economists and the burócratas of the Department of the Treasure that it was elementary a reply of the most forceful government to evade a collapse complete of the financial system and a durable evil to the American economy. Bush posed a legislation, the Law of Economic Stabilisation of Emergency (EESA), that would establish a Program of Relief of Active in Inconvenient (TARP), in advantage of the cual the Secretary of the Treasure, Henry Paulson, would be authorised to mercar to EE. Banks until $ 700 billion in MBS and other "active " in problems".
Nevertheless, fast evidenció that the purchase of MBS by governmental part would not provide sufficient liquidity to time to evade the failure of diverse banks more. Therefore, Paulson has been authorised to use until $ 250 billion in bottoms of the TARP for mercar preferential activities in financial institutions in problems, which has converted to the regimen federal in copropietario of enough more than 200 banks for end of year. The measures of the Fed included the purchase of bonos of the American Treasure to extensive term and MBS for loans hipotecarios of first quality, eases of loan for forks of values of high qualification and the purchase of MBS and other debts in power of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. For once that the programs of QE finished of official way in 2014, the Fed had injected enough more than 4 trillion dollars in the economy of United States. In spite of the warnings of some economists that the construction of trillion dollars in new money would drive to the hiperinflación, the tax of inflation of EE.
Now it exists a general pact in that the measures taken by the Fed to defend the American financial system and arouse the economic increase collaborated to warn a world-wide economic catastrophe. In it USES them, the recovery of the worst effects of the Big Recession besides observed favoured by the Law of Recovery and Reinversión American, a program of stimulus and relief of 787.000 million dollars posed by the management of Barack Obama and adopted by the Congress in February of 2009. In 2010, the Congress adopted the Law of Reform and Custody to the Consumer of Wall Street (the Law Dodd-Frank), that instituyó banking regulations to warn another financial crisis and designed an Office of Financial Custody to the Consumer, that commissioned to regulate, between other things, the loans hipotecarios of high danger. Nevertheless, afterwards of 2017, a lot of positions of the Law Dodd-Frank were revoked or neutralised truly by a Congress controlled by the republicans and the management of Donald J.
Effects and consequences of the crisis
In an analysis of 2018, the Bank of the Federal Reservation of San Francisco located that, 10 years later of the start of the financial crisis, the gross internal product of the territory was around a 7 percent lower of which had been if the crisis had not occurred, which represents a loss of $ 70,000 in income for life by each of United States. Around 7,5 million places of work lost between 2007 and 2009, which represents a duplication of the tax of unemployment, that situated in almost the 10 percent in 2010.
For the greater part of the Americans, the recovery of the financial crisis and the Big Recession has been excessively slow. Those that more had suffered: the million families that lost his domiciles, businesses or savings; the million workers that lost his places of work and confronted to the unemployment of extensive length; the million individuals that fell in the poverty continued struggling years later that it had been over the worst of the confusion. Besides, any CEO of United States or another high executive headed to the penitenciaría or included has been processed by penal charges, in marked contrast with previous financial scandals, like the crisis of savings and loans of the years 80 and the failure of Enron in 2001. Generally, the The key leaders of the financial organisations, as well as other quite rich Americans, had not lost so much in proportional terms like the members of the half classes and drop, and for 2010 had recovered to a large extent his losses, in what several usual Americans never did it.
Aiming to the economic elites and to a political and economic system that simulated elaborated to serve to the interests of the quite rich (the "1 percent", in comparison to the "99 percent"), the trip designed consciousness on the economic difference in USES them , a powerful subject that fast has turned into subject of the political rhetoric democrat so much to federal degree like state.
Upgrade 2021 - Summary
In full crisis of the Covid-19, owed to the designated "Big Confinement", follows implementing the same recipe: it USES aprobo a rescue by 2.2 trillion dolares, 10% of the Gross Internal Product of United States. Of course to way of money developed out of nowhere.
The hiperinflación, of the same form that saw it the Mexicans in the years ochentas, of the same form that lived it the Germans in the treintas or like the estan suffering the Venezuelans in the actuality is the result to abuse of this politica expansionary. It is maybe time to save the learnt in the hard lessons that said processes inflacionarios left or estan leaving to his inhabitants.
