I look at trends in different timeframes, but the biggest pattern we can discern is the one with the biggest relevance, that may make lower timeframe signals fail at critical turning points.
The 2 month timeframe bars indicate we should go sideways in a range, or back down to $442 by June 2019 or sooner, but, in general, this tells us that there is no chance of seeing further growth in the long term trend, until enough time passes to cool off and at the same time let the smart money accumulate and absorb the supply from frustrated buyers who get trapped in loss over time.
From that initial asessment that we made, that was a prediction for a top in December 2017, for 20 months, two paths open up: sideways for 20 months, down to $442 within 20 months. It doesn't mean that the bottom will ONLY be found in that time, it could be that gyrations in shorter term time scales cause price to eventually bottom sooner than that, to then base going sideways after an initial bounce -like it happened in 2015 when we almost hit $150. It bounced, then went sideways at a higher level before going up.-
We don't know the exact shape of the bear market, but we could predict prices wouldn't continue the violent growth we saw during 2016 and 2017, contrary to popular belief at the time -back in December-.
I know that most people fomo'd in after we broke 10k, initially, until it hit the top, so that range of prices is less likely to hold if revisited, since it would let them break even. Break even sellers would put pressure on advancing prices approaching that zone.
From lower timeframes, we see that there was a weekly and 3 day per bar timeframe downtrend. The 3 day tf one ended already. Since the time for the 3 day trend expired in April 4-6th, the implications from that timeframe are that price should return to the distribution level, the mode or price with the most activity during the sideways range after an initial decline from the top, or alternatively, grind sideways and form a new distribution level, down here.
Since price jumped up already, it's clear it wants to retest the sellers' up at the distribution level I drew in black in my chart here.
Daily trend had a potential bearish signal, that failed to work, as price moved back over the potential distribution level, it became clear that bulls were accumulating long positions, absorbing supply from shorts, who got squeezed on yesterday's jump. Now with no more sellers left, this should glide higher from here.
Additionally, the daily has a new 9 day uptrend signal in place now, so we can expect upside from that timeframe for that long at least. In time, by April 22nd, the weekly trend will also be up, so we will have daily, 3-day, weekly, all pointing up, and 2-month tf pointing sideways/down. By the time the upside is met as per lower timeframe expectations, it's likely that higher timeframe sellers will strike again, with a vengeance, as we test the place from where most of the selling took place at.