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BTCUSD: Repeating July's blood bath?

מעודכן

I wanted to point out this pattern, it seems we are repeating the July correction in BTCUSD. I'm long with margin from $870 in , and also holding my altcoin portfolio, awaiting higher highs in it. I'm not as confident on higher highs for though, but will be glad to be proven wrong if that's the case. For now, what is clear is that we fell hard enough to spook new longs out and the smart money scooped all available supply at the bottom. Interestingly, right on time for futures expirations. It might not be connected at all, but people are focusing on this at least. The other factor is the talk of joint regulatory action, but this might take a long time to pan out, and by then we might already be at new ATH and ready for an even worse blood bath.

Long term charts show two possible scenarios, either topped already and we are in the sideways/bear market phase, before enough time elapses to reset and start a bull market again, or we haven't topped and we will by May or June. This is the scenario that I think is more probable, judging by the fundamental events yet to come, like the deployment of Lightning network channels to finally solve transaction cost issues and blockchain bloat and spam by miners among other technical break throughs core developers are working on.
For now, I'm long , to benefit from this, as well as holding margin long positions in and spot holdings in select altcoins. There's a chance my , , , forecasts pan out, which would imply massive outperformance in them probably. I recently added to my holdings before the last big rally in it. I'm holding and looking to add once I close my margin long at the top, once hits $2600 by March (IF it does).

Cheers,

Ivan Labrie.

הערה

After performing in depth analysis of all possible variables, I concluded that exposure in will be far more productive than any other altcoin, so I swapped my crypto portfolio back to , after making a very good gain during its decline since December.

There's a significantly big chance of hitting $80436, if we break up into new all time highs and don't go any lower from here. It's worth trying to reach those heights, since in most scenarios, would fare better than alts now:

#1 BTC breaks into new ATH and hits $80436 at the peak. If it does, will go to like $2600, which is a smaller % gain for instance. wins.

#2 BTC stagnates and falls/goes sideways. If it does, alts won't fare much better and many times have shown that they get liquidated to , to then sell the for cash, which causes them to underperform. 's volatility would probably be lower anyways.

So, win-win, HODL from here onwards. Only HODL what you can afford to see fluctuate wildly in value. Mine is mainly a hedge for middle men everywhere, like exposure to brokerage firms and banks, and constituted only 25% of my net worth since the last time I rebalanced my portfolio.

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Positive fundamentals favor 's outperformance:

-Schnorr signatures bring many needed improvements and cost reductions, as well as privacy protection features to BTC.
-Lightning network being deployed as we speak. Over time, this will solve scalability issues.
-RSK coming soon, smart contract functionality would render useless. Sharding won't come any time son, plasma or Raiden either.

Sentiment and positioning too: most people either gave up and sold out, or, they claim that due to seasonality, altcoin/BTC charts will go up strongly, similarly to previous years. This is now an established belief, a sort of creed of bitcoin traders...Beliefs like
this tend to be demolished by the market, as it moves in the direction that confuses the most people possible.

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Estimate of the timing for a breakout and the subsequent rally to $80436 in

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Support holding in , we might take a bit longer to rally to my targets around 80k

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As irritating as this decline is for someone who holds and watches the chart -at first sight at least-, this is simply repeating a similar type of pattern to that of the September 2017 bottom, this would be Sept 22nd...

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So far so good.

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I added to my long term stash, from cash I held for this purpose. I had sold in December, so, a lot higher.

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We could flush margin longs going lower first but I'm pretty sure we are about to bottom or already bottomed. I keep some 'corn' ready to be used as collateral to hedge on a bounce if needed, but not in a rush to short. I like the sentiment and arrogance of bears right now, and the intense dismay and capitulation in new bulls who bought the top...but I'm aware of many who haven't capitulated yet, which need to do it for it to turn up.

The chart shows a buy signal confirming potentially in 2 more days, and one confirming later on, if we fail to get follow through to the downside.
I marked the $8888 level, which might be a good spot for it to bottom, considering the nature of the traders involved in this market...hint: many chinese whales.

הערה

could be about to bottom here

It is uncertain if we will go lower next week after the CTFC/SEC news come out though...I banked my shorts for now, we can reenter on retrace probably, if needed.

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appears to have bottomed here (for now)

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Price must hold here, else we will go to $5000 - chart

I'll be asessing sentiment and monitoring short term charts to determine if we do hold. I like how we broke most trendlines, need to make everyone freak out first.

הערה

We added to longs near the bottom:

It could have bottomed here, after liquidating margin longs.

IvanLabrie

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BTCUSD: Long term forecast/guess

מאת ‎IvanLabrie‎

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