For offering an exemplification of a leccion learnt by the but ancient in Mexico. That do to conserve the equivalent to 4 months of wage of an employee comun, that won $2500 weights in 2005?. In said year the centenary of gold was around the 10 one thousand weights. In 2010 this in the order of the 20 one thousand weights. In 2020 in full crisis of the Covid-19 this in 56 one thousand weights. The one who save those 4 months of wage (10 one thousand weights) in the bank, win between 1 and 5 % annual of performance. The one who buy gold, win but of 500% in said 15 years. It is clear cual is the paper that even plays the appointed "money mercancia"
With all which is not clear is until where can arrive the monetary system fiat. What but bore the economia the inundacion of money indiscriminada. Ademas The defenders of this system sustain: Because it has not shot the hiperinflacion?... Quiza Is of such intensity the disaster that estariamos in deflacion without did not go by the tsunami of imaginary money.
COVID19-Reccesion
The collapse of the world-wide stock exchange initiated on 20 February 2020, although the economic points of the crisis began to materialise to finals of 2019. Thanks to the illness pandémica of coronavirus, the markets of all the world, the banks and the organisations confronted to crisis no seen from the Great Depression in 1929. [Appointment required]
Of the 24 to 28 February, the stock exchanges of all the planet registered his bigger falls in a week from the financial crisis of 2008, going in of this form in a correction. The global markets to starts of March went back radically volatile and produced monumental swings. On 9 March, the biggest part of the international markets informed of bass espasmos, primordialmente in reply to the illness pandémica of coronavirus and a war of costs of the oil between Russia and the nations of the OPEP directed by Saudi Arabia. This knew commonly like Black Monday I, and in that instant has been the worst fall from the Big Recession in 2008.
3 days from the Black Monday I, there was another fall, the Black Thursday, where the occupations of the European continent and North America fell more than 9%. Wall Street experienced his bigger fall porcentual in an alone day from the Black Monday in 1987, and the FTSE MIB of the Borsa Italian fell almost 17%, turning into the most prejudiced market along the Black Thursday. In spite of a temporary backstitch on 13 March (with the markets registering his best day from 2008), the 3 indexes of Wall Street fell more than 12% once that the markets reopened on 16 March. Along this time, had proclaimed that a stock market index of allusion in all the nations of the G7 and 14 of the nations of the G20 was in the markets bassists. [Appointment required]
Black Monday I (9 March)
Previous to the abertura, the market of futures of the Industrial Average Dow Jones experienced a fall of 1300 appearances thanks to the illness pandémica and the fall of the cost of the oil described before, which caused a commercial brake, or a disyuntor, that caused that the market of futures suspended the operations along 15 min. . This fall predicted of 1.300 punto would establish to 9 March like one of the appearances that more has fallen the Industrial Average Dow Jones in an alone day. Once that the market opened on 9 March, the Industrial Average Dow Jones collapsed 1800 appearances in the abertura, 500 appearances by down of the prediction.
The industrial average Dow Jones American lost enough more than 2000 punto, described by The News International like "the biggest fall never registered in the business intradiario". The Industrial Average Dow Jones struck a sequence of "commercial automatic" switches to brake the sales in panic. The oil Chevron and ExxonMobil fell near of 15%. The NASDAQ Composite, besides in USE, lost enough more than 620 appearances. [Necessary explanation] The S&P 500 fell 7,6%. The costs of the oil fell 22% and the performances of the titles of the Treasure of EE. UU. To 10 and 30 years fell by down of 0,40% and 1,02%, respectively. The compound index S & P / TSX Canadian concluded the independent day in enough more than 10%. IBOVESPA Brazilian yielded 12%, erasing enough more than 15 months of gains for the index. The ASX 200 of Australia lost 7,3%, his bigger daily fall from 2008, although it recovered afterwards in the day. The FTSE 100 of London lost 7,7%, suffering his worst fall from the financial crisis of 2008. BP and Shell Oil experienced fallen of costs intradía of almost 20%. The FTSE MIB, CAC 40 and DAX besides sank , being Italy the most affected while it continues the illness pandémica of coronavirus in the territory. They fell 11,2%, 8,4% and 7,9% respectively. The STOXX Europe 600 fell to enough more than 20% by down of his beak to starts of year.
In diverse Asian markets ?Japan, Singapore, Philippines and Indonesia? The occupations fell enough more than 20% from his more current beaks, going in in territory of market bassist. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 collapsed 5,1%. In Singapore, the index Straits Times fell 6,03%. In China, the index CSI 300 lost 3%. In Hong Kong, the index Hang Seng sank 4,2%. In Pakistan, the PSX experienced the biggest fall intradía in the history of the territory, losing 2.302 appearances or 6,0%. The market closed with the index KSE 100 going down 3,1%. In India, the BSE SENSEX closed 1.942 punto to the drop to 35.635, in what the NSE Nifty 50 went down 538 punto to 10.451.
The Washington Post posited that the agitation related with the illness pandémica could ocasionar a collapse of the bubble of the corporate debt, ocasionando and worsening a recession. The Central Bank of Russia did to know that it would suspend the shopping of the market of divisas in the domestic markets by 30 days, in what the Central Bank Brazilians auctioned $ 3,465 extra millions the market of divisas in 2 separate transactions and the Bank of Mexico increased his auctions of divisas. Program of $ 20 billion to $ 30 billion. Afterwards to announce a program of fiscal stimulus of 120.000 million dollars on 2 December, the Japanese prime minister, Shinzo Abe, did to know an additional public expense, in what the minister of Finances of Indonesia, Sri Mulyani, besides did to know an additional stimulus.
Black Thursday (12 March)
The black Thursday has been a fall of the world-wide stock market on 12 March 2020, like part of the biggest fall of the stock market of 2020. The American stock markets suffered the greater fall porcentual in a day from the fall of the stock exchange of 1987. From the Black Monday 3 days Previously, the Black Thursday attributed to the illness pandémica of coronavirus and to the lack of confidence of the investors in the mandator of USE, Donald Trump, Afterwards that it manifested a prohibition of trip of 30 days against the zone Schengen. Besides, the Central Bank European, directed by Christine Lagarde, took the decision of not cutting the types of interest in spite of the expectations of the market, which caused a fall of the futures of the S&P 500 of enough more than 200 punto in less than an hour.
Bank Indonesia did to know shopping in the open market of 4 trillion rupees (or 276,53 million dollars) in bonos governmental, in the meantime that the governor of the Bank of Indonesia, Perry Warjiyo, manifested that the shopping of bonos governmental in the open market of the Bank of Indonesia had gone up to 130 trillion rupees in the year and 110 trillion rupees from finals of January . In spite of denying to cut his tax of tank, the Central Bank European increased his shopping of active in 120.000 million euros (or 135.000 million dollars), in what the Federal Reservation did to know 1,5 trillion dollars in shopping in the open market. The Australian prime minister, Scott Morrison, did to know a package of fiscal stimulus of 17.600 million Australian dollars. The Bank of the Reservation of the Indian did to know that it would carry out a canje of divisas of $ 2 billion by American dollars along 6 months, in the meantime that the Bank of the Reservation of Australia did to know the repurchase of bonos governmental by $ 8,8 billion. The Central Bank Brazilians auctioned $ 1,780 millions in punto of divisas.
The stock markets of Asia-Pacífico closed (with the Nikkei 225 of the Stock exchange of Tokyo, the Index Hang Seng of the Stock exchange of Hong Kong and the IDX Composite of the Stock exchange of Indonesia falling to more than 20% by down of his maxima of 52 weeks ), The stock markets of Europe closed with a fall of 11% (with the index FTSE 100 in the Stock exchange of London, the DAX in the Stock exchange of Frankfurt, the CAC 40 in the Euronext Paris and the FTSE MIB in the Borsa Italian closing all enough more than 20 % by down of his more recent beaks), in what the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed with an additional fall of 10% (eclipsando the record of a day predetermined on 9 March), the NASDAQ Composite went down 9,4% and the S&P 500 went down 9,5% ( with the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 besides falling to more than 20% by down of his beaks), and the falls activated the commercial brake in the New York Stock Exchange for the second time said week. The costs of the oil fell 8%, in the meantime that the performances of the titles of the Treasure of EE. UU. To 10 and 30 years increased to 0,86% and 1,45% (and his curve of performance concluded with normality).
Crash
The industrial average Dow Jones and the index S&P 500 of EE. UU. They suffered the biggest fall porcentual in a day from the fall of the stock market of 1987, to the equal that the FTSE 100 of the Realm Unified, that fell 10,87%. The index composed of Canada S & P / TSX fell 12%, his bigger fall in a day from 1940. The Italian index FTSE MIB closed with a loss of 16,92%, the worst of his history. The DAX of Germany fell 12,24% and the CAC of France 12,28%. In Brazil, the Ibovespa collapsed 14,78%, after the negotiation of the B3 detained 2 times in the intradía; besides it moved by down of the mark of 70.000 previous to close by on top of her. The NIFTY 50 in the National Stock exchange of Values of the Indian fell 7.89% to more than 20% by down of his more existent beak, in what the BSE SENSEX in the Stock exchange of Bombay fell 2.919 (or 8.18%) to 32.778. The stock market index of allusion in the Stock exchange of Johannesburg fell 9,3%. The MERVAL in the Stock exchange of Business of Buenos Aires fell 9,5% to 19,5% in the week. On 12 March it has been the second time, from 9 March, that activated the disyuntor of fall of 7% from that implemented in 2013.
In Colombia, the weight marked a historical minimum in front of the dollar of United States, once that it negotiated by on top of the 4000 weights by first occasion registered. The Mexican weight besides marked a historical minimum in front of the dollar of United States, cotizando to 22,99 weights.
Black Monday II (16 March)
Along the previous weekend, the Monetary Authority of Saudi Arabia did to know a package of line of credit of 13.000 million dollars for small and average organisations, in what the mandator of South Africa, Cyril Ramaphosa, did to know a package of fiscal stimulus. The Federal Reservation did to know that recortaría the purpose of the tax of federal bottoms to 0% ?0.25%, it would diminish the requirements of reservation to zero and would begin a program of flexibilización quantitative of $ 700 billion.
The futures of Dow fell enough more than 1.000 punto and the futures of Standard & Poor's 500 fell 5%, which caused a disyuntor. The Monday 16 March, the stock exchanges of Asia-Pacífico and Europe closed (with the S & P / ASX 200 marking a record fall of a day of 9,7%, collapsing 30% from the beak reached on 20 February). The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the NASDAQ Composite and the S&P 500 fell between 12% and 13%, and the Dow eclipsó the record of fall of a day predetermined on 12 March and the brake of negotiation activated to the start of the negotiation by third time. Time (after the 9 and 12 March). The costs of the oil fell 10%, in what the performances of the values of the Treasure of EE. UU. To 10 and 30 years fell to 0,76% and 1,38% respectively (whereas his curve of performance kept common by third session of consecutive negotiation).
The index of volatility Cboe closed in 82,69 on 16 March, the greater closing never registered for the index (although there were beaks intradiarios more elevated in 2008). Around the midday of 16 March, the Bank of the Federal Reservation of New York did to know that it would do a repurchase of 500.000 million dollars along the afternoon of that day. The minister of Finances of Indonesia, Sri Mulyani, did to know an additional fiscal stimulus of 22 trillion rupees. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey diminished his lace forzoso of 8% to 6%. The Bank of Japan did to know that it would not diminish his banking tax from less 0,1%, nonetheless that would do more shopping in the open market of sought-after bottoms in stock exchange. Afterwards to cut his type of banking interest in 25 basic punto on 7 February, the Central Bank of Russia did to know that it would keep his type of banking interest in 6%, in what the Bank of Korea did to know that recortaría his type of interest to a day in 50 basic appearances until 0,75%. . The Central Bank of Chile recortó his tax of allusion, in the meantime that the Bank of the Reservation of New Zealand recortó his tax of effective official in 75 basic appearances to 0.25%. The National Bank Czech did to know that recortaría his type of banking interest in 50 basic punto until 1,75%.
USE
Payrolls no agricultural of EE. UU., 2005-February of 2021
Previous to the illness pandémica, there were signals of recession. The curve of performance of EE. UU. It invested to the rededor of 2019, which mainly suggests a following recession.
From March of 2020, the loss of places of work has been immediate. They lost some 16 million places of work in USES them in the 3 weeks that finalised on 4 April. The demands of unemployment reached a record, with 3,3 million demands presented in the week that finalised on 21 March. (The previous record was of 700.000 from 1982). Nevertheless, the week that finalised on 28 March, the demands of unemployment established another record in 6,7 millions and for 13 May, the new demands had surpassed the 35 millions. On 8 May, the Office of Labour Statistics informed a figure of unemployment Or-3 (official unemployment) of 14,7%, the maximum degree registered from 1941, with the unemployment Or-6 (total of unemployed more hard-working marginally linked and subempleados part time) reaching 22,8%.
For the personal states, the Office of Labour Statistics informed that the unemployment Or-3 maximum occurred in April of 2020 in Nevada (30,1%), Michigan (24,0%) and Hawai (23,8%), levels no observed from the Great Depression. They followed him Rhode Island in April (18,1%), Massachusetts in June (17,7%) and Ohio in April (17,6%). For December of 2020, the taxes of unemployment of the 3 higher states were recovering : Nevada (9,2%), Michigan (7,5%) and Hawai (9,3%), and other 7 states had recovered by down of 4,0%. Nevertheless, a high percentage of those gains can have been work part time, informed that the labour income in May of 2020 were of 40% part time.
The clientelismo of the restaurants diminished radically along the territory and the paramount airlines diminished his operations on a large scale. The 3 producing giants of cars detained the production. In April, the work of new houses fell 30%, reaching the lowest degree in 5 years.
Around 5,4 million Americans lost his safe doctor of February to May of 2020 afterwards to lose his works.
The index of financial stress of the Fed of St. Louis increased sharply of less than zero to 5,8 along March of 2020.el Department of Business of USES informed that the expense of the customers fell a 7,5 percent along the month of March of 2020. It has been the biggest monthly fall from that began the maintenance of registers. In 1959. Like consequence, the gross internal product of the territory diminished to a tax of the 4.8 percent along the first quarter of 2020.
The biggest legislation of economic stimulus in the American history, a package of 2 trillion dollars designated Law CARES, has turned into law on 27 March 2020.
The Office of Budget of the Congress informed in May of 2020 that:
? The tax of unemployment happened of 3,5% in February to 14,7% in April, which involves a bajón of enough more than 25 million individuals occupied, more other 8 million individuals that went out populational active.
? The decreasing of employments centred in industries that are subject to the "relations in person", like the retail business, the education, the services of health, the rest and the hospitality industry. Exemplifying, 8 of the 17 million employments of rest and hospitality industry lost in March and April.
? It expected that the economic effect prejudiced more to the smallest organisations and new, due to the fact that commonly they possess less financial mattress.
? The expense of the real consumer (adjusted to the inflation) fell 17% of February to April, once that the social distance reached his higher point. In April, the sales of cars and vans were 49% by down of the monthly average of aims of 2019. The demands of mortgages fell 30% in April of 2020 in front of April of 2019.
? It predicted that the Gross Internal Product real would fall to a near annual tax to 38% in the second quarter, or 11,2% comparatively with the previous quarter, with a return to an increase intertrimestral positive of 5,0% in the third quarter and of 2,5% in the fourth quarter of 2020. Nevertheless, , it did not expect that the Gross Internal Product real recovered his degree of the fourth quarter of 2019 until 2022 or afterwards.
? It predicted that the tax of unemployment promediará 11,5% in 2020 and 9,3% in 2021.
? In June of 2020, the economic forecaster Jim Cramer mentioned that the reply to the recession of the coronavirus has carried to one of the biggest transfers of wealth to the ultrarricos in the up to date history. On 30 July 2020, it informed that the gross internal product of the second quarter of EE. UU. It fell to a tax anualizada of 33%.
Hispanic
It expects that the recession caused by coronavirus was the worst in the chronicle of Latin America. It expects that the Latin American nations fall in a "stray decade", with the Gross Internal Product of Latin America going back to the levels of 2010, falling 9,1%. The portion in which it expects that it fall the Gross Internal Product by territory enumerates afterwards.
Contraction of the Gross Internal Product of the territory
- Mexico:
The perspectives of Mexico already were bad previous to the crisis, with a slight recession in 2019.The plans of economic development of the mandator Andrés Manuel López Obrador were based in the gains of the oil state Pemex, however the collapse of the cost of the oil now has created doubts on those plans. Further of the oil, the economy of the territory besides is dependent of the tourism, the business with USE and the remesas, that besides see damaged. All the mentioned drove to this that can be the worst recession of Mexico in a century, and the worst of Latin America afterwards of Venezuela. In addition to this prediction, the contraction of the economy of Mexico in 2020 has been minor that the one of Venezuela, Peru, Panama, Argentina and the same to the one of Ecuador.
- Venezuela -26%
- Peru -13%
- Brazil -10,5%
- Argentina -9,2%
- Ecuador -9%
- Mexico -9%
- The Saviour -8,6%
- Nicaragua -8,3%
- Cuba -8%
- Chile -7,9%
- Panama -6,5%
- Honduras -6,1%
- Colombia -5,6%
- Costa Rica -5,5%
- Dominican Republic -5,3%
- Bolivia -5,2%
- Uruguay -5%
- Guatemala -4,1%
- Paraguay -2,3%
Other sources have the possibility to await different figures. In Panama, expects that coronavirus subtract US $ 5,8 billion of the Gross Internal Product of Panama. One of the reasons of the fall of Chile is the reduction of the demand of copper of EE. UU. And Chinese because of the coronavirus.
Canada
In June of 2020, the tax of national unemployment in Canada was of 12,5%, in front of 13,7% May.
The total unemployment increased in 3 millions and the total of hours worked fell 30% between February and April of 2020. The sales of construction of Canada in March fell to the lowest degree from mediated of 2016, due to the fact that the sales of the elaboradores of cars and providers of spares collapsed more than 30%.
In reply, the Regimen Canadian put diverse profits, between them, the Profit of reply of Canadian emergency, the Profit of student of Canadian emergency and the Subsidio salarial of Canadian emergency.
China
Like consequence of the recession, the economy of China contracted by first occasion in almost 50 years. The Gross Internal Product national for the first quarter of 2020 fell 6,8% interanual, 10,0% Inter quarterly, and the Gross Internal Product of the province of Hubei fell 39,2% in the same lapse.
In May of 2020, the Chinese prime minister Li Keqiang did to know that, by first occasion in the history, the regimen central would not establish an aim of economic increase for 2020, due to the fact that the economy contracted 6,8% comparatively with 2019 and China confronta to a while "impredecible". . Nevertheless, the regimen besides manifested his intention to produce 9 million new urban employments until finals of 2020.
In October of 2020, did know that the Gross Internal Product of the third quarter of China had grown 4,9%, by which did not fulfil the expectations of the analysts (that they established in 5,2%). Nevertheless, yes it shows that the economy of China has been recovering of form reiterated of the effect of the covid-19 that produced a low increase in decades. To boost the economic increase, the territory reserved million million dollars for notable projects of infrastructure and used politics of populational follow-up and applied the rigorous blockade to contain the virus. It is the exclusive fundamental economy that expects that it grow in 2020, in accordance with the FMI.
For December of 2020, the economic recovery of China was accelerating along an increasing demand of products manufacturados. The Centre of Averiguación Economic and Business with base in the Realm Unified projected that the "skillful administration of the illness pandémica" of China would realise that the Chinese economy surpassed to the one of United States and did the most enormous economy of all the world by Gross Internal Product nominal in 2028, 5 years antecedent of the longed for.
Conclusion
United States is the pais that handles the coin but inflada and but big all over the world, being but of 60% of the money the dolar. At present but of 21m of families of USES have debts the economic impact of the protests in the EE. UU. It has exacerbated the recession of the COVID-19 when reducing drastically the confidence of the consumer. With a cost estimated of $50 millions. However, because of the blockade implemented to brake the propagation of the virus before the moment of the first protests, the unemployment increased in a sudden way in less than a month, leaving to more than 21 millions without alone work in EE. UU. (Of 3 +% to 14 +% ), that also supported the necessary circumstances for durable protests. Several small companies, that already were suffering the economic impact of the pandemia of COVID-19, suffered damages by vandalism, destruction of properties and saqueos. You touch them of it remains established by the local governments - in reply so much to the pandemia as to the protests - also have restricted the access to the [areas] of the centre" to the essential workers, reducing the economic production. And this is not the unica protests at present. Several paises estan levantandose, giving of examples to paises of america Latin or UK. Ademas Of the increase of taxes, and the impresion of but and but money.
In the personal think that the banks estan better prepared for this possible new crisis, that is normal, the market is cycle, no bandages. Holdea Your active, or looks for a form to protect you. Those that won seran those bear the stray in the short term. But they win on a long-term basis. We can notice that crisis of 2008 is quite similar to what live at present. I am not positive in ningun market, this informacion is recopilada, no all is written by my person, but expect help you. At present they exist but of 1000 shorts in the economia global of part of the institutional, informate and studies. And mantente firm. A greeting.
הערה
I just realized that there are some words in Spanish, but tradingview will not let me edit the idea after 15min ... Sorry ... They are few but I feel like I wasted the job
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